(WO) - Russia’s own data show its crude production in September fell just below its monthly target under the OPEC+ deal, according to people familiar with figures from the country’s Energy Ministry.
The key member of the alliance produced 8.97 MMbpd last month, the people said on condition of anonymity because the figures aren’t public. That’s down about 13,000 bpd down from the August level.
Russia’s Energy Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Improved compliance with production cuts has become a focus for OPEC+, with an online meeting of ministers earlier on Wednesday focusing on how members including Russia will compensate for previously exceeding their quotas. While crude prices have increased in recent days amid the military crisis in the Middle East, the fundamentals of supply and demand are a concern for producers.
At the meeting, three laggard OPEC+ nations — Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia — “confirmed that they had achieved full conformity and compensation according to the schedules submitted for September,” the alliance said in a press release, providing no figures.
Below target
Russia, which exceeded its production target earlier this year, will make small compensation adjustments in October and November, with the bulk of its extra curbs coming next summer. Geological conditions in Russia’s main oil provinces make winter cuts more challenging.
Moscow has been implementing two sets of curbs to its crude production. The first 500,000 bpd reduction was announced early last year, followed later by a 471,000 bpd cut promised in March that will start to be phased out from December. The cuts are made from the baseline level of 9.949 MMbpd.
Russia has classified official output data amid Western sanctions over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine, leaving oil market watchers with just a few gauges, such as seaborne oil exports and domestic refinery runs, to follow trends in the industry.
Earlier this year, Moscow also changed the way it reports data used to compile OPEC+ production estimates, making an independent assessment of its compliance with output cuts more difficult. The Energy Ministry now reports the data in barrels per day and appears to be using a ton-to-barrel ratio at the lower end of the traditional conversion factors used by analysts for Russia’s crudes.