评论：2023年全球常规棕地投资将接近2000亿美元

南美洲和北非的棕地投资将出现增长。

Palzor Shenga，Rystad 能源公司

随着石油和天然气行业和全球经济从大流行引发的需求下滑中复苏，今年传统上游行业的棕地投资预计将达到近 2000 亿美元。 

中东地区的支出水平将处于领先地位，亚洲和南美市场在未来几年也将吸引大量投资。在这篇评论中，Rystad Energy 探讨了今年以及本十年剩余时间内棕地投资将部署在传统开发项目中的哪些地方。

全球市场脆弱性加上疫情导致石油和天然气行业支出急剧下降，勘探与生产公司大幅削减上游常规投资。布伦特原油平均价格约为 42 美元/桶，上游行业 2020 年资本支出（不包括勘探支出）较 2019 年下降约 19%。不过，随着市场正常化，该行业已开始复苏。条件和能源价格飞涨。 

与 2021 年相比，去年全球上游支出增长了约 10%，这主要是由于绿地投资增长所致，绿地投资增长了 14%，而棕地投资增长了 5%。这凸显了制裁活动的复苏，其中包括一些可能严重影响全球供应的关键延迟项目。然而，棕地支出的激增凸显了现有成熟油田的相关性以及这些油田持续供应和维护的重要性。 

棕地活动的增加——主要涉及增产、重返、填充活动、检查和维护等活动——通过增加最终可采量和通过最大化现金来提高运营效率，在延长项目寿命方面发挥着重要作用流向生产寿命的末端，同时为区域参与者提供了机会，以投资那些利润较低、边际性或属于大型全球参与者的非核心资产类别的资产。

成熟油田主导棕地投资

全球常规产量继续以成熟油田为主，2022年成熟油田贡献了累计常规产量的60%以上，并将继续占据最大份额。这些成熟油田去年的产量占累计可采量的 50% 以上，因此在全球供应方面仍然具有高度相关性。 

由于未来几年布伦特原油价格预计将徘徊在 80 美元/桶至 90 美元/桶之间，Rystad Energy 估计全球传统棕地支出将在 2023 年继续增长，可能接近 2000 亿美元，并在本十年末保持稳定。 

预计棕地支出的约 60% 将用于优化 20 世纪 80 年代或 1990 年代上线的油田的生产，这一事实凸显了支出与项目成熟度之间的相互联系。其余的将服务于目前处于生产早期阶段或已超过峰值产量水平的油田。 

考虑到棕地支出通常在油田启动后两三年开始，具体取决于资源潜力，我们发现棕地投资的油田在 2022 年贡献了约 121 MMboe 的石油和天然气，其中 63% 是液体，其余是天然气。预计到 2040 年，这些油田的供应量将下降至约 62,000 桶油当量/天。尽管如此，这些油田将在满足全球石油和天然气需求方面发挥重要作用。 

如果我们只考虑液体，根据 Rystad Energy 的分析，在我们平均假设下，全球气温比工业化前水平上升 1.9°C 的情况下，全球液体需求估计约为 103 MMbbl/d，下降至 85 MMbbl 左右到 2040 年，大部分需求将由当前棕地活动的油田满足，到 2030 年将占全球液体需求的 60%，到 2040 年将占 50%。这说明了棕地资本支出的相关性以及传统能源的持续重要性。尽管非常规项目的产量预计会增长。

全球常规油田产量展望
常规油田的全球生产前景包括 2019 年之前启动年份和 2020-2022 年启动年份的所有油田——仅考虑 2023 年棕地支出的油田。（来源：Rystad Energy Ecube）

陆上棕地开发占主导地位

陆上部分将继续占据主导地位，约占 2023 年至 2030 年间全球常规棕地年度支出的 69% 左右。其次是近海陆架项目，占 18%，其余部分将用于增强或维护近海深水油田。从现在到 2030 年，中东传统棕地累计支出超过 4000 亿美元，在棕地支出最高的地区中占据主导地位。这凸显了该地区致力于提高和延长其多产传统油田产量的努力。东亚和俄罗斯占据领奖台上的另外两个前三名，预计各自在棕地项目开发上花费约 2250 亿美元。

2023-2030 年全球传统棕地投资的百分比份额。
 2023-2030 年全球传统棕地投资的百分比份额。（来源：Rystad Energy Ecube）

缩小2023年和2024年全球常规棕地投资范围，中国大陆在预计支出最高的国家中占据主导地位，其次是俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯，位列前三。这三个国家主要由国内石油和天然气巨头主导，这些巨头控制着每个国家的大部分碳氢化合物项目，这表明国家石油公司将在未来几年投资增加中发挥关键作用。中石油、中石化和中海油将引领中国的棕地投资，沙特阿美公司在沙特阿拉伯也将采取同样的做法，而俄罗斯石油公司、俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司和卢克石油公司则在俄罗斯处于领先地位。此外，在俄罗斯去年入侵乌克兰以及随后的制裁和持续的战争之后，持有该国一些关键资产权益的大型企业退出后，俄罗斯参与者将不得不提高其投资和技术技能。

2023-2030 年全球常规棕地投资最多的地区。
2023-2030 年全球常规棕地投资最多的地区。（来源：Rystad Energy Ecube）

南美、北非将出现“显着复苏” 

除东亚外，南美和北非是继 2020 年的低迷之后，2023 年年度棕地投资将较去年大幅复苏的两个地区。今年这些地区的累计投资将超过 210 亿美元，预计将超过2019年累计总额约增加20亿美元。今年预计投资的约 54% 将由南美洲贡献，其余则由北非贡献。在南美洲，一半以上的支出用于巴西和阿根廷，其中以巴西的 Tupi、Sapinhoa 和 Marlim 等海上项目为主。 

同样，利比亚和阿尔及利亚将在2023年注入该地区约70%的棕地支出。利比亚投资的增加，加上的黎波里解除了对该国石油和天然气勘探的不可抗力， Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh 领导的政府可以帮助该国实现 2 MMbbl/d 的石油产量目标，目前看来有些雄心勃勃。利比亚经历多年内战后运营环境有所改善，导致壳牌、埃尼、英国石油和挪威国家石油公司等主要上游企业将这个欧佩克成员国纳入其投资计划。

2022 年与 2023 年传统棕地投资的差异。
2022 年与 2023 年传统棕地投资的差异。（来源：Rystad Energy Ecube）

随着全球油田的不断成熟，越来越多的项目将参与棕地活动以维持和延长生产。这不仅将提高整体生产力和资源潜力，还将为维护和运营以及油井服务和商品等领域的服务业带来大量合同机会。

原文链接/hartenergy

Commentary: 2023 Global Conventional Brownfield Investment to Near $200 Billion

South America and North Africa to see brownfield investment growth.

Palzor Shenga, Rystad Energy

Brownfield investment in the conventional upstream sector looks on course to hit nearly $200 billion this year as the oil and gas industry and global economy recovers from the pandemic-induced slump in demand. 

The Middle East is set to lead the way with spending levels, with markets in Asia and South America also attracting significant investment in the years ahead. In this commentary, Rystad Energy examines where brownfield investment is set to be deployed in conventional developments this year and for the remainder of the decade.

Global market vulnerabilities combined with the pandemic led to a steep drop in oil and gas industry spending, with E&P companies slashing upstream conventional investment. With an average Brent crude price of around $42/bbl, the upstream industry recorded a drop of around 19% in capital expenditure in 2020, excluding exploration spending, compared to 2019. The industry has, however, started to recover following the normalization of market conditions and soaring energy prices. 

Last year saw an uptick of around 10% in global upstream spending compared to 2021, primarily driven by a rise in greenfield investment, which recorded a 14% rise compared to 5% for brownfield. This highlights the revival of sanctioning activity, comprising some key delayed projects that can significantly impact global supply. The jump in brownfield spending, however, highlights the relevance of existing mature fields and the importance of continuous supply from and maintenance of these fields. 

The increase in brownfield activity – which primarily involves activities such as stimulation, re-entry, infill activities, inspection and maintenance – plays an important role in prolonging the lifetime of a project by increasing ultimate recoverable volumes and enhancing operational efficiency by maximizing cash flow toward the tail end of production life, while providing an opportunity for regional players to farm into assets that could otherwise be less profitable, marginal or fall into the category of non-core assets for large global players.

Mature fields dominate brownfield investment

Global conventional production continues to be dominated by mature fields, which contributed over 60% of cumulative conventional output in 2022 and will continue to produce the lion’s share going forward. These mature fields, which produced more than 50% of cumulative recoverable volumes last year, therefore continue to be highly relevant in terms of global supply. 

With Brent crude prices expected to hover between $80/bbl and $90/bbl over the next couple of years, Rystad Energy estimates global conventional brownfield spending will continue to rise in 2023, potentially nearing $200 billion and remaining stable toward the end of the decade. 

The interconnectivity between the spending and the maturity of projects is highlighted by the fact that around 60% of estimated brownfield spending will be utilized to optimize production at fields that came online in the 1980s or 1990s. The remainder will serve fields currently in the early stage of production or that have passed peak output levels. 

Considering that brownfield spending typically starts two or three years after field start-up, depending on resource potential, we see that the fields with brownfield investment contributed around 121 MMboe of oil and gas in 2022, 63% of which was liquids and the remainder gas. Supply from these fields is expected to decline to about 62,000 boe/d by 2040. Nonetheless, these fields will have an important role to play in meeting global oil and gas demand. 

If we consider only liquids, according to Rystad Energy analysis, global liquids demand under our mean assumption corresponding to a scenario of a 1.9 C global temperature rise above pre-industrial levels is estimated to be around 103 MMbbl/d, dropping to around 85 MMbbl/d by 2040. The majority of this demand will be fulfilled by fields with current brownfield activity, representing 60% of global liquids demand in 2030 and 50% in 2040. This illustrates the relevance of brownfield capital expenditure along with the continued importance of conventional projects, despite the expected growth of production from unconventional projects.

Global production outlook for conventional fields
Global production outlook for conventional fields includes all fields with startup year until 2019 and for startup year 2020-2022 –only fields with brownfield spending in 2023 considered. (Source: Rystad Energy Ecube)

Onshore brownfield development dominates

The onshore segment will continue to dominate, representing around 69% of estimated annual global conventional brownfield spending between 2023 and 2030. This is followed by offshore shelf projects with 18%, while the remainder will be spent on enhancement or maintenance of offshore deepwater fields. The Middle East’s cumulative conventional brownfield spending of over $400 billion significantly dominates amongst regions with the highest brownfield spending between now and 2030. This highlights the region’s drive to enhance and prolong production from its prolific legacy fields. East Asia and Russia occupy the two other top-three spots on the podium and are each estimated to spend around $225 billion on brownfield project development.

Percentage share of global conventional brownfield investment, 2023-2030.
 Percentage share of global conventional brownfield investment, 2023-2030. (Source: Rystad Energy Ecube)

Narrowing down to global conventional brownfield investment for 2023 and 2024, mainland China dominates the list of countries with the highest estimated spending, followed by Russia and Saudi Arabia in the top three. These three countries are heavily dominated by domestic oil and gas giants that control the majority of hydrocarbon projects within each nation, indicating that national oil companies will play a key role in the increase in investments in the coming years. PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC will lead China’s brownfield investments, with Saudi Aramco doing likewise in Saudi Arabia and Rosneft, Gazprom and Lukoil leading the way in Russia. Additionally, Russian players will have to elevate their investment and technical skills following the exit of majors holding participating interests in some of the country’s key assets following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year and the subsequent sanctions and ongoing war.

Top regions with global conventional brownfield investment, 2023-2030.
Top regions with global conventional brownfield investment, 2023-2030. (Source: Rystad Energy Ecube)

South America, North Africa to see ‘significant recovery’ 

Apart from East Asia, South America and North Africa are the two regions where annual brownfield investments will see a significant recovery in 2023 compared to last year, following a dull 2020. Cumulative investment of over $21 billion in these regions this year is set to surpass the 2019 cumulative total by about $2 billion. Some 54% of the projected investment this year will be contributed by South America, and the remainder by North Africa. In South America, more than half of the expenditure is lined up for Brazil and Argentina, dominated by offshore projects such as Tupi, Sapinhoa and Marlim in Brazil. 

Similarly, Libya and Algeria will see an injection of around 70% of the region’s brownfield expenditure for 2023. The increment in investment in Libya, combined with the lifting of the force majeure on oil and gas exploration in the country by the Tripoli-based government of Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, could help the country towards its oil production target of 2 MMbbl/d, which for now appears somewhat ambitious. The improved operational environment in Libya following years of civil war has led key upstream players such as Shell, Eni, BP and Sonatrach to include the OPEC member nation in their investment plans.

Difference in conventional brownfield investment 2022 versus 2023.
Difference in conventional brownfield investment 2022 versus 2023. (Source: Rystad Energy Ecube)

As fields continue to mature globally, more and more projects will be exposed to brownfield activity to sustain and prolong production. This will not only elevate overall productivity and resource potential, but will also open a plethora of contract opportunities for the service industry in sectors such as maintenance and operations, as well as well services and commodities.