美国能源信息署（EIA）发布的《2026年短期能源展望》预测，明年美国原油产量将保持在2025年创纪录的1360万桶/日附近，之后在2027年下降2%至1330万桶/日。预计美国年产量的下降将是自2021年以来的首次下降。

美国能源信息署（EIA）预测，未来两年墨西哥湾（EIA称之为“联邦美洲湾”）和阿拉斯加的石油产量小幅增长将被美国本土48州的产量下降所抵消，因为低油价会降低运营商的钻探积极性。EIA表示，预计钻探活动的放缓速度将超过近期钻井效率的增长，而正是这种增长提振了美国的石油产量。

美国2025年原油年产量创历史新高，主要得益于德克萨斯州西部和新墨西哥州东南部二叠纪盆地产量的增长，墨西哥湾近海产量增长的贡献相对较小。2025年，仅二叠纪盆地就占美国原油总产量的近一半。

资料来源：美国能源信息署，《短期能源展望》，2026年1月

美国能源信息署（EIA）表示，其原油价格预测很大程度上取决于国内油价，尤其是陆上油价。EIA预测，西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）价格将从2025年的平均价格每桶65美元跌至2026年的每桶52美元，并在2027年进一步跌至每桶50美元。这些价格低于近期的盈亏平衡生产价格。参与达拉斯联储能源调查的石油行业高管表示，二叠纪盆地最大的两个盆地——米德兰盆地和特拉华盆地——的盈亏平衡价格分别为每桶61美元和62美元。

美国能源信息署（EIA）表示，随着钻井活动减少和油价下跌，预计二叠纪盆地的石油产量不会有太大变化。EIA预测，2026年二叠纪盆地的石油产量将基本维持在2025年的平均水平，即660万桶/日，之后在2027年略微下降至650万桶/日。

美国能源信息署（EIA）预测，墨西哥湾石油产量将从2025年的190万桶/日增至2026年的200万桶/日，主要得益于新油田的开采抵消了现有油田产量的下降。这些产量将创下墨西哥湾石油产量的历史新高。EIA表示，由于油田自然减产，预计2027年墨西哥湾石油产量将略有下降。

美国能源信息署（EIA）表示，预计阿拉斯加的石油产量将在2027年之前持续增长，因为新的努纳（Nuna）和皮卡（Pikka）油田项目将促进整体增长。EIA预测，产量将从2025年的40万桶/日增至2027年的50万桶/日。这将是自​​2017年以来的首次年度产量增长，也是自2002年以来的最大增幅。

The 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that US crude oil production next year will remain near the record 13.6 million B/D produced in 2025 before decreasing 2% to 13.3 million B/D in 2027. The predicted drop in annual US production would mark the first drop since 2021.

The EIA forecasts that slight production growth from the Gulf of Mexico, which it calls the Federal Gulf of America, and Alaska will be offset by declines in the lower 48 states in the next 2 years as low oil prices reduce operators’ incentives to drill. The EIA said it expects the slowdown in drilling activity will outpace recent increases in drilling productivity that have bolstered US production.

The US set an annual production record in 2025, led by increases from the Permian region in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico and, to a lesser extent, offshore production increases in the Gulf of Mexico. In 2025, the Permian region alone accounted for almost half of total US crude oil production.

Source: US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2026

The EIA said that much of its crude forecast hinges on domestic oil prices, especially for onshore production. The EIA predicts that the price of West Texas Intermediate crude will fall from its 2025 average of $65/bbl to $52/bbl in 2026 and to $50/bbl in 2027. These prices are lower than recent breakeven production prices. Oil industry executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy survey said the two largest basins in the Permian, the Midland and Delaware basins, had breakeven prices of $61/bbl and $62/bbl, respectively.

The EIA said it expects little change in production from the Permian region as rig activity declines along with falling prices. It forecasts Permian production will remain essentially the same as its 2025 average of 6.6 million B/D in 2026 before falling slightly to 6.5 million B/D in 2027.

It forecasts that oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will rise from 1.9 million B/D in 2025 to 2.0 million B/D in 2026 as new fields offset declines from existing fields. Those levels would be records for gulf production. The EIA said it expects gulf production will decline slightly in 2027 because of natural field declines.

In Alaska, the EIA said it expects production to increase through 2027 as the new Nuna and Pikka projects contribute to overall growth. It forecasts production will rise from 0.4 million B/D in 2025 to 0.5 million B/D in 2027. That annual production increase would be the first since 2017 and the largest since 2002.