伍德麦肯兹：英国新政府的修正案可能导致未来五年投资陷入瘫痪

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 ， 《油田技术》副主编，

英国政府宣布对能源利润税（EPL）进行进一步修改，这是一项针对在北海运营的石油和天然气公司的暴利税，根据伍德麦肯兹的最新研究，如果该修改在十月预算中实施，可能会导致本届议会期间上游投资陷入瘫痪。

研究表明，政府认为英超联赛的改革可以带来每年平均 12 亿英镑的收入，下届议会期间则可带来 60 亿英镑的收入。

实现这一目标的方法是将 EPL 从 35% 提高到 38%，将日落条款（取消征税的时间）延长 12 个月至 2030 年 3 月 31 日，取消 29% 的投资津贴并减少资本津贴。但这些关键津贴将如何改变仍悬而未决。

伍德麦肯兹全球财政研究高级副总裁 Graham Kellas 表示：“执政不到一个月，工党政府就延续了上一届保守党政府的做法，对上游税收制度进行了进一步的临时修改，而没有解决关键资本津贴的不确定性。”“调整 EPL 的短期收益可能会导致上游行业投资过早放缓，从而导致生产加速停止。”

政府和公司现金流（2025 年 - 2029 年）

研究还补充道，将日落条款延长至 2030 年令人惊讶，因为工党此前曾表示，将在 2029 年结束的议会任期内保留其版本的英格兰和威尔士税法。因此，将日落条款延长至 2030 年毫无意义，而且保留了英格兰和威尔士税法的一个关键缺陷：投资阶段和生产阶段之间的财政条款不一致。

伍德麦肯兹高级研究分析师詹姆斯·里德表示，“日落日期一再延长，投资者现在会务实地认为英超联赛是该系统的永久特征，而不是假设未来条款会变得更加有利。”

在线阅读文章：https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/drilling-and-production/31072024/wood-mackenzie-amendments-by-uks-new-government-could-paralyse-investment-for-next-five-years/

 

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Wood Mackenzie: Amendments by UK’s new government could paralyse investment for next five years

Published by , Deputy Editor
Oilfield Technology,

The UK government’s announcement of further changes to the Energy Profits Levy (EPL), a windfall tax aimed at oil and gas companies operating in the North Sea, could paralyse upstream investment for the duration of this parliament if implemented in the October budget according to new research by Wood Mackenzie.

The research states that the government suggests the changes to the EPL could bring in annual average revenue of £1.2 billion, or £6 billion over the next parliament.

This would be achieved by increasing the EPL from 35% to 38%, extending the sunset clause (the time when the levy will be abolished) by 12 months to 31 March 2030, abolishing the 29% investment allowance and reducing the capital allowances. Just how these critical allowances would be changed was left hanging.

“After less than a month in power, the Labour government has continued in the same vein as the previous Tory government by making further temporary changes to the upstream tax system without addressing the uncertainty over the critical capital allowances,” says Graham Kellas Senior Vice President of Global Fiscal Research at Wood Mackenzie. “The short-term gains of tweaking the EPL could result in the premature slowdown of investment across the upstream sector which could lead to accelerated cessation of production.”

Government and company cash flows (2025 – 2029)

The research adds that the extension of the sunset clause to 2030 was surprising because Labour had previously stated it would keep its version of the EPL for the duration of the parliament which will end in 2029. To therefore extend the sunset clause to 2030 makes little sense and retains one of the EPL’s critical flaws: the misalignment of fiscal terms between the investment phase and the producing phase.

“The sunset date has extended so often investors will now pragmatically assume that the EPL is a permanent feature of the system, rather than assuming terms become more favourable in the future” says James Reid, Senior Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.

Read the article online at: https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/drilling-and-production/31072024/wood-mackenzie-amendments-by-uks-new-government-could-paralyse-investment-for-next-five-years/

 

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