殷拓第四季度盈利上升，但天然气价格波动令预测蒙上阴影

天然气生产商殷拓集团 (EQT Corp.) 2022 年第四季度每股收益升至 42 美分。

约瑟夫
马克曼
哈特能源

不稳定的天然气市场对 EQT 公司的资产负债表造成了影响，但这家阿巴拉契亚生产商在 2 月 16 日公布的季度收益仍较去年同期有所增长。

该公司还表示，9 月份宣布的以 52 亿美元收购 Tug Hill 上游资产和 XcL Midstream 收集和加工资产的交易正在等待监管部门批准。该交易预计将在第四季度完成。

EQT 季度每股收益为 42 美分，高于去年同期的 37 美分。该季度调整后 EBITDA 为 6.787 亿美元，同比下降 11.4%。2022 年全年 EBITDA 增长 51%，达到 35.2 亿美元。

财务业绩远低于分析师一致预期的每股 54 美分和 EBITDA 7.68 亿美元。该季度自由现金流为 2.255 亿美元，同比下降 46.6%，低于市场普遍预期的 2.97 亿美元。2022 年全年自由现金流总计 19.4 亿美元，是 2021 年全年的两倍多。

2023 年指导

首席执行官托比·赖斯 (Toby Rice) 和首席财务官大卫·卡尼 (David Khani) 告诉分析师，EQT 预计将在年中之前完成 Tug Hill 交易。此次交易将使公司的产量增加约 800 MMcfe/d。

“Tug Hill 的关键问题，以及这些资产盈亏平衡成本如此低的原因，实际上是因为他们拥有自己的中游，以及他们在那里运行的计划的流动性百分比， ”赖斯说。“这些都是相当高质量的资产，因此维持生产所需的活动水平将减轻一些服务成本通胀的影响。”

2022 年天然气总产量增长 4.4%，达到 1.94 Tcfe。EQT 对 2023 年产量的指导为 1.9 Tcfe 至 2 Tcfe，或者 Piper Sandler 指出的产量持平，资本支出增加 25% 至 17 亿美元至 19 亿美元。

该公司根据当年天然气平均价格提供了2023年的指导。为了达到 2022 年 EBITDA 的水平，阿巴拉契亚盆地的平均价格必须达到 3.50 美元/MMBtu 左右。2022 年全年水平为 3.17 美元/MMcfe。

殷拓集团 2023 年财务指引
EQT 的 2023 年财务指导基于每 MMcfe 的天然气价格。（来源： 
殷拓集团）

卡尼表示：“自 2021 年初以来，波动性已增加两倍，因此我们认为这种情况将持续下去。” “我们的对冲策略”“我们的对冲 2.0 策略”确实体现了这种波动性。波动性是双向的。这就是为什么我们在构建对冲策略时将风险调整后的优势放在首位。”

他表示，进入 2023 年，天然气市场将出现供应过剩，预计 2024 年将出现适度的供应过剩。自由港液化天然气工厂的关闭和温和的冬季共同抑制了价格，并导致供应过剩小幅增加。 

卡尼说：“这基本上是向生产商发出开始减产的信号，​​因为价格迫使你的活动下线。” “这”也会增加需求。因此，它将产生一种反应，试图达到平衡的市场，你将从供应减少或供应增长放缓的组合中看到这一点，这可能最终约为 1 Bcf/d的影响。”

原文链接/hartenergy

EQT’s Q4 Earnings Up, But Natural Gas Price Volatility Clouds Forecast

Earnings per share rose to 42 cents in the fourth quarter of 2022 for natural gas producer EQT Corp.

Joseph
Markman
Hart Energy

Volatile natural gas markets stung the balance sheet of EQT Corp., but the Appalachian producer still reported higher year-over-year quarterly earnings on Feb. 16.

The company also said its $5.2 billion acquisition of Tug Hill’s upstream assets and XcL Midstream’s gathering and processing assets, announced in September, was awaiting regulatory approval. The deal had been expected to close in the fourth quarter.

EQT recorded quarterly earnings per share of 42 cents, up from 37 cents/share year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $678.7 million, an 11.4% drop year-over-year. For full-year 2022, EBITDA rose 51% to $3.52 billion.

The financial results fell far short of analysts’ consensus estimate of 54 cents/share and EBITDA of $768 million. Free cash flow of $225.5 million in the quarter represented a 46.6% drop year-over-year, and missed the consensus estimate of $297 million. For full-year 2022, free cash flow totaled $1.94 billion, more than double that of full-year 2021.

Guidance for 2023

CEO Toby Rice and CFO David Khani told analysts EQT expects to close the Tug Hill deal by midyear. The transaction will add about 800 MMcfe/d to the company’s production.

“The key thing with Tug Hill, and the reason why those assets had such a low breakeven cost, was really due to the fact that they own their midstream, and also the liquids percentage of their program that they’re running there,” Rice said. “These are pretty high-quality assets, so the activity levels needed to maintain production will mitigate some of the service cost inflation effects.”

Total gas production rose 4.4% in 2022 to 1.94 Tcfe. EQT’s guidance for 2023 production is 1.9 Tcfe to 2 Tcfe, or what Piper Sandler noted was flat production with a 25% increase of capex to $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion.

The company provided guidance for 2023 based on average price of natural gas for the year. To achieve the 2022 level of EBITDA, prices in the Appalachian Basin would have to average about $3.50/MMBtu. The full-year level in 2022 was $3.17/MMcfe.

EQT’s 2023 financial guidance
EQT’s 2023 financial guidance based on the price of natural gas per MMcfe. (Source: 
EQT Corp.)

“Gas volatility has tripled since early 2021 and so we think that’s going to continue,” Khani said. “Our hedging strategy—our Hedge 2.0 strategy, really—encapsulates that volatility. Volatility moves in both directions. That’s why we put our risk-adjusted upside in the way we structure our hedges.”

The natural gas market is oversupplied heading into 2023, with an expectation of a modest oversupply in 2024, he said. The combination of the shutdown of Freeport LNG and a mild winter dampened prices and caused a small increase in oversupply. 

“It’s basically sending a signal to the producers to start to cut production because pricing is forcing your activity offline,” Khani said. “It’s also going to send demand up. And so, it’s going to create a reaction to try to get to that balanced market, which you're going to see from a combination of supply coming off or supply growth slowing, which will probably end up being about 1 Bcf/d of impact.”