尼克·戴尔索 (Nick Dell'sso) 对此进行了细分：从明年开始，美国天然气的需求量将增加 10 Bcf/d。

切萨皮克能源公司总裁兼首席执行官告诉巴克莱首席执行官能源电力会议与会者，答案首先来自海恩斯维尔页岩，其次来自二叠纪盆地，然后是其他地方，但来自马塞勒斯页岩的答案并不多。. 6.

Marcellus 气田是世界上最大的气田之一，目前平均产量约为 35 Bcf/d，根据行业估计，产量可能超过 60 Bcf/d。

但戴尔索告诉巴克莱董事总经理兼勘探与生产分析师Betty Jiang，“马塞勒斯是一个受限制的盆地”。

与此同时，明年美国墨西哥湾沿岸的 Calcasieu Pass II 和 New Fortress 将会增加 5.5 Bcf/d 的液化天然气出口需求。2025 年，Golden Pass 和 Plaquemines 1 将开始额外停靠 8.5 Bcf/d。

美国天然气期货已经预计到更大的需求。在芝商所 (CME) 纽约商业交易所 (Nymex) 交付给亨利港 (Henry Hub) 的即月天然气合约价格为 2.59 美元/MMBtu。在期货溢价中，12 个月期合约的价格为 3.22 美元。

2025 年之后交割的合约交易价格接近 5 美元。

“远期曲线可以很好地反映市场如何看待供需，”戴尔索说。“但我们对这些基本面的关注比我们对远期曲线中的一些“神奇数字”的关注要密切得多。

“远期曲线”可以与那些基本面分开。”

根据美国能源情报署的数据，目前美国储气库供应过剩达500 Bcf，原因是Freeport LNG在停产期间八个月没有出口一半的天然气，直到2月份，供应过剩的情况正在收窄。

同比存储过剩的情况仍然存在，但夏季特别炎热，而生产商一直在抑制新的钻探活动，导致补充季节几乎趋于平淡。

戴尔索表示，未来两年仅增加 10 Bcf/d 的液化天然气出口能力，相当于美国目前约 100 Bcf/d 需求的 10%。

“当我们考虑到市场（通常）随着时间的推移变化得有多缓慢时，这种增长有点难以理解。需求的增长将显着改变我们行业的基本面。”

响应号召的将是“首先，在海恩斯维尔；其次，可能是来自二叠纪的伴生气；在那之后，在其他地方寻找天然气就会更加困难。”

至于马塞勒斯号，它需要管道。“我们确实没有管道项目能够直接从马塞勒斯输送大量增量以满足不断增长的需求，”他说。

Haynesville 已经在增加烟斗，包括 Williams Cos. 和 Momentum Midstream 的大烟斗。戴尔索指出，通往墨西哥湾沿岸的海恩斯维尔管道位于州内，这有助于加快新外卖管道的建设。

与此同时，至于还有多少天然气可以从二叠纪盆地排出，“只要去看看正在建设的管道就可以了，”戴尔索说。“这就是帽子。” 真的不能再有更多了。”

切萨皮克在海恩斯维尔和马塞勒斯都有业务。

目前美国天然气市场的问题实际上并不是运营商生产过多。“虽然市场供应过剩，但并没有大量供应过剩，”他说。

“当你想到美国的天然气市场为 100 Bcf/d 至 102 Bcf/d 时，我们可能会供应过剩约 1 至 1.5 Bcf/d。”

切萨皮克和其他天然气钻探公司已经放弃了钻机。海恩斯维尔的人数从一年前的 69 人减少到 44 人；根据贝克休斯的钻机数量，阿巴拉契亚地区的钻井数量从一年前的 47 座增加到 40 座。

Nick Dell’Osso broke it down: Beginning next year, there will be 10 Bcf/d of greater demand for U.S. natural gas.

The answer’s going to come first from the Haynesville Shale, secondly from the Permian Basin and then elsewhere — but not much from the Marcellus Shale, Chesapeake Energy Corp.’s president and CEO told Barclays CEO Energy-Power conference attendees on Sept. 6.

One of the world’s largest gas fields, the Marcellus is averaging some 35 Bcf/d currently and could produce more than 60 Bcf/d, according to industry estimates.

But “the Marcellus is a constrained basin,” Dell’Osso told Barclays managing director and E&P analyst Betty Jiang.

Meanwhile, 5.5 Bcf/d of additional LNG-export demand will come online on the U.S. Gulf Coast next year: Calcasieu Pass II and New Fortress. In 2025, an additional 8.5 Bcf/d call will begin at Golden Pass and Plaquemines 1.

U.S. gas futures are already anticipating the greater demand. The prompt-month contract for gas delivered to Henry Hub was $2.59/MMBtu on CME Group’s Nymex. In contango, the 12-month strip was $3.22.

Contracts for delivery after 2025 were trading at nearly $5.

“The forward curve is a good proxy for how the market is perceiving supply and demand,” Dell’Osso said. “But we watch those fundamentals a lot more closely than we do some ‘magic number’ in the forward curve.

“The forward curve—it can get separated from those underlying fundamentals.”

According to Energy Information Administration data, current U.S. gas storage oversupply of 500 Bcf—resulting from a half-Tcf of gas that Freeport LNG didn’t export while offline for eight months until February—is narrowing.

The overage in year-over-year storage remains, but an especially hot summer—while producers have been choking back on new drilling—has nearly flattened the refill season.

Bringing just 10 Bcf/d of additional LNG-export capacity online in the coming two years is an additional 10% call on current U.S. demand of some 100 Bcf/d, Dell’Osso said.

“That kind of growth is something that is a little bit hard to fathom when we think about how slowly the market [typically] moves over time. That growth in demand will change the underlying fundamentals of our industry pretty significantly.”

Answering the call will come “first, by the Haynesville; second, probably by the associated gas coming out of the Permian; and then after that, it’s going to pull harder to find gas in other places.”

As for the Marcellus, it needs the pipelines. “We don’t really have pipeline projects that are going to deliver large amounts of incremental volumes out of the Marcellus directly to feed that increased demand,” he said.

The Haynesville is adding pipe already, including big pipe by Williams Cos. And Momentum Midstream. Haynesville pipe to the Gulf Coast is intrastate, which is helpful in expediting new takeaway construction, Dell’Osso noted.

Meanwhile, as for how much more gas can exit the Permian, “just go look and see the pipes that are under construction,” Dell’Osso said. “That’s the cap. There can really not be any more than that.”

Chesapeake operates in both the Haynesville and Marcellus.

The problem with the U.S. gas market currently isn’t really that operators are producing too much. “While the market is oversupplied, it’s not oversupplied by a massive amount,” he said.

“When you think about us being a 100 Bcf/d to 102 Bcf/d market for natural gas in the U.S., we are probably around 1 to 1.5 Bcf/d oversupplied.”

Chesapeake and other gas drillers have been dropping rigs. The Haynesville count decreased to 44 in the Haynesville from 69 a year ago; and in Appalachia to 40 from 47 a year ago, according to the Baker Hughes rig count.