OTC:井遗弃:拖延案例研究

到 2030 年,退役活动预计将达到近 1000 亿美元,但尽早规划可以最大限度地减少支出。

OTC Steve Louis Promethean:普罗米休斯退役公司首席执行官 Steve Louis (来源:Jennifer Pallanich/Hart Energy)

从本质上讲,退役是一个拖延问题。

许多因素导致海上工业退役活动优先顺序的延迟,但在后期规划方面取得先机可以最大限度地减少风险和支出。

赌注——即成本——从未如此之高。5 月 1 日举行的离岸技术会议的离岸退役商业替代方案主题演讲中,发言人表示,2021 年至 2030 年间,全球退役支出预计将达到近 1000 亿美元,越来越多的资产将重新回到以前的所有者手中。

普罗米休斯退役公司首席执行官史蒂夫路易斯表示,工程、HSE、文化和财务方面的考虑都会导致推迟退役活动。

他说,例如,在墨西哥湾(GoM),大约三分之一的平台已不再生产,因此维护支出可能是这些设施的最低限度。

路易斯曾经听一位专家说过,当行业中的一家公司发生事件时,该行业的所有公司都会发生这种情况。

“这意味着过去 10 年在墨西哥湾,我们所有人都发生了 6,000 多起事件。为什么?为什么?为什么会发生这种情况?是我们吗?是缺乏经验,还是我们的资产和环境不断恶化?”路易斯问道。

他补充说,行业文化可能是一个因素。

“直到最近,人们似乎还不愿意分享经验、寻求帮助、花钱、与监管机构交谈,甚至不愿意投资创新,”他说。

尽管所有这些因素都会导致延误,但路易斯指出,拖延是需要克服的更大问题。

他说,拖延症在商业中如此根深蒂固的原因之一是“高管们关注的不是下一个四分之一世纪,而是下一个季度”。

路易斯敦促经营者遵循《高效人士的七个习惯》作者史蒂文·科维的建议:以终为始。

“从制定计划开始,”他说。通过从一开始就优先考虑规划,就可以开发“非常灵活的方法来优先考虑活动的巨大风险,这使我们能够系统地确定退役的最佳顺序以及降低的成本和风险。”

赫斯公司 (Hess Corp.) 退役总监瑞安·拉莫特 (Ryan Lamothe) 表示,尽早制定退役计划可以产生很大的影响,但与合作伙伴合作也可以产生很大的影响。

“退役不一定是一个竞争环境,至少从运营商的角度来看不是这样,”拉莫特说。“这里没有我们应该防范的知识产权,对吧?这里没有储备金受到威胁。我认为,服务公司可能希望为自己保留一些技术,但运营商应该共同努力,找出我们如何放弃这些财产并尽可能有效地让其退役的行业。”

他说,运营商在退役时需要做出的重大决定之一是公司是否将在内部主导这一过程或使用代理人。他说,运营商应该考虑的事情包括内部是否具备工程专业知识。

政府放弃

例如,以深水为重点的赫斯不再拥有熟悉 GoM 陆架资产的工作人员,例如西三角洲 79 号区块,该区块在 Fieldwood Energy 于 2021 年宣布破产后又回到了赫斯。退役这些资产成为了首要任务,但没有他说,凭借内部架的专业知识,退役代理是一个合乎逻辑的选择。

“自 2004 年出售这些房产以来,已有 20 多年没有涉足这一领域了,”拉莫特说道。“正在进行的活动包括退役和废弃 115 口井、13 条管道和 7 个设施。自从不到 12 个月前收到这些财产以来,我们已经确保了所有七个设施的安全,考虑到它们所处的状况,这不是一件小事。”

Hess 已清除所有 13 条管道的所有 7 个设施中的碳氢化合物,并永久废弃了 25 口井。除了运行堵塞和废弃 (P&A) 作业外,液压修井装置还向 P&A 调动了几口“技术难度较大的油井”。他说,另外两个平台应该会在今年晚些时候准备好拆除和封堵。

他说,西三角洲 79 号街区令人惊讶的回旋镖问题的部分原因在于完全缺乏有关所有设施的信息。

“我们发现这些井和设施的状况比最初向我们描述的要糟糕得多,当我们真正进入井中的设施时,我们发现了无数的违规行为,”他说,并补充道油井和设施的这些问题并不是在短时间内出现的。

对于 Hess 正在交付的较新油井,运营商采用了以退役审查为特色的油井交付流程。

“当我们现在在墨西哥湾设计一口深水井时,它必须经过废弃审查,作为精心设计过程的一部分,”他说。

他说,赫斯发现放弃一些旧井可能“有点棘手”。“当我们考虑到在哪里更换包装机以及在哪里完成完工时,我们可能会为将来的废弃留下一条更容易、更便宜的道路。”

P&A 创新即将来临?

鉴于到 2030 年预计将有大量的 P&A 工作,Lamothe 预计退役相关技术将出现创新。他说,无人机和自动驾驶汽车可以直观地检查资产,而切割和插头技术的创新也已经成熟。

“公司看到了机遇,正在自行开发这些技术,然后寻找运营商来帮助在实际运营中试验这些技术,”他说。

路易斯说,随着资产老化,运营商必须考虑风险管理和风险转移。

“对于我们这些为人父母的人来说,你抱着你的孩子,但穿着完整的尿布,”他说。“在宝宝爆胎之前把尿布挂起来,这样可以降低风险。”

“把孩子交给你的配偶,这就是风险转移。”

尿布吹坏是一回事。路易斯说,在石油行业,“然而,我们在这里指的风险是关于安全的。” 运营支出和资本支出的成本不确定性,这是我们所有人都面临的声誉风险。这是多年前做出的撤资的未来承诺的风险。”

原文链接/hartenergy

OTC: Well Abandonment: A Procrastination Case Study

Decommissioning activities are expected to reach nearly $100 billion through 2030, but planning early can minimize the outlay.

OTC Steve Louis Promethean: Promethean Decommissioning Company CEO Steve Louis (Source: Jennifer Pallanich/Hart Energy)

At its heart, decommissioning is a procrastination problem.

Many factors lead to delays in prioritizing decommissioning activities in the offshore industry, but getting a head start on late-life planning minimizes risk and expenditure.

The stakes — meaning the cost — have never been higher. Global decommissioning spend is forecast to reach almost $100 billion between 2021 and 2030, and more and more assets are boomeranging back to previous owners, speakers said during the Commercial Alternatives for Offshore Decommissioning keynote session at the Offshore Technology Conference on May 1.

Promethean Decommissioning Company CEO Steve Louis said engineering, HSE, cultural and financial considerations all contribute to delaying decommissioning activities.

In the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), for example, about one-third of platforms are no longer in production, and so maintenance spend may be the bare minimum for those facilities, he said.

Louis once heard an expert say that when an incident happens to one company in the industry, it happens to all the companies in the industry.

“That means in the last 10 years in the Gulf of Mexico, there have been over 6,000 incidents that happened to all of us. Why? Why? Why is it happening? Is it us? Is the lack of experience or is it these deteriorating assets and the environment that we're putting our people in?” Louis asked.

The industry’s culture can be a factor, he added.

“There seems to be a reluctance up until recently to share experience, to ask for help, to spend money, to speak with regulators or even invest in innovation,” he said.

While all of those factors contribute to delays, Louis points at procrastination as the larger problem to overcome.

One of the reasons procrastination is so embedded in business is that “executives are focused not on the next quarter century, but the next quarter,” he said.

Louis urged operators to follow the advice of The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People author Steven Covey’s advice: begin with the end in mind.

“Start with building a plan,” he said. By prioritizing planning from the outset, it’s possible to develop “a very flexible approach to prioritize huge risk of activities, which enable us to systematically identify the optimal sequence for decommissioning and those reduced costs and reduced risk.”

Ryan Lamothe, director of decommissioning at Hess Corp., said working early on decommissioning plans can make a big difference, but so can working with partners.

“Decommissioning should not necessarily be a competitive environment, at least not from an operator's perspective,” Lamothe said. “There's no intellectual property here that we should be safeguarding against, right? There's no reserves at stake here. And I will argue that there are potentially some technologies that the service companies want to keep for themselves, but the operators ought to be working together to figure out how we can abandon these properties and decommission these as efficiently as possible as an industry.”

One of the big decisions operators need to make with decommissioning is whether the company will lead the process in-house or use an agent, he said. Things the operator should consider, he said, includes whether the engineering expertise is available in-house.

GoM abandonment

For instance, Hess, with its deepwater focus, no longer has staff familiar with GoM shelf assets, such as West Delta Block 79, which boomeranged back to Hess after Fieldwood Energy declared bankruptcy in 2021. Decommissioning the assets became a major priority, but without in-house shelf expertise, a decommissioning agent was a logical choice, he said.

“Hess has had no involvement with this field for over 20 years, having sold the properties in 2004,” Lamothe said. “Ongoing activities include decommissioning and abandonment of 115 wells, 13 pipelines, seven facilities. Since receiving these properties less than 12 months ago, we've made all seven facilities safe, which is no small undertaking given the condition that they were in.”

Hess has flushed hydrocarbons from all seven facilities in all 13 pipelines and has permanently abandoned 25 wells. In addition to running plug and abandonment (P&A) spreads, a hydraulic workover unit is mobilizing to P&A a couple of the “more technically challenging wells.” Two more platforms should be ready for removal and reefing later this year, he said.

Part of the problem with the surprise boomerang of West Delta Block 79, he said, is the complete lack of information about all the facilities.

“We discovered that the wells and facilities were in much worse shape than what was originally portrayed to us and that when we actually gained access to facilities in the wells, we found just innumerable numbers of non-compliance,” he said, adding that these issues with the wells and facilities had not developed in a short period of time.

For newer wells that Hess is delivering, the operator uses a well delivery process that features a decommissioning review.

“When we do a deepwater well designed now in the Gulf of Mexico, it has to go through an abandonment review as part of that well designed process,” he said.

Hess is finding that abandoning some of its older wells could “be a little bit tricky,” he said. “Had we thought about where we were replacing packers and where we were placing the completion, we at that point in time, we might have left ourselves a little bit easier… and cheaper path” for abandonment in the future.

P&A innovation on the way?

Given the huge amount of P&A work expected through 2030, Lamothe expects to see innovation in decommissioning-related technologies. Drones and autonomous vehicles can visually inspect assets, he said, while cutting and plug technologies are also ripe for innovation.

“Companies are seeing opportunities and are developing those technologies themselves and then looking for an operator that will help trial those in actual operations,” he said.

And as assets age, operators must think about risk management versus risk transfer, Louis said.

“For those of us who are parents, you're holding your baby, but with a full diaper,” he said. “Changing the baby's diaper before they have a blowout, that's risk reduction.

“Handing the baby to your spouse, that's risk transfer.”

A blown out diaper is one thing. In the oil industry, Louis said, “the risk we're referring to here, however, is about safety. Cost uncertainty in both opex and capex, the reputational risk we all face. It's the risk of future commitments for those divestments made years ago.”