在经历了低迷的 2023 年之后，今年被视为高影响力石油和天然气钻探的反弹期，其中非洲和拉丁美洲将引领这一趋势。Rystad Energy 的研究人员已确定 2024 年将钻探或开挖 36 个潜在的高影响力井，这是自 2015 年开始跟踪市场以来的最高年度总数。

今年的钻井计划将比 2023 年钻探的 27 口高影响井大幅增加。在 36 口潜在重要井中，13 口在非洲，10 口在拉丁美洲，几乎占全球总数的 64%。TotalEnergies 计划在巴布亚新几内亚进行勘探，勘探者将在亚洲钻探其中 6 个，中东、欧洲和北美各钻探 2 个，大洋洲钻探 1 个。

Rystad 发现，2023 年钻探的 27 口高影响井中，只有 8 口产生了商业可开采量，成功率不到 30%，远低于 42% 的年平均水平。这些井的发现量为10亿桶油当量，较2022年发现的35亿桶油当量大幅下降，占去年全球所有勘探活动发现的50亿桶油当量的20%。

此外，2023年是昂贵的一年，由于钻机市场比往年明显紧缩，钻井成本上升，加剧了低成功率的打击。

Rystad Energy 通过综合因素对高影响力井进行分类，这些因素包括勘探区的规模、它们是否会在前沿地区或新兴盆地释放新的碳氢化合物资源，以及它们对运营商战略的重要性。

今年计划的高影响井中，有 14 口将在前沿盆地和新兴盆地钻探，其中 3 口将完全开辟新区块。据该研究公司称，计划中的八口高影响井的目标海上预期资源量超过 4.3 亿桶油当量，陆上预期资源量超过 2.3 亿桶油当量。

其余 11 口井对其各自的运营商具有战略意义，这意味着勘探的成功将有助于他们在该地区获得吸引力或为未来的运营决策提供信息。

如果所有计划的油井按计划进行，到 2024 年，高影响力油井钻探数量将达到至少 10 年来的最高水平。

BP、雪佛龙、埃尼、埃克森美孚、壳牌和 TotalEnergies 等石油巨头将在高影响力钻井领域占据主导地位。

This year is being viewed as a bounce-back period for high-impact oil and gas drilling after a lackluster 2023, with Africa and Latin America pegged to lead the way. Researchers at Rystad Energy have identified 36 potential high-impact wells to be drilled or spud in 2024, the highest annual total since it started tracking the market in 2015.

This year’s slate would mark a sizable jump from the 27 high-impact wells drilled in 2023. Of the 36 potentially significant wells, 13 are in Africa and 10 in Latin America, accounting for almost 64% of the global total. Explorers will drill six of these in Asia, two each in the Middle East, Europe, and North America, and one in Oceania with TotalEnergies’ planned exploration in Papua New Guinea.

Rystad found only eight of the 27 high-impact wells drilled in 2023 resulted in commercially movable volumes, a success rate of less than 30%, well below the annual average of 42%. These wells discovered volumes of 1 billion BOE, a sharp decline from the 3.5 billion BOE found in 2022, and they accounted for 20% of the 5 billion BOE discovered by all exploration activities globally last year.

In addition, 2023 was an expensive year, with drilling costs rising due to a significantly tighter rig market than in prior years, worsening the blow of a low success rate.

Rystad Energy classifies high-impact wells through a combination of factors including the size of the prospect, whether they would unlock new hydrocarbon resources in frontier areas or emerging basins, and their significance to an operator’s strategy.

Of the high-impact wells planned this year, 14 will be drilled in frontier and emerging basins, with three opening new plays entirely. Eight planned high-impact wells target prospective offshore resources of more than 430 million BOE and considerable prospective onshore resources of more than 230 million BOE, according to the research firm.

The remaining 11 wells are strategically relevant for their respective operators, meaning exploration success would help them gain traction in the region or inform future operational decisions.

If all planned wells proceed as scheduled, 2024 would see the highest number of high-impact wells drilled in at least 10 years.

Oil majors like BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies will dominate high-impact well drilling.