投资

伦敦——由于以色列和巴勒斯坦伊斯兰组织哈马斯之间的军事冲突引发了人们的担忧，人们担心更广泛的冲突可能会影响中东的石油供应，周一油价飙升逾 3%。

资料来源：路透社

截至 GMT 1341，布伦特原油 上涨 3.07 美元，至每桶 87.65 美元，涨幅为 3.6%，而美国西德克萨斯中质原油价格为每桶 86.15 美元，上涨 3.36 美元，涨幅约为 4.1%。

盘中早些时候，这两个基准价格均上涨超过每桶 4 美元。

油价飙升扭转了上周的下跌趋势，这是自 3 月份以来最大的单周跌幅，其中布伦特原油下跌约 11%，WTI 下跌超过 8%，原因是宏观经济前景黯淡加剧了对全球需求的担忧。

OANDA Craig Erlam 表示：“由于 OPEC+ 的产量限制，市场已经极度紧张，因此对以色列的袭击增加了油价的额外风险溢价，理论上这可能会进一步挤压供应。”

哈马斯周六对以色列发动了数十年来最大规模的军事袭击，引发了以色列对加沙的报复性空袭浪潮。

暴力事件的爆发可能会破坏美国斡旋沙特阿拉伯和以色列之间和解的努力，沙特将与以色列实现关系正常化，以换取华盛顿和利雅得之间的防务协议。

据报道，沙特官员周五告诉白宫，作为拟议的以色列协议的一部分，他们愿意明年提高产量。

利雅得和莫斯科已同意在 2023 年底前自愿减产 130 万桶/日。

分析师表示，冲突的影响可能包括伊朗出口可能放缓，尽管美国实施了制裁，但伊朗出口今年仍大幅增长。

盛宝银行的 Ole Hansen 表示，过去一年伊朗产量每天增加近 60 万桶，而储存在境内和海上的原油已销往市场，缓解了沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯精心策划的部分紧张局势。

他表示：“如果焦点转向伊朗，就有可能实施更严格的制裁，从而可能导致供应限制和市场条件收紧。”

Investing

LONDON – Oil prices surged more than 3% on Monday as military clashes between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas ignited fears that a wider conflict could impact oil supply from the Middle East.

Source: Reuters

Brent crude was up $3.07, or 3.6%, to $87.65 a barrel by 1341 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $86.15 a barrel, up $3.36 or about 4.1%.

Both benchmarks spiked by more than $4 a barrel earlier in the session.

The surge reversed last week’s downtrend – the largest weekly decline since March – in which Brent fell about 11% and WTI retreated more than 8% as a darkening macroeconomic outlook intensified concerns about global demand.

“The attack on Israel has added some additional risk premium to oil prices as the market is already extremely tight as a result of the OPEC+ output restrictions and this could in theory squeeze supply further,” said OANDA Craig Erlam.

Hamas on Saturday launched the largest military assault on Israel in decades, triggering a wave of retaliatory Israeli air strikes on Gaza.

The eruption of violence threatens to derail U.S. efforts to broker a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, in which the kingdom would normalise ties with Israel in return for a defence deal between Washington and Riyadh.

Saudi officials reportedly on Friday told the White House that they were willing to raise output next year as part of the proposed Israel deal.

Riyadh and Moscow have agreed to a combined 1.3 million barrel per day (bpd) voluntary cut until the end of 2023.

Analysts suggested the implications of the conflict could include a potential slowdown in Iranian exports, which have grown significantly this year, despite U.S. sanctions.

Iran’s production has risen by close to 600,000 barrels per day during the past year while crude stored on- and offshore has been sold into market, mitigating some of the tightness being orchestrated by Saudi Arabia and Russia, said Saxobank’s Ole Hansen.

“Should the spotlight turn towards Iran, there’s a possibility of stricter sanctions being imposed, potentially leading to supply constraints and tightening conditions within the market,” he said.