编者注：此数据部分首次出现在 Offshore 杂志 2024 年 3 月至 4 月号中。单击此处查看完整问题。

成本上涨将破坏 FPS 承包机会

预计 2024 年浮式生产系统 (FPS) EPC 合同授予金额将达到约 130 亿美元。然而，除了 2024 年第一季度已推迟的 20 亿美元合同授予价值之外，约 25%（33 亿美元）的授予价值容易受到延误。虽然 FPS 招标活动依然强劲，但勘探与生产仍继续与供应链成本通胀作斗争，这使得 FPS 招标活动依然强劲。 FPSO 需求量已达到 2014 年以来的最高水平，自 2020 年以来成本增长了 35-40%。虽然 2024 年剩余时间的 EPC 合同确定价值为 87 亿美元，但巴西国家石油公司 FPSO 需求的合同时间表仍存在不确定性，因为巴西国家石油公司未能就其一些成熟的 FPSO 招标达成商业条款，并且还推迟了 SEAP I和SEAP II FPSO 以及Barracuda/Caratinga替代 FPSO 等装置的投标截止日期。” Westwood Global Energy团体

专业人士潜入更深的水域

埃克森美孚、壳牌、雪佛龙、英国石油公司、道达尔能源公司和埃尼公司今年将继续谨慎对待勘探支出，钻探活动将为未来繁忙的一年做好准备。 2020 年至 2024 年间，这些生产商每年平均支出总计 70 亿美元。前沿钻探正在激发人们对丰收年的乐观情绪，特别是大西洋边缘、东地中海和亚洲的深水项目。 2023 年，向主要参与者授予的近海面积大幅增加，总计 112,000 平方公里。这一趋势表明，大力推动更深水域的发展，超过一半的获奖区块针对深水或超深水储量。与 2023 年相比，预计今年将增加约 50 口深水和超深水探井。去年钻探的所有海上探井中约 27% 为深水/超深水井，而今年此类井的比例预计将升至 35% 左右。 � 雷斯塔能源

海底电力电缆安装蓬勃发展

2019年至2023年间，已安装的海底电缆数量增加了60%，每年都创下新的电缆安装记录。电缆制造商 LS Cable & System、NKT 和 Nexans 在最近发布的 2023 年年度报告中均显示了创纪录的 EBITDA 利润率。随着海上风电的增长，对阵列和输出电缆的需求也随之增长，自 2019 年以来，年装机容量增长了 30%。对于互连器而言，增长的原因在于它们能够让电力根据供需模式跨地区流动。 ”斯宾纳吉

Editor's note: This Data section first appeared in the March-April 2024 issue of Offshore magazine. Click here to view the full issue.

Cost inflation set to derail FPS contracting opportunities

The floating production system (FPS) EPC contract award value in 2024 is forecast to close at about $13 billion. However, about 25% ($3.3bn) of the award value is susceptible to delays, in addition to $2 billion of contract award value already postponed in Q1 2024. While FPS tendering activities remain robust, E&Ps continue to battle supply chain cost inflation, which has been at its highest since 2014 and has experienced a 35-40% cost increase since 2020. While firm EPC award value for the remainder of 2024 is valued at $8.7 billion, uncertainties remain on the contracting timeline for FPSO demand from Petrobras, as the Brazilian NOC has failed to agree to commercial terms on some of its matured FPSO tenders, and it has also postponed the bid submission deadline for units such as the SEAP I and SEAP II FPSOs and the Barracuda/Caratinga replacement FPSO.—Westwood Global Energy Group

Majors dive into deeper waters

Exxon Mobil, Shell, Chevron, bp, TotalEnergies and Eni will continue to exercise caution in exploration spending this year, with drilling activity poised for a busy year ahead. These producers will have spent on average a combined $7 billion each year between 2020 and 2024. Frontier drilling is fueling optimism for a productive year, particularly deepwater projects in the Atlantic Margin, Eastern Mediterranean and Asia. There was a significant increase in 2023 in awarded offshore acreage to major players, totaling 112,000 sq km. The trend suggests a significant push toward deeper waters, with more than half of the awarded blocks targeting deepwater or ultradeepwater reserves. About 50 more deepwater and ultradeepwater exploratory wells are predicted this year compared to 2023. About 27% of all offshore exploration wells drilled last year were deepwater/ultradeepwater, while this year the share of such wells is expected to rise to about 35%.—Rystad Energy

Subsea power cable installation is booming

The number of installed submarine cables increased by 60% between 2019 and 2023, with a new record for cable installations met each year. Cable manufacturers LS Cable & System, NKT and Nexans each show record EBITDA margins in their recently published 2023 annual reports. The demand for array and export cables has followed the growth of offshore wind, showing a 30% increase in installed annual capacity since 2019. For interconnectors, growth is explained by their ability to allow electricity to flow across territories according to supply and demand patterns.—Spinergie