随着 2140 亿美元的新项目投资即将到来，Rystad Energy 预测未来两年石油和天然气行业将呈指数级增长。研究显示，自 2012 年和 2013 年以来，年度绿地资本支出将首次超过 1000 亿美元。

预计 2023 年和 2024 年海上活动的产量将超过疫情前的水平，占总产量的 68%。这一比例高于 2015 年至 2018 年的 40%。总体而言，未来两年，海上开发将占所有批准项目的一半，而 2015 年至 2018 年仅占 29%。

Rystad 供应链研究主管 Audun Martinsen 在一份新闻稿中表示，“海上石油和天然气生产不会转移到任何地方，该行业现在可能比以往任何时候都更重要。” “作为一种碳密集度较低的碳氢化合物开采方法，随着全球超级大国在推进能源转型的同时努力减少碳足迹，离岸运营商和服务公司应该会在未来几年中获得意外之财。”

海上钻井平台、船舶、海底和浮式生产储卸油 (FPSO) 活动都将蓬勃发展，同比增长 210 亿美元，创十年来新高。由于中东的大型项目，该地区的海上上游支出将首次超过其他所有地区。尽管沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔和阿联酋在投资方面处于领先地位，但英国和南美紧随其后。

未来两年，英国和挪威对北海的投资将增加，英国和挪威的离岸支出将分别增长30%和22%。在南美洲，圭亚那希望成为能源领域的强国，该国的投资总额将达到 70 亿美元，而巴西今年的上游支出将达到 230 亿美元。

展望未来，巴西国有石油公司Petrobras计划在2030年之前在六个油田部署16艘FPSO，而Guyanese Stabroek区块的增长也将有助于区域扩张。中东地区也将在可预见的未来增长并可能加速增长。尽管圭亚那和巴西出现增长，但南美支出预计到 2025 年将放缓。

With $214 billion in new project investments coming, Rystad Energy forecasts exponential growth in the next two years for the oil and gas sector. For the first time since 2012 and 2013, yearly greenfield capex will reach over $100 billion, according to research.

Offshore activity is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels of production in 2023 and 2024, accounting for 68% of total production. This is up from 40% between 2015 and 2018. On the whole, offshore developments will make up half of all sanctioned projects in the next two years, up from just 29% from 2015-2018.

“Offshore oil and gas production isn’t going anywhere, and the sector matters now possibly more than ever,” head of supply chain research at Rystad, Audun Martinsen, said in a press release. “As one of the lower carbon-intensive methods of extracting hydrocarbons, offshore operators and service companies should expect a windfall in the coming years as global superpowers try to reduce their carbon footprint while advancing the energy transition.”

Offshore rigs, vessels, subsea and floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) activity are all set to flourish, reaching a decade-high year-on-year increase of $21 billion. For the first time, offshore upstream spending in the region will surpass all others, due to large projects in the Middle East. And while Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE lead the way in terms of investments, the U.K. and South America are nipping at their heels.

In the next two years, investments in the North Sea from the U.K. and Norway will rise with U.K. and Norwegian offshore spending set to increase by 30% and 22% respectively. In South America, investments in Guyana will total $7 billion as the country looks to establish itself as a powerhouse within the energy sector, while Brazilian upstream spending will reach $23 billion this year.

Looking towards the future, state-owned Petrobras in Brazil plans to deploy 16 FPSOs across six fields before 2030, while growth in the Guyanese Stabroek Block will also contribute to regional expansion. The Middle East is also set to grow and possibly accelerate for the foreseeable future. Despite the growth in Guyana and Brazil, South American spending is expected to slow in 2025.