能源专家表示，油田服务 (OFS) 界可以采取简化运营、推动技术发展和利用数据推动决策等措施来应对当前的市场波动。

然而，由于石油和天然气行业在油价疲弱但走强的情况下面临持续的阻力，OFS 参与者之间的整合似乎是不可避免的。Enverus 情报团队副总裁马克·查普曼 (Mark Chapman) 表示，预计该行业将在未来一到三年内萎缩，这种情况在 2014 年至 2016 年的低谷期间有所体现。

查普曼补充说，在上次经济低迷期间，对效率和降低成本的追求也有所增强，这使得勘探与生产公司的边际业务有利可图。由于勘探与生产公司成功寻求折扣，这些收益并未转化为 OFS 行业的盈利能力。

这一次，与六年前相比，没有多少利润，一些服务公司可能无法降低价格。

查普曼在最近的一次会议上表示：“我们必须稍微坚持一下我们的立场，不要让设备投入使用，直到它实际上能够以能够盈利并产生自由现金流的价格运行。”网络研讨会。

“一般来说，在大多数地区开展活动是没有意义的，”他补充道，并指出 25% 的折扣并不能解决今天的问题。“行业必须变得更加健康。”

从最近的经济低迷中脱颖而出的最健康的公司可能是那些能够最大程度地降低销售商品成本并能够获得市场份额的公司。

Enverus 高级石油工程分析师兼顾问阿卡什·夏尔马 (Akash Sharma) 补充道，服务业的某些部分将比其他部分遭受更大的影响。他指出，土地钻探商、压力泵商和工具制造商对销售、一般和管理费用的变化有不同的敏感性，它们各自的成本和合同结构各不相同。

“我认为最大的推动因素是土地钻探公司相当整合并且拥有定价权，”查普曼说。

“我们在压力泵等[细分市场]中遇到的挑战是它仍然非常细分，”他补充说，有主要参与者以及许多规模相距不远的小公司。“压力泵”的供应有些过剩。 这也无助于定价能力。”

查普曼表示，该行业需要进行整合。然而，鉴于供应过剩和缺乏吸引力的资产负债表，这并不容易。

他说：“在某些合并看起来可行之前，可能必须先实施第 11 章，才能真正巩固合并并提高定价能力。”

战略步骤

分析师表示，技术是 OFS 参与者可以帮助其度过动荡时期的杠杆之一。

查普曼说，尽可能实现现场活动自动化，以降低成本并提高效率。另一个举措是简化运营，重点关注业务中最赚钱的部分。

“如果你做了 10 件事，并且你知道自己做得很好，那么现在就专注于这三件事就很重要，”夏尔马补充道。

查普曼说，让外部数据驱动决策以帮助确定风险。随着情况的转变，考虑谁将重返工作岗位以及在哪里重返工作岗位。

“因此，利用数据做出决策来了解你的目标应该在哪里，然后去追求它们将非常重要，”他说。“在我们现在无法走出去与每个人握手的世界里，你必须从不同的角度来处理事情，我真的认为数据可以极大地帮助推动这一点。”

经济杠杆

随着美国页岩油生产商从疲软的油价中恢复过来，其中一些已经将之前关闭的油井恢复上线，其已钻但未完成的油井（DUC）库存可能会随着重新完井和修井而减少。Enverus 高级合伙人乔纳森·戈德温 (Jonathan Godwin)表示，这些杠杆最具有经济意义。

“为了扭转停工局面，提升成本相对较小。戈德温说，接下来有意义的事情可能就是开始烧毁你的 DUC 库存。“许多 DUC 都会进入明年，你实际上会将钻井成本视为沉没成本，而且你几乎会以四分之一周期为基础进入明年。”

查普曼补充道，这非常经济。

“还有一些油井是 2019 年第四季度钻探的自然库存的一部分，这些油井已经成为今年的沉没成本。他们应该已经完成​​了。但他们不是，他们是真正的 DUC 中不断增长的一部分，”他说。

分析师认为这是一个让一些压裂船队更快恢复的机会。

然而，恢复时间越长，让员工恢复运行设备就越困难。

经济低迷导致减薪、大幅削减预算和大范围裁员。一些船厂已被关闭或与其他船厂合并。查普曼说，这些举措有所帮助。“问题是，随着这次修正的到来，它是否会持续更长的一段时间。”

如果被要求，员工会返回，还是会转移到周期性较小、离家较近或工作时间更好的不同行业。

Enverus 数据显示，自今年年初以来，钻机数量减少了 60%-65%，而压裂船队则大幅减少了 85% 以上。

戈德温说：“在平衡的市场中，每个压裂船队通常拥有大约两台钻机，而今天的比例看起来约为六比一。”他补充说，这导致了 DUC 的大量建设。“我们相信 DUC 建设将持续到今年第三季度末。到那时，我们认为我们将稍微扭转局面，甚至可能开始销毁一些 DUC。”

Enverus 预测完工量将同比下降 55%。

Streamlining operations, pushing technology and using data to drive decisions are among the steps the oilfield services (OFS) community could take to weather current market volatility, energy experts say.

Consolidation among OFS players, however, seems inevitable as the oil and gas industry faces continued headwinds amid weak yet strengthening oil prices. Expectations are for the sector to shrink over the next one to three years, something seen a bit during the 2014-2016 trough, according to Mark Chapman, vice president of Enverus’ intelligence team.

The drive toward efficiency and lower costs also picked up during the previous downturn, making marginal plays profitable for E&Ps, Chapman added. The gains did not translate to much benefit in terms of profitability for the OFS sector as E&Ps successfully sought discounts.

This time, without much margin built compared to six years ago, some service companies may not be able to lower prices.

“We’re going have to stick to our guns a little bit and not push equipment to work until it can actually be at a price that’s going to be profitable and generate free cash flow,” Chapman said during a recent webinar.

“Most areas just aren’t going to make sense, in general, to do activity in,” he added, noting a 25% discount is not going to solve today’s problem. “We’re going to have to be a healthier industry.”

Companies that emerge the healthiest from the latest downturn could be those able to reduce the cost of goods sold the most and those able to gain market share.

Certain parts of the service sector will suffer more than others, added Akash Sharma, senior petroleum engineering analyst and consultant for Enverus. He pointed out different sensitivities of land drillers, pressure pumpers and tool manufacturers, which each have varying cost and contract structures, to changes in selling, general and administrative expenses.

“I think the biggest driver of that is land drillers are fairly consolidated and have had pricing power,” Chapman said.

“The challenge we’ve had in [a segment] like pressure pumping is it’s very segmented still,” and there are major players plus many smaller companies not far off in scale, he added. “We’ve been somewhat oversupplied with pressure pumping. That doesn’t help that pricing power either.”

Consolidation within the sector is needed, Chapman said. However, it won’t be easy given the oversupply and unattractive balance sheets.

“Some Chapter 11 might have to happen before some of these mergers look palatable to really consolidate that down and increase the pricing power,” he said.

Strategic Steps

Technology is one of the levers OFS players can pull to help it through volatile times, according to the analysts.

Automate field level activities when possible to lower costs and increase efficiency, Chapman said. Another move is to streamline operations, focusing on the most profitable parts of the business.

“If you do 10 things and you know you do three things really well, it’s important to focus on those three things right now,” Sharma added.

Let external data drive decisions to help determine risk, Chapman said. As situations turn around, consider who is returning to work and where.

“So, using data to make those decisions to understand where your target should be and then go after them is going to be hugely important,” he said. “In a world where we can’t go out and shake everybody’s hand right now, you have to approach things from a little bit different angle and I really think that data can tremendously help to drive up that.”

Economic Levers

As U.S. shale players move to recover from weak oil prices, with some already bringing wells previously shut in back online, a drawdown in their inventory of drilled-but-uncompleted wells (DUCs) could follow along with recompletions and workovers. These levers make the most economic sense to pull, according to Jonathan Godwin, senior associate for Enverus.

“The lifting cost is going to be relatively small to turn a shut-in around. The next thing that’s going to make sense is probably to start burning down your DUC inventory,” Godwin said. “If a lot of these DUCs push into next year, you’re really looking at drilling costs as a sunk cost, and you’re coming into next year almost on a quarter cycle basis.”

That’s very economic, Chapman added.

“We also have some wells that were part of that natural inventory drilled in the fourth quarter of 2019 that are already sunk costs for this year. They should have been completed already. But they’re not and they’re part of that growing wedge of true DUCs,” he said.

Analysts see this as an opportunity to bring some frac fleets back sooner.

However, the longer the recovery takes, the harder it will be to get employees back to get equipment running.

The downturn has resulted in salary reductions, deep budget cuts and widespread layoffs. Some yards have been shut or consolidated with others. The moves have helped, Chapman said. “The question is does it carry over for a little longer term as this correction comes around.”

Will employees return, if asked, or move onto different industries that are less cyclical, closer to home or have better hours.

Enverus data show the rig count has dropped by 60%-65% since the beginning of the year, while frac fleets have plummeted by more than 85%.

“In a balanced market you generally have about two rigs for every frac fleet, and that ratio today looks like it’s about six to one,” Godwin said, adding this leads to a large build in DUCs. “We believe that that DUC build will continue through the end of the third quarter this year. At that point in time, we think that we’re going to turn things around a little bit and maybe even begin to burn some DUCs.”

Enverus forecasts completions will fall by 55% year-over-year.