After years of pandemic-induced downturn, the oil and gas industry is in the midst of a much needed exploration resurgence, industry executives said at the opening session of the IMAGE 2024 conference.
“We’re starting to see a bit of return to [exploration], I think, within the industry and it’s going to be needed,” said Tracey Henderson, executive vice president of exploration at Apache. “When we talk about 2050— some of the recent numbers I saw from WoodMac were that by 2034 we’re going to need 22 million barrels a day to meet demand and offset the decline [from] producing fields.”
The oil and gas industry’s resilience is being seen in investments and dealmaking.
Earlier this year, Exxon Mobil acquired Pioneer Natural Resources in a $60 billion blockbuster deal, in part to push its Permian production to an average 1.3 MMbbl/d. The company expects production to eventually top out at 2 MMbbl/d, said John Ardill, Exxon’s vice president of global exploration.
The company’s international operations offshore Guyana also represents a significant boost in oil and gas production, with oil volumes headed toward 1.2 MMbbl/d.
Despite its two super-producer assets, Exxon is still on the prowl for its “next Permian,” Ardill said. The company is exploring areas such as Algeria, which has “the gas potential to supply Europe, and there are other oil source rocks … equally prolific to [the] Permian,” he said.
And Exxon isn’t the only E&P favoring that approach.
High impact exploration is needed to supply energy of the future, said fellow panelist Kevin McLachlan, TotalEnergies’ senior vice president of exploration.
Petronas’ Mohd Redhani agreed.
“During COVID it’s all about doom and gloom for our exploration community, but I think the past five years has shown us the realization that oil and gas is here to stay,” said Redhani, Petronas’ vice president of exploration. “There’s a general consensus that by 2050 and beyond oil and gas would still be in the energy mix—and from the perspective of NOCs [national oil companies] with all these uncertainties over the future of oil and gas, we realize that the piece of transition that everyone is talking about is not going to be the same piece across the world.”
McLachlan said Total is looking at the big picture for future demand.
“We need to be understanding of the macroclimate,” he said. “We need to understand where our company’s strategies are and make sure that we’re delivering discoveries that match all of those that we’re producing into the right environment, the right place with the right types of discoveries done at low cost.”
But finding the balance between costs, discoveries and meeting future energy demand is easier said than done, McLachlan said.
Redhani said those future barrels will be competing against others in a market with less demand.
“It is imperative that we are able to deliver value for the barrels that we find…,” Redhani said. “Otherwise you’ll be competing with a smaller demand with a lot of low emission, low contaminants, and so on.”
Redhani said Petronas has been looking to use newer technologies in previously drilled areas and wells.
In 2022, the company considered how it could be more aggressive in exploring “in our own backyard,” he said.
“So what we did was go back into all those areas where we think the data wasn’t so good, and the technology didn’t allow us to see as well as we can today, and the drill technology did not allow” to target deeper areas.
Looking back at old wells is just one way for E&Ps to optimize efficiency while reaching emissions goals.
Panelists agreed that working together with geoscientists, as well as implementing technological advances such as machine learning, automation and artificial intelligence, hold the answers to supplying enough energy for the planet.
McLachlan said E&Ps’ goal— regardless of individual goals, regulatory requirements or national mandates— is to address greenhouse-gas emissions.
“We need to decarbonize, and we know that we can do that,” McLachlan said. “Our new developments that we’re about to sanction, they come in with much lower intensity because of the types of developments … so the role is real and this will be a part of it.
“But we’re not going to replace the geoscientists they’re needed. They’re going to have to work in new ways, integrating data and multivariate data using artificial intelligence for new volumes.”