布伦特原油价格上周收于 88.45 美元，本周收于 90.65 美元。WTI 价格上周收于 85.55 美元，本周收于 87.51 美元。DME 阿曼原油价格上周收于 89.72 美元，本周收于 91.85 美元。

OPEC+延长减产措施克服了对全球经济和石油需求的担忧，并推动布伦特原油价格自 2022 年 11 月以来首次突破 90 美元。自沙特阿拉伯宣布自愿减产 1.0 MMbbl/ 7月3日，布伦特原油价格从74.65美元反弹。石油市场近期的发展符合我们的预期，即 OPEC+ 将根据需要积极调整供应，以抵消令人失望的经济消息和负面的交易员情绪。此外，我们预测石油需求充足，加上供应减少，将导致石油市场出现短缺，因此，油价将呈上升趋势，尽管不是直线上升。

然而，展望未来，由于沙特阿拉伯的产量目前降至 9.0 MMbbl/d，供应削减不太可能进一步提振。我们还认为，鉴于价格上涨，以及 OPEC+ 的有效闲置产能接近 6.0 MMbbl/d，其他 OPEC+ 产油国增加供应的吸引力将越来越大。此外，虽然有减产，但也有其他公司正在增加产量。此前，我们强调了非洲生产商（包括尼日利亚和利比亚）和受制裁生产商（即委内瑞拉和伊朗）产量的增加。尽管钻机数量一直在减少，但今年美国的产量继续增加。造成这种明显矛盾的因素有以下几个：

• 与新冠疫情之前相比，二叠纪盆地的产量大幅增加，在美国总产量中所占的份额更大。
• 在二叠纪盆地，尽管钻机数量较低，但每月完井数量已达到新冠疫情前的水平，因为 DUC 井的库存已从 2020 年 7 月的 3,514 口下降到 2023 年 7 月的 856 口。
• 二叠纪盆地的钻井活动变得更加高效，每台钻机的井数增加了 19%。
• 与 2019 年相比，二叠纪水平井的平均横向长度增加了约 15%，而平均支撑剂装载量增加了约 7%。
• 更长的横向长度和增加的支撑剂装载量导致二叠纪井的性能比 2019 年提高了约 15%。

未来一周，我们预计布伦特原油价格将横盘整理。

有关成品油和价格的完整预测，请参阅我们的短期展望。

作者简介： John E. Paise ， Stratas Advisors总裁，负责管理全球研究和咨询业务。在加入 Stratas Advisors 之前，Paisie 是总部位于华盛顿特区的战略咨询公司 PFC Energy 的合伙人，负责领导全球业务，专注于帮助客户（包括国际石油公司、国家石油公司、独立石油公司和政府）了解未来市场环境和竞争格局，设定适当的战略方向并实施战略举措。他在 IBM 咨询公司（原普华永道、普华永道咨询公司）工作了八年多，担任专注于能源领域的战略变革实践的副合伙人，同时居住在休斯顿、新加坡、北京和伦敦。

The price of Brent crude ended the week at $90.65 after closing the previous week at $88.45. The price of WTI ended the week at $87.51 after closing the previous week at $85.55. The price of DME Oman ended the week at $91.85 after closing the previous week at $89.72.

The extension of the supply cuts from OPEC+ have been able to overcome concerns about the global economy and oil demand and to push price of Brent crude above $90 for the first time since November 2022. Since Saudi Arabia announced a voluntary production cut of 1.0 MMbbl/d on July 3, the price of Brent Crude has rebounded from $74.65. The recent developments in the oil market have aligned with our expectation that OPEC+ would be proactive in adjusting supply as required to counteract disappointing economic news and negative trader sentiment. Additionally, we forecasted that oil demand would be sufficient, along with the supply cuts, to push the oil market into a deficit, and consequently, oil price would move forward on an upward trend, albeit not on a straight line.

Looking forward, however, a further boost from supply cuts is unlikely with Saudi Arabia’s production currently reduced to 9.0 MMbbl/d. We also think it will be increasingly tempting for other OPEC+ producers to increase supply given the higher prices and that the effective spare capacity of OPEC+ is approaching 6.0 MMbbl/d. Additionally, while there have been production cuts, there are others that are increasing their production. Previously, we highlighted increasing production from African producers (including Nigeria and Libya) and sanctioned producers (namely Venezuela and Iran). U.S. production continues to increase this year, even though the rig count has been decreasing. There are several factors that are resulting in this apparent contradiction:

• Production from the Permian has been increasing significantly and contributing a greater share of overall U.S. production in comparison with the pre-COVID period.
• In the Permian Basin, the monthly completion count has reached pre-COVID levels, despite the low rig count because the inventory of DUC wells has declined from 3,514 wells in July 2020 to 856 wells in July 2023.
• Drilling activity in the Permian Basin is becoming more efficient with wells per rig increasing by 19%.
• The average lateral length of a horizontal Permian well has increased by around 15% in comparison to 2019, while the average proppant loading has increased by approximately 7%.
• The longer lateral lengths and the increased proppant loading has resulted in the performance of Permian wells increasing by around 15% compared to their performance in 2019.

For the upcoming week, we are expecting that the price of Brent crude oil will drift sideways.

For a complete forecast of refined products and prices, please refer to our Short-term Outlook.

About the Author: John E. Paise, president of Stratas Advisors, is responsible for managing the research and consulting business worldwide. Prior to joining Stratas Advisors, Paisie was a partner with PFC Energy, a strategic consultancy based in Washington, D.C., where he led a global practice focused on helping clients (including IOCs, NOC, independent oil companies and governments) to understand the future market environment and competitive landscape, set an appropriate strategic direction and implement strategic initiatives. He worked more than eight years with IBM Consulting (formerly PriceWaterhouseCoopers, PwC Consulting) as an associate partner in the strategic change practice focused on the energy sector while residing in Houston, Singapore, Beijing and London.