商业/经济

新时代的新杂志:JPT 与 1949 年的全球石油格局

JPT 出版的第一年是改变全球石油行业的开创性事件之一。回顾 1949 年的发展,突显出人们对该行业的厚望以及新杂志的宏伟目标。

1947 年,在蓬勃发展的二叠纪盆地中,一座 203 英尺高的井架(当时是世界上最高的井架之一)正准备通过手、蹄和发动机将其迁移到一英里外。
1947 年,在蓬勃发展的二叠纪盆地中,一座 203 英尺高的井架(当时是世界上最高的井架之一)正准备通过手、蹄和发动机将其迁移到一英里外。
来源:黛德丽·范诺曼 (Deidre Van Norman) 的个人档案/比尔·舒普曼 (Bill Shoopman) 的照片,《敖德萨美国人报》。

1949 年 1 月,一本新刊物在突然大量涌现的专业技术协会刊物中争相亮相。出版市场和其他市场一样,每天都在变化,人们希望前所未有的技术飞跃不仅能摆脱最近的全球悲剧,还能防止悲剧重演。

《石油技术杂志》第 1 卷第 1 期——AIME 石油分会的官方出版物——采用了高效而引人注目的三叶草绿和奶油色封面,其 92 页包含专门用于社论、AIME 范围内的发展、即将召开的会议、专题文章和技术论文(包括一篇著名的关于作者 JB Clark 称之为“水力压裂”的新技术的论文)的部分。

JPT_2024-06_Anniv_JPT 封面 2.jpg

分会主席 IW Alcorn 的首篇社论评论的预告文字将新杂志描述为“扩大分会计划的核心,如果会员们愿意使用它来表达观点和煽动行动,它将是加强该行业的真正力量”。

JPT庆祝成立 75周年之际,对其出版第一年全球石油形势的简要回顾,为该杂志本身以及对其支持的行业的崇高期望提供了新的见解。

 

欧洲:长城与水井

在重建的世界能够用石油作为燃料之前,必须确定和平的条件,因此 1949 年,世界将目光投向了欧洲。马歇尔计划使欧洲的石油产量大幅上升,1949 年西欧的荷兰、法国和刚刚成立的德意志联邦共和国等国的石油产量略高于 1100 万桶。

十多年后,海上石油的发现彻底改变了欧洲在全球石油领域的地位,但在JPT推出时,欧洲仍然是所有人都极力避免的战争的潜在导火索——事实上,在英国,战时配给尚未结束,而在JPT推出那年,汽油配给量增加到每月可行驶 180 英里。

随着反殖民主义起义的发起(主要是针对欧洲帝国)和填补权力真空的尝试,全球仍处于动荡之中,西方与苏联集团之间的摊牌已凝固为一个危险的现实,给每个国家蒙上了阴影。北大西洋公约组织于 4 月获得批准,次月,柏林封锁结束,这被视为西方的重大象征性胜利,明显证明其对技术的依赖可以保护人类。

 

随着欧洲战后石油活动的扩大,一艘油轮在苏格兰克莱德河上成形。
随着欧洲战后石油活动的扩大,一艘油轮在苏格兰克莱德河上成形。
来源:英国国家档案馆。

中东:觉醒的巨人

然而, JPT毫不犹豫地将注意力引向了世界的另一个地区,而这个地区已经被定位为该行业的下一个焦点。1 月刊刊登了标准石油公司 John R. Suman 的文章《中东石油及其对世界的重要性》,作者在文章中描述了该地区经济崛起的必然性,这是由于其石油储量(本文撰写时为 350 亿桶)。虽然 Suman 避免具体讨论该地区自战争结束以来已经经历的政治冲突,但与当时的许多其他分析家一样,他明确地将其强大的潜力与稳定未来的梦想联系起来:“目前的欧洲复苏计划使它(中东)成为避免另一场早期战争的关键。我不知道还有什么比这更重要的了。”

石油开发不仅被视为繁荣的关键,也是和平的关键。苏曼和他的同事认识到石油基础设施和生产对马歇尔计划的成功至关重要,他们明白中东的石油生产国很快就会“把一个几乎普遍匮乏的地区变成一个普遍繁荣和舒适的地区”。

事实上,这一时期对中东来说是一次变革;第二年,中东的原油出口量将增长近 50%,并超越加勒比地区成为世界上最大的原油出口地区。虽然当时大部分活动都集中在伊朗、科威特和沙特阿拉伯,但勘探与生产工作很快也将导致邻国的产量大幅增长。

 

1949 年 1 月 JPT 杂志上对沙特阿拉伯、巴林和卡塔尔现有石油设施的描述。
1949 年 1 月版JPT 上对沙特阿拉伯、巴林和卡塔尔现有石油设施的描述

中亚:里海原油

当然,这种增长并非只发生在政治或经济上被西方主导的地区。在铁幕之后,里海沿岸长期以来一直是苏联的重要石油来源,苏联的阿塞拜疆共和国在战争期间生产了该国 75% 的石油,并曾成为德国为切断红军燃料而发动的进攻的目标,但未获成功。

但在 1949 年 11 月,JPT发表了一篇专栏文章,作者是 AIME 总裁 LE Young,警告人们警惕社会主义的渗透,尽管该组织重申了不参与任何政治事务的官方政策,苏联工程师在里海一个小岛上的棚屋里发现了 1000 米深的海底石油。这一发现很快被命名为“石油岩”,它导致了世界上第一个海上石油平台的建成和一项基础设施投资,在巅峰时期,该投资将发展成为一个由 2,000 个钻井平台组成的网络,这是一个超凡脱俗的漂浮城市,苏联人长期以来一直认为这是一项技术壮举,可以与西方建造的任何建筑相媲美。

 

亚太地区:重建的风险

在环太平洋地区,石油生产在日本帝国扩张和战败的灾难之后开始恢复;到 1950 年中期,该地区的石油产量为 195,000 桶/天,这个数字可能看起来非常少,但如果你考虑到这些岛屿和山脉遭受的蹂躏比二战官方记录的持续时间要长得多,你就会发现这个数字非常低。石油对东亚经济和社会发展的重要性早已得到认可,事实上,日本的大部分战时战略都是出于确保荷兰控制的东印度群岛石油资源的需要。

日本投降后留下的地缘政治真空很快被盟军填补;例如,在后来成为韩国的地区,三家美国石油公司于 1949 年与这个新国家美国支持的政府达成协议,旨在稳定其未来并保证美国的影响力。几个月后,这种影响力以及新美国盟友的建立就以惨痛代价得到了保障。

石油当然不是朝鲜战争的主要原因,但建立与工业化紧密相连的全球经济网络的热情以及为其提供动力的石油反映了冷战的地缘政治进程。在整个亚洲,就像其他地方一样,长期处于殖民者和侵略者统治下的人们将战争的结束视为长期寻求的自由的时刻,但他们并不总是预料到,这些自由可能会被一种将技术视为个人自由的最重要推动力的新秩序所推迟,甚至有时遭到反对。

 

非洲:和平带来斗争

殖民者对非洲资源和土地的争夺可能已持续了数个世纪,但在 19 世纪末,这种争夺加速进入历史性的“争夺”阶段,在 1949 年绝非遥远的历史。随着世界大战的结束,这些殖民帝国面临着越来越大的压力,它们无法承受。非洲军队在盟军自由事业的每一条战线上都英勇奋战,许多非洲军队在回国或复员后,认为在和平时期恢复殖民依赖是不可能的。

JPT首次亮相时,埃及这个仍牢牢处于英国势力范围内的王国,占当年非洲石油产量 1600 万桶的 99%。在以石油为中心的新世界看来,非洲主要被视为中东丰富油田的邻居,但这种情况在接下来的十年里发生了巨大变化,当时阿尔及利亚、安哥拉、利比亚、尼日利亚等地的大量发现将改变非洲大陆及其在国际舞台上的地位。随着石油的大量发现和生产,新兴的独立运动找到了新的筹码,非洲迅速成为冷战中最激烈的战场。

 

拉丁美洲:进步与选择

JPT推出时,拉丁美洲是全球石油市场的中心,主要是因为委内瑞拉是该地区的明星。该国是当年全球第二大石油生产国,产量接近 160 万桶,也是全球最大的原油出口国。

前一年,短暂的民主时期结束,新军政府决心更牢固地控制国家石油工业及其利润。因此,它于 1949 年向其他四个主要产油国(法国、伊拉克、科威特和沙特阿拉伯)发出了重大邀请,要求它们考虑成立一个代表石油生产商利益的机构,以平衡主导世界石油工业的美国及其企业“七姐妹”。

虽然石油输出国组织直到 1960 年才正式成立,但委内瑞拉倡议的影响很快就在全球显现。与此同时,哥伦比亚、阿根廷、特立尼达和秘鲁在 1949 年一直在建设自己的工业,尤其是哥伦比亚,尽管在前一年爆发的激烈内战中苦苦挣扎,但未来前景一片光明。

 

1949 年,Breton Rig 20 被部署在墨西哥湾水深 20 英尺的水域。
1949 年,Breton Rig 20 被部署在墨西哥湾水深 20 英尺的水域。
来源:能源教育基金会。

北美:新方向、新资源

不出所料,JPT创刊第一年的重点是北美。当时和现在一样,该杂志的内容以会员为中心,而且大多数会员都在美国;因此,杂志的版面为读者带来了 AIME 新石油部门成立的消息、分支机构的活动和发展、关于行业内工程专业化需求(或缺乏需求)的热烈交流,以及即将在加利福尼亚州旧金山和德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥举行的会议的技术计划。

但北美也发生了行业范围内的重大事件。Spraberry Trend 已开始产油,预示着国内生产将转向二叠纪盆地,这种趋势将持续到海上繁荣时期。

1949 年,这一领域迎来了一项关键技术发展,即第一座海上(具体而言,远离陆地)钻井平台 Breton Rig 20开始在墨西哥湾 (GOM) 的布雷顿海峡作业。到年底,墨西哥湾有 40 多口井在生产。墨西哥长期以来一直是世界顶级产油国,今年 3 月,墨西哥与美国钻井承包商达成协议,自十年前石油工业国有化以来首次承接作业。最后,JPT 12 月刊登了帝国石油公司的 JC Gustafson 的一篇文章,强调当时有 45 个钻井平台在加拿大阿尔伯塔省日益重要的 Devonian 油田中活跃。

 

位于艾伯塔省奥格登的帝国石油炼油厂艰难熬过了加拿大的冬天。
位于艾伯塔省奥格登的帝国石油炼油厂艰难熬过了加拿大的冬天。
来源:卡尔加里大学 Glenbow 图书馆和档案馆藏、图书馆和文化资源数字馆藏。

结论:和平、进步和石油

第二次世界大战后,世界工业化国家乘着摧毁轴心国的技术成就和合作的势头,认为自己有权组织全球复苏并标明其身份。他们往往没有考虑到受其政策影响的数亿人的现实和愿望,他们认为乐观地拥抱技术将防止刚刚经历的灾难重演。在一个世纪后的大部分时间里,这种乐观主义很容易成为攻击目标:即使不幼稚,也是古怪的,这是复兴的美国爆发的无所不包的消费主义的结果​​,至少在西方是这样认为的,它横扫了一切。

但当全球人民从有记载的人类历史上最黑暗的岁月中走出来时,无论乐观情绪有多么强烈,人们都很难对此不满。当然,在我们这个时代,我们也坚持将技术进步与人类文明的进步联系在一起——就像 1949 年一样,希望繁荣带来和平。

将JPT的首次亮相归功于这些推动力似乎有些夸张,但从该杂志的第一年以及它所服务的行业来看,它的创立并非仅仅源于委员会的投票。事实上,它是一种记录一个新时代的尝试。

 

进一步阅读

FE Von Estorff 著《1949 年欧洲的石油发展》 , AAPG Bulletin(1950 年)。

中东近期经济发展摘要联合国世界经济报告 (1952 年)。

石油平台紫禁城:斯大林亚特兰蒂斯的兴衰, 阿诺·弗兰克著,《明镜周刊》(2012 年)。

1949 年远东的石油发展, 作者:F. Barnwell George, AAPG Bulletin(1950 年)。

《九月的秘密:1949 年美国与韩国之间的石油协议》, 作者 Ohsoo Kwan,现代亚洲研究 (2023)

霍利斯·D·赫德伯格 (Hollis D. Hedberg) 著《1949 年非洲的石油发展》 AAPG Bulletin(1950 年)。

1949 年南美和特立尼达的石油发展, 作者:Merrill W. Haas, AAPG Bulletin(1950 年)。

美国集团在墨西哥钻探石油, 《纽约时报》(1949 年)。


世界核国家评估石油脆弱性

1949 年,每个成年人都熟悉技术破坏力的概念。虽然石油为盟军取得胜利提供了动力,但航空、冶金、化学和许多其他科学的发展也发挥了重要作用。其中最广为人知的当然是原子弹的发明。

JPT第一期发行时,“核俱乐部”仍然只有一个成员,但那个成员对于核扩散的必然性不抱有任何幻想。

罗伯特·C·温司令官的论文《原子弹战争对美国石油工业的可能性》发表于 1949 年 9 月的《美国海军研究所会刊》,文中对这些看似与现代观念格格不入的毁灭性武器持实证主义观点,但也承认美国至关重要的石油工业似乎极易受到攻击。

二战后,工人们仍在 B-36 和平缔造者的装配线上工作,B-36 和平缔造者是美国战略空军司令部至关重要的一架远程轰炸机,如 1951 年的这张照片所示。
二战后,工人们仍在 B-36 和平缔造者的装配线上工作,B-36 和平缔造者是美国战略空军司令部至关重要的一架远程轰炸机,如 1951 年的这张照片所示。
来源:美国廷克空军基地。

“如果战争爆发,原子弹也随之而来,”温写道,“如果炼油业被选为高优先级目标,由于其集中性,其地位将不值得羡慕。”尽管基础设施可能处于“不值得羡慕的地位”,但温预测,美国港口由于规模庞大,将能够承受核攻击并继续发挥其重要作用。“至少在我们这个时代,原子弹生产不太可能实现大规模生产。”

在这里,我们看到了一种乐观主义,这种乐观主义现在看来似乎与它所支持的科学相矛盾。但一如既往,背景仍然至关重要,在 1949 年,许多人认为核威慑是和平的保障,而不是持续的生存威胁。

无论如何,温和其他预见到核武器扩散的人的担忧都是有道理的。8 月 29 日,可能就在温写完论文几周后,比美国和英国分析师预计的核武器能力早了整整 3 年,苏联在现在的哈萨克斯坦成功试爆了 21 千吨的核弹“第一道闪电”。这个“俱乐部”不再是独家的。

进一步阅读

美国海军罗伯特·C·温格撰写的《原子弹战争对美国石油工业的潜在影响》 《美国海军学会会刊》(1949 年 9 月)。

原文链接/JPT
Business/economics

A New Magazine for a New Era: JPT and the Global Petroleum Landscape in 1949

JPT’s first year of publication was one of groundbreaking events that would transform the global petroleum industry. A recap of developments in 1949 emphasizes the high hopes attached to the industry—and the ambitious goals of the new magazine.

A 203-ft-tall derrick, one of the world’s tallest at the time, is prepared for relocation a mile distant—by hand, hoof, and engine—in the booming Permian Basin in 1947.
A 203-ft-tall derrick, one of the world’s tallest at the time, is prepared for relocation a mile distant—by hand, hoof, and engine—in the booming Permian Basin in 1947.
Source: Personal archive of Deidre Van Norman/Photo by Bill Shoopman, The Odessa American.

In January of 1949, a new publication jostled for its place amidst the sudden abundance of titles devoted to technical professional associations. The publishing marketplace, like every other, was evolving daily in a world that hoped technological leaps never before imagined would not only leave behind recent global tragedy but also make its recurrence impossible.

Volume 1, Number 1 of the Journal of Petroleum Technology—then the official publication of the Petroleum Branch of the AIME—wore an efficient but striking clover-green-and-cream cover, its 92 pages containing sections devoted to editorials, AIME-wide developments, upcoming meetings, feature articles, and technical papers (including, famously, a paper on a new technique that author J.B. Clark dubbed “Hydrafrac”).

JPT_2024-06_Anniv_JPT Cover 2.jpg

The teaser text for Branch Chair I.W. Alcorn’s inaugural Editorial Comment framed the new magazine as “the kingpin of a broadened branch program and a real force in strengthening the profession if members will but use it to carry opinion and incite action.”

As JPT celebrates its 75th anniversary, a brief review of the global petroleum landscape during its first year of publication casts new light on the magazine itself—and the lofty expectations attached to the industry it supported.

 

Europe: The Wall and the Well

Before a rebuilt world could be fueled by petroleum, the conditions of its peace had to be defined, and thus its eyes were on Europe in 1949. The Marshall Plan had enabled a major uptick in European oil production, such that Western Europe produced just over 11 million bbl in 1949 in countries such as the Netherlands, France, and the just-established Federal Republic of Germany.

More than a decade distant were offshore discoveries that would revolutionize Europe’s role in global petroleum, but at the time of JPT’s launch, Europe remained a potential trigger for a war that all were desperate to avoid—indeed, in the UK, wartime rationing had not yet ended, and in the year of JPT’s debut, the petrol ration was increased to allow a generous 180 miles per month.

While the globe remained in upheaval as anticolonial rebellions were launched—mostly against European empires—and attempts were made to fill power vacuums, the showdown between the West and the Soviet Bloc had solidified into a dangerous reality that cast a shadow over every nation. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was ratified in April, and the following month, the blockade of Berlin came to an end in what was seen as a major symbolic victory for the West, evident proof that its reliance upon technology could safeguard humanity.

 

An oil tanker takes shape on the River Clyde in Scotland as Europe’s postwar oil activities expand.
An oil tanker takes shape on the River Clyde in Scotland as Europe’s postwar oil activities expand.
Source: The National Archives (UK).

The Middle East: Awakening Giant

JPT wasted no time, however, in drawing attention to another part of the world that had already been positioned as the industry’s next focal point. The January issue featured the article “Middle Eastern Oil and Its Importance to the World” by Standard Oil’s John R. Suman, in which the author described the inevitability of the region’s economic ascendancy as the result of its oil reserves (35 billion bbl at the time of the article’s writing). While avoiding specific discussion of the political strife that the region had already experienced since the end of the war, Suman, like so many other analysts of the time, explicitly connected its powerhouse potential to the dream of a stable future: “The present program for European recovery makes it (the Middle East) the key to avoidance of another early war. I don't know of anything that could be much more important than that.”

Petroleum development was seen not merely as a key to prosperity, but to peace itself. Recognizing that petroleum infrastructure and production would be vital to the success of the Marshall Plan, Suman and his colleagues understood that the oil-producing nations of the Middle East would soon be “transforming an area of great and almost universal want into one of general prosperity and comfort.”

Indeed, the period was transformative for the Middle East; the very next year, its crude petroleum exports would increase by almost 50%, and it would surpass the Caribbean as the world’s largest crude-exporting region. While most activity at the time was centered in Iran, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, E&P efforts would soon lead to gigantic leaps in production in neighboring nations as well.

 

A depiction of existing petroleum facilities in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar from the January 1949 issue of JPT.
A depiction of existing petroleum facilities in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar from the January 1949 issue of JPT.

Central Asia: Caspian Crude

Such growth was not, of course, only occurring in areas politically or economically dominated by the West. Behind the Iron Curtain, the coast of the Caspian Sea had long been an important source of oil for the Soviet Union, whose Azerbaijani republic produced 75% of the country’s oil during the war and which had been the target of a failed German offensive to starve the Red Army of its fuel.

But in November of 1949—the same month that JPT published a column by AIME President L.E. Young cautioning vigilance against the infiltrations of socialism even as the organization reaffirmed its official policy of nonparticipation in all things political—Soviet engineers operating from a shed atop a small Caspian island struck oil 1000 m under the seabed. The discovery, soon named Oil Rocks, would lead to the world’s first offshore oil platform and an infrastructural investment that would bloom at its peak into a network of 2,000 drilling platforms, an otherworldly floating city the Soviets long upheld as a technological feat to rival anything constructed by the West.

 

Asia Pacific: The Perils of Rebuilding

In the Pacific Rim, petroleum production had begun to regain strength after the cataclysm of Imperial Japan’s expansion and defeat; by mid-1950, 195,000 B/D would be produced in the region, an amount that may seem extremely modest until one considers the violence that had scorched its islands and mountains for much longer than the official duration of World War II. The importance of petroleum to the economic and social development of East Asia had long been recognized, and in fact much of Japan’s wartime strategy had been motivated by its need to secure petroleum resources in the Dutch-held East Indies.

The geopolitical vacuum left by Japan’s surrender was quickly filled by the Allies; in what would become South Korea, for example, a trio of American oil companies reached agreements with the new nation’s US-backed government in 1949 intended to stabilize its future and guarantee American influence. That influence, and the creation of a new American ally, was to be secured at a terrible price only months later.

Oil was certainly not a primary cause of the Korean War, but the zeal to create a global economic network locked into industrialization, and the petroleum that powered it, mirrored the geopolitical course of the Cold War. Throughout Asia, as elsewhere, populations long under the domain of colonizers and invaders saw the end of the war as a moment of long-sought freedom but did not always anticipate that these freedoms might be delayed, and indeed sometimes opposed, by a new order that saw technology as the most-important agent of personal liberty.

 

Africa: Peace Brings Struggle

The colonial quest for Africa’s resources and land may have been centuries old, but the acceleration of that quest into the historical “Scramble” at the close of the 19th century was hardly ancient history in 1949. With the end of the world war, these colonial empires faced growing pressures they could not withstand. African troops had fought with distinction on every front of the war in the Allied cause of freedom, and many, upon their return or demobilization, saw the resumption of colonial dependence in peacetime as an impossibility.

At the time of JPT’s debut, Egypt, a kingdom that remained firmly in the sphere of British influence, was responsible for 99% of the 16 million bbl of African oil produced that year. In terms of the new petroleum-centric world, Africa was seen primarily as the neighbor of the Middle East’s abundant fields—but that would change dramatically in the next decade, when vast discoveries in Algeria, Angola, Libya, Nigeria, and elsewhere would transform the continent and its role on the international stage. As oil was discovered and produced in massive amounts, nascent independence movements discovered new leverage, and Africa quickly became arguably the most inflamed of Cold War battlefields.

 

Latin America: Advancements and Alternatives

Latin America was central to the world oil scene at the time of JPT’s launch, mostly because of its star performer Venezuela. The nation was the world’s second-largest producer of oil that year at nearly 1.6 million bbl, and the world’s largest exporter of crude.

A brief period of democracy had ended the previous year, and the new military government was determined to take firmer hold of the national oil industry and its profits. It thus extended a fateful invitation in 1949 to four other major oil-producing nations—Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia—to consider formation of a body that would represent the interest of oil producers as a counterbalance to the US and its corporate “Seven Sisters” that dominated the world’s oil industry.

While the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would not be chartered officially until 1960, it would not be long before the effect of Venezuela’s initiative would be felt globally. In the meantime, Colombia, Argentina, Trinidad, and Peru were building their own industries throughout 1949, with Colombia in particular, despite struggling through a bitter civil conflict that had erupted the previous year, showing great promise for the future.

 

The Breton Rig 20 was deployed in waters of up to 20 ft deep in the Gulf of Mexico in 1949.
The Breton Rig 20 was deployed in waters of up to 20 ft deep in the Gulf of Mexico in 1949.
Source: Energy Education Foundation.

North America: New Directions, New Resources

Unsurprisingly, JPT’s focus during its first year was on North America. The magazine’s content was, then as now, member-centric, and most members were in the US; thus, its pages brought readers news of the establishment of the new Petroleum Division of AIME, branch activities and growth, spirited exchanges about the desirability—or lack thereof—of engineering specialization within the industry, and technical programs for upcoming meetings in San Francisco, California, and San Antonio, Texas.

But momentous industrywide events also were unfolding in North America. The Spraberry Trend had begun to produce, heralding a shift to the Permian Basin in domestic production that would endure until the offshore boom.

And in that domain, 1949 saw a critical technological development as the Breton Rig 20, the first offshore (specifically, out of sight of land) drilling rig, began operations in the Breton Sound of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). More than 40 wells were producing in the GOM by year’s end. Mexico itself, long a top world producer, made agreements with US drilling contractors in March to handle operations for the first time since the nationalization of its oil industry a decade earlier. Finally, the December issue of JPT featured an article by Imperial Oil’s J.C. Gustafson highlighting the fact that 45 rigs were then active in the increasingly important Devonian pools of Alberta, Canada.

 

An Imperial Oil refinery in Ogden, Alberta, soldiers through the Canadian winter.
An Imperial Oil refinery in Ogden, Alberta, soldiers through the Canadian winter.
Source: Glenbow Library and Archives Collection, Libraries and Cultural Resources Digital Collections, University of Calgary.

Conclusion: Peace, Progress, and Petroleum

In the wake of World War II, the industrialized nations of the world, riding the momentum of technological accomplishment and cooperation that had destroyed the Axis, took it as their right to organize the globe’s recovery and label its identity. Often failing to consider the realities and desires of the hundreds of millions of people affected by their policies, they believed that an optimistic embrace of technology would prevent a recurrence of what had just been endured. Viewed the better part of a century later, such optimism can present an easy target: quaint if not naïve, the result of an all-encompassing consumerism bursting forth from a resurgent US and, as told in the West at any rate, sweeping all before it.

But one can hardly begrudge optimism, whatever its strain, in a global population emerging from the darkest years in recorded human history. Certainly in our own time, we, too, doggedly link technological progress with the betterment of human civilization—and, just as in 1949, hope that prosperity brings peace.

Crediting the debut of JPT to these impulses may seem grandiose, but it is clear enough from a review of the magazine’s first year, and the industry to which it was devoted, that its creation was born of more than merely a committee vote. It was, in fact, an attempt to chronicle an unmistakably new era.

 

For Further Reading

Petroleum Developments in Europe in 1949 by F.E. Von Estorff, AAPG Bulletin (1950).

Summary of Recent Economic Developments in the Middle East United Nations World Economic Report (1952).

Forbidden City of Oil Platforms: The Rise and Fall of Stalin’s Atlantis by Arno Frank, Der Spiegel (2012).

Petroleum Developments in Far East in 1949 by F. Barnwell George, AAPG Bulletin (1950).

The Secret of September: The 1949 Oil Agreements Between the United States and South Korea by Ohsoo Kwan, Modern Asian Studies (2023).

Petroleum Developments in Africa in 1949 by Hollis D. Hedberg, AAPG Bulletin (1950).

Petroleum Developments in South America and Trinidad in 1949 by Merrill W. Haas, AAPG Bulletin (1950).

US Group to Drill for Oil in Mexico, The New York Times (1949).


The World’s Nuclear Nation Assesses Petroleum Vulnerability

Every adult human would, in 1949, have been familiar with the notion of technology’s destructive potential. While petroleum had powered the Allied drive to victory, developments in aeronautics, metallurgy, chemistry, and a host of other sciences also had proved critical. The most universally identifiable of these, of course, was the creation of the atomic bomb.

When JPT’s first issue shipped, the “nuclear club” still counted a membership of one, but that member harbored no illusions about the inevitability of proliferation.

In Commander Robert C. Wing’s paper “Potentialities of Atomic Warfare Against the U.S. Petroleum Industry,” published in the September 1949 issue of the Proceedings of the United States Naval Institute, the positivist view of these devastating weapons that can seem so alien to modern sensibilities is evident but is tempered with the acknowledgment that the US’s all-important petroleum industry appeared deeply vulnerable.

Workers stayed employed post-WWII working the assembly lines of the B-36 Peacemaker, a long-range bomber critical to the US Strategic Air Command, as seen in this photo from 1951.
Workers stayed employed post-WWII working the assembly lines of the B-36 Peacemaker, a long-range bomber critical to the US Strategic Air Command, as seen in this photo from 1951.
Source: US Tinker Air Force Base.

“When war comes, and if with it comes the atomic bomb,” Wing wrote, “the refinery industry because of its concentrated nature will be in an unenviable status if it is selected as a high-priority target objective.” Despite the infrastructure’s potentially “unenviable status,” however, Wing predicted that US ports, because of their sheer size, would be able to endure a nuclear attack and continue their important functions. “It is unlikely that atomic bomb production can achieve, at least in our time, anything like mass production.”

Here, one sees an optimism that seems now at odds with the science it supports. But, as always, context remains critical, and in 1949, nuclear deterrence was viewed by many as a guarantor of peace rather than as a constant existential threat.

In any case, the apprehension of Wing, and others who foresaw the spread of nuclear weapons, was well-placed. On 29 August, likely only weeks after Wing had finished writing his paper, and a full 3 years earlier than American and British analysts had anticipated its ability to do so, the Soviet Union successfully tested its 21-kiloton bomb “First Lightning” in what is now Kazakhstan. The “club” was exclusive no more.

For Further Reading

Potentialities of Atomic Warfare Against the U.S. Petroleum Industry by Robert C. Wing, USN, Proceedings of the United States Naval Institute (September 1949).