罗伯特戈登大学 (RGU) 的一份新报告显示，除非政治领域紧急协调一致以维持英国海上能源行业就业、供应链投资和发展，否则英国将无法在 2030 年实现“公正公平”的转型。劳动力的经济贡献。

在“实现我们的能源未来”一文中，RGU 分析了从现在到 2030 年英国海上能源行业的 6,560 多种路径。该报告得出的结论是，英国和苏格兰的政治决策，而不是能源市场经济，将决定劳动力的规模和供应链。

在分析的数千条路径中，只有不到 15 条（即 <0.3%）符合“公正”的过渡原则。即使是这些有限的情景，也需要可再生能源行业在未来六年内通过数十亿英镑的额外投资来成功实现更高水平的雄心。

“英国仍然拥有创造新能源未来的独特机会。罗伯特戈登大学能源转型研究所所长 Paul de Leeuw 教授表示，加快将北海重新定位为世界级的多能源盆地将确保该行业能够在未来几十年为该国提供电力。 。 “英国若能做到这一点，将获得巨大的回报。但要实现这一目标需要采取行动和紧迫感，这意味着更快的规划、同意和接入电网。我们还需要更灵活的电价机制，以避免项目延误或取消，并积极关注建设英国内容，以便我们能够设计、制造、安装、调试和运营一些所需的关键新基础设施。这一点，以及建立和维持过去几十年发展的世界一流技能和能力，都至关重要。

“尽管包括政府、政治家、行业组织和经济发展机构在内的所有利益相关者都一致认为，我们需要实现“公正和公平”的过渡，但仍需要采取更加灵活和联合的方法来解决国家如何能够最好地实现其能源雄心，同时解决生活成本危机、管理能源安全和实现净零议程。

“最新的研究强调了跨政治派别紧急协调的必要性，以就短期行动达成一致，从而实现公正和公平的过渡，维持劳动力到 2030 年，以实现长期的净零未来和相关的经济效益为了国家。如果英国无法在 2030 年之前交付近 40GW（2023 年底为 15GW）的海上风电装机容量和英国新活动的内容雄心，那么在不进行额外活动的情况下，不太可能保留海上能源劳动力。 �

如果要保持“公正公平”转型的任何途径，石油和天然气行业的持续衰退需要通过明显更高水平的活动和更高的英国可再生能源含量来更快地抵消。否则，需要采取临时措施来解决包括石油和天然气产量在内的活动下降问题，目前预计到 2030 年石油和天然气产量将下降 40% 以上。

为了分析的目的，RGU 使用了联合国对“公正和公平”转型的定义，这意味着“确保在向低碳和环境可持续的经济和社会转型的过程中没有人被抛在后面。” RGU 进一步定义了这一点，将其与维持英国 154,000 个直接和间接离岸能源行业就业机会联系起来，并在本十年末将供应链和离岸劳动力经济贡献维持在 2023 年的水平或更好。

该报告的其他主要发现包括：

• 为了将英国海上能源供应链活动和产能维持在 2023 年的平均水平，英国必须到 2030 年支出约 100 亿英镑。
• 如果英国未能在 2030 年之前实现海上风电雄心和英国内容目标，那么在这十年的剩余时间内，如果不开展包括石油和天然气在内的其他活动，它就不太可能保留海上能源劳动力。
• 要实现到 2030 年英国新海上风电项目资本支出高达 40%，石油和天然气退役活动资本支出高达 50% 的雄心，需要大量的新运营能力和能力。
• 到 2030 年，英国海上风电行业资本支出每增加 10%，预计将创造 3,000 至 12,500 个就业岗位。
• 未来十年，可再生能源支出的 50% 至 85% 可能与资本支出相关，因此需要转向更加注重资本支出的劳动力。
• RGU 分析强调，石油和可再生能源之间每 10% 的工资差异可能需要增加多达 7% 的人员来维持经济贡献。
• 目前，苏格兰约有三分之一的工作人口从事或支持海上能源行业，而英国的这一比例为每 220 人中的 1 人。
• 如果苏格兰未能在未来的可再生能源活动中占据很大份额，选择性石油和天然气活动可能需要持续到 2030 年，以保留苏格兰的海上能源劳动力、技能、供应链和经济贡献。

A new report by Robert Gordon University (RGU) shows that the UK will fail to achieve a “just and fair” transition by 2030 unless there is urgent alignment across the political spectrum to sustain UK offshore energy industry jobs, supply chain investments and the economic contribution of the workforce.

In “Delivering our energy future,” RGU analyzed over 6,560 pathways for the UK offshore energy industry between now and 2030. The report concludes that UK and Scottish political decisions, rather than energy market economics, will determine the size of the workforce and supply chain.

Of the thousands of pathways analyzed, fewer than 15, or <0.3%, meet the “just and fair” transition principles. Even these limited scenarios require success by the renewables sector in achieving higher levels of ambition through billions of pounds of additional investment in the next six years.

“The UK still has a unique opportunity to create a new energy future. Accelerating the re-purposing of the North Sea as a world-class, multi-energy basin will ensure the sector can power the country for decades to come,” Professor Paul de Leeuw, Director of the Robert Gordon University Energy Transition Institute, said. “The prize for the UK to get this right is enormous. But to deliver this requires action and urgency, which means faster planning and consenting and access to the grid. We also need more flexible electricity pricing mechanisms to avoid project delays or cancellation and a proactive focus on building UK content so we can design, manufacture, install, commission and operate some of the critical new infrastructure required. This, as well as building and maintaining the world-class skills and capabilities developed over the last few decades, will be crucial.

“While there is consensus across all stakeholders including governments, politicians, industry organizations and economic development bodies that we need to realize a ‘just and fair’ transition, a far more agile and joined up approach is required to address how the country can best secure its energy ambitions, while addressing the cost-of-living crisis, managing energy security and delivering on the net zero agenda.

“The latest research reinforces the need for urgent alignment across the political spectrum to agree the short-term actions that will deliver a just and fair transition, maintaining the workforce to 2030 to deliver a long-term net zero future and the associated economic benefits for the country. If the UK is unable to deliver close to 40GW (from 15 GW at the end of 2023) of installed offshore wind capacity and UK content ambitions for the new activities by 2030, it is unlikely to retain the offshore energy workforce without additional activities.”

The ongoing decline in the oil and gas industry needs to be offset much more rapidly by identifiably greater levels of activity and higher UK content in renewables if any of the pathways to a ‘just and fair’ transition are to remain open. Otherwise, interim steps will need to be taken to address the decline in activities, including oil and gas production, which is currently expected to fall by more than 40% by 2030.

For the purpose of its analysis, RGU used the United Nations definition of a “just and fair” transition, which means “ensuring that no one is left behind in the transition to low carbon and environmentally sustainable economies and societies.” RGU defined this further by linking it to sustaining the UK’s 154,000 direct and indirect offshore energy industry jobs and by maintaining the supply chain and offshore workforce economic contribution at 2023 levels or better by the end of the decade.

Other key findings from the report include:

• To sustain the UK offshore energy supply chain activities and capacity at an average of 2023 level, the UK must deliver around £10 billion spend by 2030.
• If the UK is unsuccessful in delivering the offshore wind ambition and UK content targets by 2030, it is unlikely to be able to retain the offshore energy workforce without progressing additional activities, including oil and gas, over the remainder of this decade.
• Significant levels of new operational capacity and capability will be required to deliver on the ambition of up to 40% UK CAPEX content for new offshore wind projects and up to 50% for oil and gas decommissioning activities by 2030.
• Each additional 10% of UK CAPEX content for the offshore wind sector is estimated to yield between 3,000 and 12,500 jobs by 2030.
• Between 50% and 85% of spend in renewables over the coming decade is likely to be capital expenditure related, requiring a shift toward a more CAPEX-focused workforce.
• RGU analysis highlights that every 10% salary differential between oil and renewables may require up to 7% more people to maintain economic contribution.
• Approximately 1 in 30 of the working population in Scotland are currently employed in or support the offshore energy industry, versus 1 in 220 across the UK.
• If Scotland fails to capture a significant share of future renewables activities, selective oil and gas activities may need to be sustained until 2030 to retain the Scotland-based offshore energy workforce, skills, supply chain and economic contribution.