时间就是金钱:壳牌通过棕地战略优先考虑速度

壳牌的复制战略以生产装置的定制化为代价,以加快墨西哥湾深水区 Whale、Sparta 开发项目的周期时间。

壳牌在墨西哥湾 (GoM) 寻求快速开发周期,因此将棕地思维应用于绿地开发。

壳牌专家在 5 月 8 日于休斯敦举行的 2024 年海上技术会议 (OTC) 期间举行的 Whale 项目小组讨论会上表示,这种方法并不容易,因为开发活动一开始就面临着不同的问题。

在深水墨西哥湾,壳牌在很大程度上复制了其运营的 Vito 生产半潜式钻井平台,用于 Whale 和 Sparta 开发,以节省时间和金钱。壳牌在 2018 年对该项目达成最终投资决定 (FID) 后,于 2023 年将其 Vito生产半潜式钻井平台投入超过 4,000 英尺的水深。Equinor是壳牌的 Vito 合作伙伴。壳牌于 2021 年 7 月批准了其在近 9,000 英尺水深运营的 Whale 项目,今年将首次生产;并于 2023 年 12 月批准其在 7,000 英尺水深运营的 Sparta 项目,预计 2028 年从20,000 psi 开发项目中获得第一批石油Equinor 是壳牌在 Sparta 项目上的合作伙伴。

复制的决定需要一些权衡。

作为工程师,我们热爱优化。我们喜欢拥有尺寸合适的容器来分离这些液体。尺寸恰好适合执行此操作的压缩机。那么,这确实是一种权衡,或者什么才足够好?什么可以完成这项工作?”壳牌 Whale 的主机经理杰森·盖奇 (Jason Gage) 说道。 

他说,结果是有时有些东西设计得有点过度,但为了加快交付时间而不是重新设计,接受这一点可能会带来更多好处。

“我几乎将一个项目视为真正的棕地项目。如果你真的必须改变它,你会改变什么?”他说。

有了棕地,“你就有了你所拥有的,对吗?” “在棕色地带,你必须非常谨慎地改变什么,”他说,并指出改变方法并不容易。 

壳牌 Whale 项目经理奥罗·阿瓦里特夫 (Oro Awaritefe) 表示,一种思考方式就像是海底回接,为现有资产带来新石油。

“解决这个问题,”他说。 “一旦你做出了我们正在复制的决定,顺便说一句,做出这个决定并不那么容易,但一旦你做出了决定,现在一切都是关于“它如何适合主机?” �这是一种完全不同的心态。这是一种束缚心态,这是一种棕地心态。”

Awaritefe 表示,在整个开发过程中,盖奇作为主机经理对于允许哪些类型的更改制定了三项主要规则。

“他说,“除非你发现不安全的东西,除非有监管要求,除非有机会问题,否则要改变。”如果这些都没有发挥作用,那么他不想听到改变,” �阿瓦里特夫说道。 

盖奇承认,棕地思维比绿地开发思维受到更多限制。

“每个人都喜欢绿地,因为它是一张白纸,但如果它是用数字绘制的,那么你所涉及的创造力就会少一些,”盖奇说。

另一方面,壳牌勘探公司的商业机会经理乔纳森·约翰逊指出,复制并不缺乏创新。

“我认为复制可以让你将创新集中在你可以创新以创造额外价值的领域,”他说。

鲸鱼计划

Whale 位于墨西哥湾阿拉米诺斯峡谷地区的超深水区,于 2018 年被发现,当时石油价格约为 50 美元/桶,该行业正处于“长期繁荣”阶段,并于 2019 年进行了评估。雪佛龙壳牌在 Whale 项目中的合作伙伴。

由于距离 Perdido 主机较近 10 英里,壳牌曾短暂考虑过采用海底回接方案进行开发,但最终确定回接方案对于已发现储量而言并不是最佳解决方案。约翰逊说,壳牌还在开发阶段的早期评估了一些生产解决方案,发现其中许多解决方案不足以满足公司对速度和简单性的渴望,而其他解决方案则不适合其他方面,例如气象海洋条件。 

复制Vito半潜式生产平台“迅速出现”,成为以较低成本快速开发Whale的首选。

可能的主要原因之一是维托和鲸鱼的水库相似。

“岩石帮了我们很多忙,”盖奇说。

Whale 第一阶段将钻 15 口井。 

半成品产能为 100,000 桶/天、200 MMcf/天,设计寿命为 30 年。石油通过管道出口到德克萨斯州,天然气通过与佩迪多共享的天然气出口线路出口。

海底设备的额定压力为 10,000 psi,Awaritefe 表示,海底设备是与 Vito 不同的方面之一。

“我们的海底与维托海底非常不同,因此你无法提升和移动并进行设计,但有些元素是可以复制的,”他说。 “越是推动标准化和复制,我认为我们的执行就越完美。”

他说,例子是在所有项目中对海底树或脐带缆使用相同的标准化设计。

另一方面,上部结构与 Vito 主机相比有一些变化。

“通常说,上部结构是 80% 的复制品,船体是 99% 的复制品,”Awaritefe 说。

上部结构变化较大的原因之一是技术的变化,例如过时。

“我们试图做的是,“如果它没有坏,就不要修复它”,这样我们就能从中获得最大收益,但如果它变得过时了,那么我们就需要改变它,我们改变它,”他说。 

然而,他说,船体“主要是哑钢”,因此改动较少。

对于 Whale 来说,设备包大约 95% 是 Vito 设备的副本,上部部分大约 80%,船体大约 99%。壳牌为 Whale 和 Vito 采用了相同的系泊和安装概念,但水深不同,并且使用了不同的供应商。干运使用同一供应商但不同的船只。 

但由于鲸鱼距离直升机场较远,因此需要另一种直升机停机坪。 

Vito 的经验允许对上部结构进行一些优化,从而在以后的使用中提供更高的有效载荷和灵活性。 

奥罗·阿瓦里特夫 OTC
Oro Awaritefe,壳牌鲸鱼项目经理。(来源:OTC)

“现在我们更好地理解了我们在重建时所做的设计,我们看到我们实际上可以容纳、提供未来的扩展或未来的设备,以及我们最初无法在 Vito 上提供的未来的东西,”阿瓦里特夫说。

典型的海上生产装置设计始于具有较大利润的重量预算。

“自从我们进行复制以来,维托拥有不同设备等的竣工重量,因此我们可以在重量和控制方面保持非常严格的裕度进行设计,”盖奇说。

这还允许对风荷载和其他变量进行微调。 

“在项目结束时你总是想要但后来在棕地中很难添加的两件事是什么?有效载荷和空间,”他说。

他说,该设计以最低的成本获得了机翼甲板的额外空间,并在平台上增加了 1,500 吨的有效载荷。

2023 年 10 月,Seatrium 交付了 Whale半成品。 Whale主机已安装完毕,正在进行调试。出口管线已安装,内场管线正在建设中。约翰逊表示,该团队正在“努力”履行最终投资决定今年交付第一批石油的承诺。

复制的好处

乔纳森·约翰逊 OTC
乔纳森·约翰逊 (Jonathan Johnson),壳牌勘探公司商业机会经理。(来源:OTC)

这一系列的复制项目对于壳牌来说并不是第一次。

约翰逊表示,20 世纪 90 年代末,壳牌与 Mars、Ram Powell 和 Brutus 张紧腿平台 (TLP) 深水生产装置“进行了一定程度的复制”。

曾在拉姆·鲍威尔油田担任运营经理,他了解相似设施的价值。

“能够登上拉姆·鲍威尔的甲板,必须以工程师的身份在火星的甲板上工作,并且在登陆设施的那一刻就知道一切都在哪里。因此,复制的价值确实引起了我的共鸣,”他说。 “从那时起我就全力以赴。”

他说,复制可以在资产的整个生命周期中实现标准化。 

“展望项目的运营阶段,能够从 Vito 抽调一名机械师、一名操作员或一名电工,然后将他们送到 Whale,这几乎就像即插即用一样。当我们的其他一些资产不是复制品时,做到这一点就非常非常困难,”约翰逊说。

维托从发现石油到首次发现石油的周期时间为 13 年;生产半成品需要 1300 万工时才能建造。 Whale的生产周期为7年,生产设施的建设需要1100万工时。

壳牌斯巴达
壳牌斯巴达开发项目效果图。壳牌运营的 Sparta 最初由 Cobalt Energy 于 2012 年发现,代表合作伙伴 Equinor 持有 49% 的权益,持有 51% 的权益。(来源:壳牌离岸公司)

Seatrium 执行副总裁兼石油和天然气国际业务主管 William Gu 表示,复制并不意味着设施是相同的。

他说,在不同的制造过程中可以找出性能可以改进的地方。 

通过复制,Whale 和 Sparta 实现了诸多好处,包括定义更明确的前端、执行合同的工作量更少、不确定性减少、基准测试基线、针对已知“热点”的集中风险管理、消除学习曲线以及使用机会改进的方法,Awaritefe 说。 Whale 的船体工程时间缩短了 15 个月,上部结构工程时间缩短了 20%。

他说,Whale 的制造工作减少了 200 万工时,这是“巨大的”,而且总体而言,焊接废品率有所下降。

Seatrium 正在制造和集成这三个主机设施,上个月与壳牌签署了一份谅解备忘录,重点是推动项目标准化和复制,并寻求推广设计和建造浮式生产系统的最佳实践。

阿瓦里特夫说,虽然复制有很多好处,但它也面临着挑战。他说,有时说起来容易做起来难。

例如,复制是一项需要学习的技能,需要抵制改变设计的冲动,他说。 

他说,其他潜在的陷阱包括可能采用先前设计中的错误、执行自满和员工停滞不前。

未来的复制潜力?

阿瓦里特夫表示,他预计壳牌将以棕地视角审视墨西哥湾的每一个绿地。然而,约翰逊指出,许多因素都会影响任何地点的特定生产设施的适用性,例如气象、天气条件和出口手段。

” 有时复制不起作用。所以你必须明白,如果你试图强行进入,一般来说不会有好结果,”盖奇说。

原文链接/HartEnergy

Time is Money: Shell Prioritizes Speed with Brownfield Strategy

Shell’s replicant strategy trades customization of the production unit for a sped-up cycle time for Whale, Sparta developments in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico.

Shell’s quest for speedy development cycles in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) has the supermajor applying brownfield thinking to greenfield developments.

The approach isn’t easy as the development activities at the outset start with different questions, Shell experts said during a May 8 panel on the Whale project during the 2024 Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston.

In the deepwater GoM, Shell is largely replicating its operated Vito production semisubmersible for the Whale and Sparta developments to save time and money. Shell brought its Vito production semisubmersible in more than 4,000 ft water depth online in 2023 after reaching final investment decision (FID) on the project in 2018. Equinor is Shell’s Vito partner. Shell sanctioned its operated Whale project in nearly 9,000-ft water depth in July 2021 with first production set for this year, and its operated Sparta project in 7,000-ft water depth in December 2023, with first oil from the 20,000 psi development expected in 2028. Equinor is Shell’s partner for the Sparta project.

The decision to replicate comes with some trade-offs.

“As engineers, we love to optimize. We love to have a vessel that's just the right size to separate these fluids. A compressor that's exactly the right size to do this. So [it’s] really the trade-offs, or what's good enough? What can do the job?” Jason Gage, Whale’s host manager for Shell, said. 

The result is that sometimes something is slightly overdesigned, but there can be more benefit in accepting that in order to speed delivery time rather than redesigning, he said.

“It's thinking about a project as really a brownfield project, almost. If you really had to change it, what would you change?” he said.

With a brownfield, “you have what you have, right? You’ve got to be very deliberate in brownfield as far as what you change,” he said, noting the change of approach is not easy. 

Oro Awaritefe, Whale’s project manager at Shell, said one way to think about it is like a subsea tieback bringing new oil to an established asset.

“We deal with it,” he said. “Once you've made the decision that we are replicating, which by the way it wasn't so easy to come to that decision, but once you do, everything is now about ‘how does it fit into the host?’ and that's a whole different mindset. It's a tieback mindset, it's a brownfield mindset.”

Throughout development, Awaritefe said, Gage as the host manager had three main rules around what types of change would be permitted.

“He said, ‘No change unless you find something unsafe, unless there's a regulatory requirement and unless there is an opportunity problem.’ If none of these are in play, then he doesn't want to hear about change,” Awaritefe said. 

Gage acknowledged that brownfield thinking is more constrained than greenfield development thinking.

“Everybody loves greenfield because it's a blank sheet of paper, but if it's paint by numbers, you have a little less creativity involved,” Gage said.

On the other hand, Jonathan Johnson, business opportunity manager for Shell Exploration, noted that replication is not void of innovation.

“I think that replication allows you to focus innovation in areas … where you can innovate to create additional value,” he said.

Whale project

Located in the ultra-deepwaters of the Alaminos Canyon region of the GoM, Whale was discovered in 2018, when oil was around $50/bbl and the industry was in a “lower for longer” phase, and appraised in 2019. Chevron is Shell’s partner in the Whale project.

With its proximity to the Perdido host 10 miles away, Shell briefly considered a subsea tieback to the development but determined a tieback was not the optimal solution for the volume of discovered reserves. Shell also evaluated a number of production solutions early in the development phase, finding many of them inadequate in meeting the company’s desire for speed and simplicity, while others weren’t right for other aspects, such as metocean conditions, Johnson said. 

Replicating the Vito semisubmersible production platform “quickly emerged” as the preferred option for speedily developing Whale at a lower cost.

One of the chief reasons that was possible is that the reservoirs for Vito and Whale are similar.

“The rocks helped us out a lot,” Gage said.

Phase one of Whale will see 15 wells drilled. 

The production semi has a capacity for 100,000 bbl/d, 200 MMcf/d and a 30-year design life. Oil is exported via pipeline to Texas and gas via a shared gas export line shared with Perdido.

The subsea equipment is rated for 10,000 psi, and Awaritefe said subsea is one of the aspects varying from Vito.

“Our subsea is terribly different from Vito subsea, so you can’t lift and shift and make that design, but there are elements that you can replicate,” he said. “The more you push that standardization and replication, I think the more flawless our execution becomes.”

Examples are using the same standardized designs for subsea trees or umbilicals across all projects, he said.

On the other hand, the topsides had some changes from the Vito host.

“We typically say that the topsides is an 80% replication, the hull is 99% replication,” Awaritefe said.

One reason for the larger variation on the topsides is changes in technology, such as obsolescence.

“What we’ve tried to do is, ‘if it's not broke, don’t fix it,’ that way we gain the most out of it, but if it's getting obsolete then we need to change it, we change it,” he said. 

The hull, however, is “predominantly dumb steel” and therefore subject to less change, he said.

For Whale, the equipment package is about 95% a copy of Vito’s equipment, the topsides about 80% and the hull about 99%. Shell went with the same mooring and installation concept for Whale as for Vito, but the water depth was different and a different vendor was used. The dry transport used the same vendor but a different vessel. 

But due to Whale’s further distance from the heliport, a different kind of helipad was needed. 

And experience with Vito allowed for some optimization on the topsides that will deliver higher payload and flexibility later in life. 

Oro Awaritefe OTC
Oro Awaritefe, Whale project manager, Shell. (Source: OTC)

“We now understood better the design that we had made on the rebuild, and we saw that we could actually accommodate, provide for future expansion or for future equipment, future things that we could not originally provide for on Vito,” Awaritefe said.

Typical offshore production unit designs start off with a weight budget with large margins.

“Since we were replicating, Vito had as-built weights of different equipment and whatnot, so we could go into the design with a very tight margin on the weight and controls,” Gage said.

That also allowed the finetuning of wind loads and other variables. 

“What are the two things that you always want at the end of the project that it's hard to add later in brownfield? Payload and space,” he said.

For minimal cost, the design gained extra space with the wing deck and 1,500 additional tons of payload onto the platform, he said.

In October 2023, Seatrium delivered the Whale production semi. The Whale host is installed, and commissioning is in progress. The export lines have been installed while the infield flowlines are under construction. The team is “working hard at” meeting the FID promise of delivering first oil this year, Johnson said.

Replication benefits

Jonathan Johnson OTC
Jonathan Johnson, business opportunity manager for Shell Exploration. (Source: OTC)

This series of replication projects isn’t a first for Shell.

In the late ‘90s, Johnson said Shell “did somewhat of a replication” with the Mars, Ram Powell and Brutus tension leg platform (TLP) deepwater production units.

Having served as an operations manager at the Ram Powell field, he understood the value of look-alike facilities.

“Being able to get on the deck of Ram Powell, having to work on the deck of Mars as an engineer and knowing where everything is the second you land on the facility. And so the value of replication really resonated with me,” he said. “I've been all in ever since.”

He said replications allow for standardization throughout the full life cycle of the asset. 

“We look towards the operations phase of the project, being able to take a mechanic or an operator or an electrician off of Vito and send them to Whale, and it's just almost like a plug and play. When some of our other assets that aren't replicants, it's much, much harder to do that,” Johnson said.

Vito’s cycle time from discovery to first oil was 13 years; the production semi required 13 million manhours to construct. Whale’s cycle time is 7 years and the production facility required 11 million manhours to construct.

Shell Sparta
Rendering of Shell’s Sparta Development. Shell operates Sparta, which was originally discovered in 2012 by Cobalt Energy, with 51% interest on behalf of partner Equinor with 49% interest. (Source: Shell Offshore Inc.)

William Gu, executive vice president and head of oil and gas international at Seatrium, said replication doesn’t mean a facility is identical.

It is possible during the various manufacturing processes to identify places where performance can improve, he said. 

As replications, Whale and Sparta realized benefits including a better-defined front end, less effort in executing contracts, reduced uncertainty, baselines for benchmarking, focused risk management for known “hot spots,” elimination of learning curves and the opportunity to use improved methods, Awaritefe said. Hull engineering was reduced by 15 months and the topsides engineering time was cut by 20% for Whale.

Shaving 2 million manhours off of Whale’s fabrication was “huge,” he said, and overall, there was a decrease in weld rejection rates.

Seatrium, which is fabricating and integrating the trio of host facilities, last month signed a memorandum of understanding with Shell focused on driving project standardization and replication, and seeking to promote best practices in designing and constructing floating production systems.

And while there are a lot of benefits to replication, Awaritefe said, it’s not without its challenges. Sometimes it is easier said than done, he said.

For example, replication is a learned skill that requires resisting the impulse to change designs, he said. 

Other potential pitfalls include the possibility of adopting errors from the previous design, execution complacency and staff stagnation, he said.

Future replicant potential?

Awaritefe said he expects Shell will look at every greenfield in the GoM with a brownfield lens. However, Johnson noted, a lot of factors play into the suitability of a specific production facility in any location, such as metocean, weather conditions and access to a means of export.

“Sometimes replication won't work. So you’ve got to understand that going in…If you try to force it, it's not going to end well, generally,” Gage said.