(彭博社)汇丰控股有限公司表示，美国页岩油生产商将继续在未来数年提高石油产量，直到 2028 年左右这一巨大增长势头放缓，从而粉碎 OPEC+ 对美国石油产量增长更快下降的希望。

这家总部位于伦敦的银行的分析师在一份题为“低估美国页岩气将导致严重后果”的报告中写道，在企业收购浪潮中，钻井和水力压裂技术的改进将推动页岩气扩张，并足以抵消近期钻井平台部署的减少。

以 Kim Fustier 为首的分析师写道：“一些人预计美国页岩油产量将很快达到峰值，OPEC+ 希望如此，因为这将使该组织最终能够取消减产。”但“未来 3-4 年，美国页岩油产量可能会增长。”

美国页岩油产量放缓的预期是欧佩克及其盟友最近决定通过将减产的石油重新投放市场来逐步增加供应量的原因之一。但汇丰银行写道，投资者应该警惕“大幅”的生产率增长，这可能会使美国经济增长超出目前的预期。

分析师表示，明年美国页岩油田产量将增加约 40 万桶/日，随后增幅将放缓。  

(Bloomberg) – U.S. shale drillers will continue to raise oil production for years before the juggernaut stalls around 2028, dashing OPEC+ hopes for a quicker fall-off in American output growth, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.

Improvements in drilling and fracking techniques amid a wave of corporate takeovers will drive the expansion and more than offset recent reductions in rig deployments, analysts at the the London-based bank wrote in a note titled ‘Underestimate U.S. shale at your peril.’

“Some expect U.S. shale to peak soon, and OPEC+ hopes this will be the case as it would allow the group to finally unwind its supply cuts,” analysts led by Kim Fustier wrote. But “US shale could grow for the next 3-4 years.”

Expectations for slower U.S. shale production was a factor in the recent decision by the OPEC and allies to gradually increase supplies by bringing curtailed barrels back to the market. But investors should be wary of “substantial” productivity gains that may extend US growth beyond current forecasts, HSBC wrote.

U.S. shale fields will up production by about 400,000 bpd in the next year, with slower growth thereafter, according to the analysts.