（彭博社）“少数人持股的运营商曾经是二叠纪页岩油因疫情而增长的引擎，但现在预计将导致美国石油钻探公司明年的支出收缩。

根据巴克莱银行第 39 次年度全球支出调查，私营石油和天然气运营商预计到 2024 年将预算削减 4%，平均达到 344 亿美元。此次收缩是北美公司中最大的预测，此前私人钻探公司今年将支出增加了 15%。

在 2023 年产量好于预期之后，由于顶级钻探地点的库存不断减少，美国页岩油产量目前正处于放缓之中。包括 J. David Anderson 在内的巴克莱分析师周二在给投资者的一份报告中写道，由于今年预算扩张超过预期，北美生产商总支出预计明年将下降 1%。

巴克莱银行本月早些时候进行的 Evercore ISI 支出调查预测，明年美国石油生产商的预算将增加 2%，因为 2024 年原油产量可能仅增加 15 万桶/日，而这只是今年 1 百万桶/日增长的一小部分。

今年美国石油产量的惊人增长部分归因于私营生产商的扩张，巴克莱表示，私营生产商约占美国钻井平台的一半，占美国陆上产量的 40%。

(Bloomberg) – Closely held operators, once the engine to the Permian’s shale growth coming out of the pandemic, are now expected to lead U.S. oil drillers into spending contraction next year.

Private oil and natural gas operators are projected to cut their budgets by 4% to an average of $34.4 billion in 2024, according to the 39th annual global spending survey from Barclays PLC. The contraction, the biggest forecast among North American companies, comes after the private drillers increased expenditures by 15% this year.

After better-than-expected output in 2023, the U.S. shale patch is now in the midst of slowing down amid dwindling inventory for top-tier drilling locations. Total North American producer spending is forecast to drop 1% next year, after budgets expanded more than expected this year, Barclays analysts including J. David Anderson wrote Tuesday in a note to investors.

The Barclays estimate follows an Evercore ISI spending survey earlier this month that forecast a 2% budget bump from U.S. oil producers next year as crude production likely increases by just 150,000 bpd in 2024, a fraction of this year’s 1 MMbpd growth.

This year’s surprising jump in U.S. oil production is partly attributable to expansion among private producers, who Barclays says account for roughly half of the U.S. drilling rigs and as much as 40% of the country’s onshore production.