China’s crude oil inventories rose by an estimated 900,000 B/D between January and August, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency said the stockpiling in China has helped offset downward pressure on prices that would typically accompany rising global inventories.
Brent crude held within a narrow range around $68/bbl during the second and third quarters of 2025 as a result, the EIA said in its latest short-term energy outlook released on 9 October.
The EIA also estimated that global petroleum inventories increased by an average of 1.8 million B/D during the second and third quarters of 2025. The increase reflects that production growth from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers in North and South America has outpaced global demand.
Between April and August, the latest period for which EIA estimates are available, China’s crude inventories grew by an average of 1.1 million B/D. Normally, this level of global inventory growth would weigh on oil prices, but Brent crude instead rose modestly, averaging $68/bbl in the second quarter and $69/bbl in the third quarter of 2025.
The EIA noted that China does not publish official data on crude inventories. Its estimates are based on reported imports, exports, refining activity, and inventory data from third-party and official sources. Depending on the data source and underlying assumptions, estimates of China’s stock builds vary by about 500,000 B/D on average with some showing a difference of up to 1.1 million B/D. The EIA said it uses an average value for comparison purposes.
The report also pointed to geopolitical risks, shifting trade patterns, and the growing use of shadow tanker fleets as factors contributing to uncertainty in global oil balance estimates.
The EIA expects global inventories to build at an average of 2.2 million B/D from the fourth quarter of 2025 through 2026, though it remains unclear how much of this increase will appear in visible storage data. Brent crude is forecast to decline from an average of $68/bbl in September to $52/bbl in early 2026 as inventories peak.
However, the agency added that if China maintains stock builds near this year’s average of 900,000 B/D, prices could outperform its forecast, while slower builds would likely result in more downward pressure.
