由于石油行业在过去十年中的低迷，从 2014 年到 2021 年，离岸投资大幅下降，在此期间下降了近 60%，至约 1,380 亿美元。去年我们观察到趋势发生变化，离岸投资较前一年增长近 20%。今年这种增长势头仍在延续，比去年额外增长了15%以上。这种每年约 2000 亿美元的活动水平预计将维持到 2026 年（图 1）。总体而言，海上石油和天然气投资占上游投资总额的30%至35%。

尽管从 2014 年到 2021 年呈下降趋势，但自 2016 年批准的项目资本支出低至 300 亿美元以来，离岸制裁活动有所增加。预计需要 1,080 亿美元资本支出的离岸石油和天然气项目将在今年受到批准。今年，超过了2019年的水平。Rystad 预计，到 2025 年，承诺资本支出将继续增加至 1,220 亿美元。值得注意的是，承诺的资本支出预计不会回到 2010 年代初的高位。 

这并不是制裁活动减少的结果，而是运营商采取的成本效率措施推动的。2014 年之后，受制裁的资源量增加了四倍多，从 6 Bboe 增加到 2021 年的 27 Bboe。然而，尽管受制裁的数量有所增加，但成本仍然很低，因为每桶开发成本从 2013 年每桶 18 美元的高点大幅下降至 2021 年的 18 美元/桶油当量。 2013 年至 2022 年间，平均每桶油当量为 8 美元（图 2）。

生产

离岸供应的增长是上游行业的另一个新兴趋势。评估非欧佩克液体供应的同比增长情况可以看出，页岩油历来都是主要的增长动力。然而，2020年后，海上深水尤其显示出成为关键增长领域的迹象。2023年，非欧佩克深水产量预计将比去年增长约50万桶/天，即7%。Rystad 预计，到 2026 年，页岩气将成为最大的增长领域，取而代之的是海上深水领域，并且至少在本世纪末仍然是主要的增长动力（图 3）。

表现

海上油田的表现一直超过陆上油田。平均而言，深水油井的估计最终采收率 (EUR) 为 15 MMboe，陆架井平均约为 5 MMboe，陆上油井则低于 1 MMboe。同样明显的是，近几年海上油井的表现一直在小幅增长，​​到 2022 年欧元将会上升（图 4）。 

下面的图 5 将海上与其他主要供应细分市场的各种指标进行了比较。

近海深水和陆架的未开发液体资源总量比任何其他部分都要大，约为 180 Bboe。离岸项目的盈亏平衡价格低至每桶 40 美元，是最具竞争力的价格之一，仅次于陆上石油输出国组织 (OPEC)。就投资回收期而言，致密油是唯一一个平均投资回收期低于深水 6 年和近海陆架 10 年的领域。近海深水内部收益率高达31%，仅次于致密油。就 CO _{2强度而言，海上作业是同类产品中最好的，每桶油当量的 CO 2}排放量为 10 至 12 千克，远低于大多数其他领域。

该行业在关键指标上的表现表明，离岸投资是最安全的投资领域之一，具有低盈亏平衡、高回报和相对低碳足迹。因此，近海仍然是上游景观中值得关注的关键部分。

About the author: Sonya Boodoo is vice president in the Upstream Research team at Rystad Energy, responsible for covering E&P activity on the UKCS and development of the UKCS Business Development Solution. Prior to joining the Rystad Energy, she worked as a geologist and economist for both E&P companies and consulting firms. She holds a BSc in petroleum geoscience from the University of the West Indies and an MSc in energy economics from the University of Dundee. 

Offshore investments declined significantly from 2014 until 2021 amid the oil industry downturn in the middle of the last decade, falling almost 60% over the period to about $138 billion. Last year we observed a change in trends, with offshore investments growing almost 20% from the previous year. This growth has continued this year, with an additional growth of more than 15% over last year. This level of activity, about $200 billion per annum, is expected to be maintained until 2026 (Figure 1). In total, offshore oil and gas investments make up between 30% and 35% of total upstream investments.

Despite the declining trend from 2014 to 2021, there has been an increase in offshore sanctioning activity since the low of $30 billion of project capital expenditure sanctioned in 2016. The expectation is that offshore oil and gas projects requiring $108 billion of capex will be sanctioned this year, surpassing 2019 levels. By 2025, Rystad expects committed capex to continue increasing to $122 billion. It is notable that committed capex is not expected to return to the highs seen in the early 2010s. 

This is not a result of reduced sanctioning activity but is driven by cost efficiency measures undertaken by operators.After 2014, the volume of sanctioned resources increased more than fourfold from 6 Bboe to 27 Bboe in 2021. Despite more volumes being sanctioned, however, costs remained depressed as the development cost per barrel dropped significantly from the 2013 high of $18 per boe to an average of $8 per boe between 2013 and 2022 (Figure 2).

Production

Growth in offshore supply is another emerging trend in the upstream sector. Assessing year-over-year growth in non-OPEC liquids supply, it is evident that shale has historically been the key growth driver. After 2020, however, offshore deepwater has in particular shown signs of becoming a key growth segment. In 2023, the growth rate for non-OPEC deepwater is expected to be about 500,000 bbl/d, or 7%, over last year. By 2026, Rystad sees a shift from shale being the biggest growth segment, with offshore deepwater taking its place and remaining the key growth driver at least toward the end of the decade (Figure 3).

Performance

The performance of offshore fields has consistently surpassed that of onshore. On average, deepwater oil wells have estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of 15 MMboe, shelf wells come in on average at about 5 MMboe and onshore wells at less than 1 MMboe. It is also evident that offshore well performance has been increasing slightly in recent years, with higher EURs toward 2022 (Figure 4). 

Figure 5 below compares offshore with other key supply segment groups on various metrics.

The combined undeveloped liquid resource for offshore deepwater and shelf is larger than for any other segment, at about 180 Bboe. The breakeven price for offshore projects in the low $40s per barrel is among the most competitive, outcompeted only by onshore OPEC. With regard to payback time, tight oil is the only segment that offers lower average payback time than the six years for deepwater and 10 years for offshore shelf. The internal rate of return for offshore deepwater at 31% is second only to tight oil. In terms of CO₂ intensity, offshore is best in class, coming in at 10 to 12 kg of CO₂ per boe, well below most other segments.

The sector’s performance on key metrics suggests that offshore is one of the safer segments in which to invest, providing low breakevens, high returns and a relatively low-carbon footprint. As such, offshore remains a key segment to watch in the upstream landscape.

About the author: Sonya Boodoo is vice president in the Upstream Research team at Rystad Energy, responsible for covering E&P activity on the UKCS and development of the UKCS Business Development Solution. Prior to joining the Rystad Energy, she worked as a geologist and economist for both E&P companies and consulting firms. She holds a BSc in petroleum geoscience from the University of the West Indies and an MSc in energy economics from the University of Dundee.