世界石油

（彭博社）“去年，石油和天然气公司的贷款需求同比下降了 6%，2022 年下降了 1%。

彭博资讯高级分析师安德鲁·约翰·史蒂文森表示，石油和天然气公司不需要大量贷款，因为它们现在从其基础业务中赚取了大量资金。他说，这种趋势可能会持续到本世纪末。

“过去几十年来，石油和天然气行业经历了多次繁荣和萧条，但目前看来现金充裕，”他说。健康的资产负债表反映出，在强劲的需求和欧佩克+减产的推动下，石油价格上涨给企业带来了提振。

史蒂文森表示，该行业的自由现金流如此强劲，以至于该集团的杠杆率（衡量公司相对于息税折旧及摊销前利润的净债务）从2020年的2.4降至2023年的0.8。 。他说，到本世纪末，这一比率可能会降至零以下。

史蒂文森表示，银行通常在石油和天然气公司为其资本支出计划提供资金方面发挥着关键作用，但这种情况正在改变。作为一个整体，石油和天然气行业的自由现金流与资本支出之比从2020年的0.4升至去年的1，预计到2030年将接近1.4。

BI 的分析显示，石油和天然气行业的自由现金流与资本支出之比有望上升。

史蒂文森说，换句话说，石油和天然气公司现在产生的现金平均多于其在本世纪末为资本支出提供资金所需的现金。

史蒂文森表示，雪佛龙公司和沙特阿美公司等公司可能会在 2030 年之前“大幅增加”其石油和天然气产量，并且“手头有足够的自由现金来支持这些投资”。

周五公布财报的埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龙公司都预测，他们在二叠纪盆地（该地区的石油供应量已经超过伊拉克）的产量今年将增长 10%。

国际能源署报告称，预计今年石油需求将增长约 1.3 MMbpd，达到历史新高。

BI 提供了 75 家上市公司石油和天然气总产量的估算。

World Oil

(Bloomberg) – Last year, the demand for loans from oil and gas companies fell 6% year-on-year, and that followed a decline of 1% in 2022.

Oil and gas companies don’t need a lot of loans because they’re generating so much money these days from their underlying businesses, said Andrew John Stevenson, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. And that trend is likely to continue through the end of the decade, he said.

“The oil and gas industry has experienced a number of booms and busts over the past few decades, but for now, it appears to be flush with cash,” he said. The healthy balance sheets reflect the boost that companies have received from rising oil prices, buoyed by robust demand and OPEC+ production cuts.

The sector’s free cash flow is so strong that the group’s leverage ratio, which measures a company’s net debt relative to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, fell to 0.8 in 2023 from 2.4 in 2020, Stevenson said. The ratio will likely slide below zero by the end of the decade, he said.

Banks typically play a critical role in enabling oil and gas companies to fund their capital-spending plans, but that’s changing, Stevenson said. As a group, the oil and gas industry’s free cash flow-to-capital expenditures ratio rose to 1 last year from 0.4 in 2020, and it’s forecast to approach 1.4 by 2030.

BI’s analysis shows the oil and gas industry’s free cash flow-to-capex ratio is poised to increase.

In other words, the average oil and gas company is now producing more cash than it needs to fund its capital expenditures through the end of the decade, Stevenson said.

Chevron Corp. and Saudi Aramco are among the companies that may “significantly increase” their oil and gas production through 2030 with “enough free cash on hand to support these investments,” Stevenson said.

Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron, which reported earnings Friday, are both predicting their production in the Permian basin — the U.S. region that already supplies more oil than Iraq — will climb by 10% this year.

The expected increase comes amid reports from the International Energy Agency that demand for oil is forecast to grow by about 1.3 MMbpd this year to a record high.

BI provides estimates for the combined oil and gas production of 75 publicly traded companies.