根据 Rystad Energy 的最新研究，随着开发新的上游石油项目的成本不断上升，中东陆上是新石油产量最便宜的来源

据雷斯塔能源公司称，受通胀压力和供应链问题影响，非欧佩克石油项目的平均盈亏平衡成本上升至每桶布伦特原油 47 美元，仅去年一年就上涨了 5%。海上深水和致密油项目仍然是最经济的新供应来源，而油砂仍然是最昂贵的。

报告发现，中东陆上是新产油最便宜的来源，平均盈亏平衡价格仅为每桶 27 美元。这一领域也拥有最大的资源潜力之一。海上大陆架是下一个最便宜的（每桶 37 美元），其次是海上深水区 （43 美元）和北美页岩（45 美元）。相反，油砂生产盈亏平衡价格平均为每桶 57 美元，但最高可达 75 美元左右。

成本压力

Rystad Energy 上游研究主管 Espen Erlingsen 表示：“盈亏平衡价格上涨反映了上游行业成本压力的增加。这对一些新项目的经济可行性提出了挑战，但某些领域（包括海上和致密油）仍提供具有竞争力的成本，确保仍能提供供应以满足未来的需求。控制这些成本上涨对于维持长期产量增长至关重要。 ”

除了盈亏平衡，新项目的平均回报、内部收益率 (IRR) 和二氧化碳 (CO2) 强度也是评估新石油开发经济性的重要指标。假设平均油价为每桶 70 美元，致密油行业的回报时间仅为两年，这表明运营商正在迅速收回投资。其他供应部门的回报时间接近 10 年或更长。致密油在 IRR 方面也处于领先地位，在相同的平均油价情景下，估计 IRR 约为 35%。相反，最昂贵的供应来源油砂的 IRR 最低，约为 12%。

过去三年，致密油的平均二氧化碳强度为每桶油当量 14 千克（kg/boe），而深水油田的平均二氧化碳强度略高，为每桶油当量 15 千克。油砂行业再次落后于其他行业，未来最高排放量估计为每桶油当量 70 千克左右。

Onshore Middle East is the cheapest source of new oil production, as the cost of developing new upstream oil projects continues to rise, according to new research from Rystad Energy

According to Rystad Energy, the average breakeven cost of a non-OPEC oil project grew to US$47 per barrel of Brent crude, a 5% increase in the last year alone, thanks to inflationary pressure and supply chain issues. Offshore deepwater and tight oil projects remain the most economical new supply sources, with oil sands still the most expensive.

The report found that onshore Middle East is the cheapest source of new production, with an average breakeven price of just US$27 per barrel. This segment also boasts one of the most significant resource potentials. Offshore shelf is the next cheapest (US$37 per barrel), followed by offshore deepwater (US$43) and North American shale (US$45). Conversely, oil sands production breakevens average US$57 per barrel, but can go as high as around US$75.

Cost pressures

"Rising breakeven prices reflect the increasing cost pressures on the upstream industry. This challenges the economic feasibility of some new projects, but certain segments, including offshore and tight oil, continue to offer competitive costs, ensuring supply can still be brought online to meet future demand. Managing these cost increases will be critical to sustaining long-term production growth,” said Espen Erlingsen, head of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy.

As well as breakevens, average payback for new projects, internal rate of return (IRR) and carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity are vital metrics for evaluating new oil development economics. The tight oil sector’s payback time is just two years, assuming an average oil price of US$70 per barrel, illustrating how quickly operators are recovering their investments. Payback time is closer to 10 years or more for the other supply segments. Tight oil also leads the pack in terms of IRR, with an estimated IRR of around 35% in the same average oil price scenario. Conversely, oil sands, the most expensive supply source, has the lowest IRR of approximately 12%.

Over the last three years, the average CO2 intensity for tight oil has been 14 kilograms per barrel of oil equivalent (kg per boe), while deepwater has a slightly higher average CO2 intensity of 15 kg per boe. The oil sands sector again falls behind the other segments, with the highest future estimated emissions at around 70 kg per boe.