Rystad 表示，到 2030 年，二叠纪天然气产量将增长 41%

Rystad Energy 的数据显示，二叠纪盆地的天然气产量已超过疫情前的高位，预计到 2030 年将比目前水平增长 41%。

彼得罗·D
皮茨
哈特能源

德克萨斯州米德兰市二叠纪盆地的产量预计到 2030 年将增长约 6.3 Bcf/d，比目前水平增长约 41%。 

Rystad Energy 咨询高级副总裁 Rob Cordray 告诉 Hart Energy Executive 与会者，到本十年末，二叠纪盆地的大部分天然气产量将来自特拉华子盆地，然后是米德兰子盆地石油会议。 

美国二叠纪盆地以及美国其他页岩盆地是稳定美国液化天然气出口和未来预计增长的关键。科德雷说，二叠纪盆地的石油和天然气产量已经超过了大流行前的高位。 

“从2018年1月到2022年6月，埃尔米亚产量以每年15.3%的速度增长，丰富的天然气产量带动了增长，而由于基准产量较高，轻质油产量在产量中保持了更大的份额，”他说，并补充道“丰富的天然气产量已突破产量份额 30%-35% 的份额范围，到 2022 年第二季度达到近 40%。”

二叠纪盆地的天然气产量增长主要由特拉华盆地和米德兰盆地的天然气产量带动，2018 年上半年至 2022 年上半年天然气产量翻了一番，分别达到 11.7 Bcf/d 和 6.8 Bcf/d。然而，根据 Rystad 的数据，中央盆地平台和二叠纪其他地区的生产结构几乎没有变化。

尽管二叠纪盆地的产量不断上升，但由于主要子盆地的大幅改善，火炬燃烧强度却下降了 70%。科德雷表示，管道容量的扩大与火炬燃烧的立即减少同时发生。

他补充说，还应该指出的是，由于缺乏基础设施以及天然气加工设施和管道的中断，2018年至2019年期间二叠纪盆地的火炬燃烧量有所增加。

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二叠纪盆地、海恩斯维尔页岩是美国产量增长的关键

Cordray 表示，美国排名前五的页岩气田——埃尔米亚米德兰、二叠纪特拉华、海恩斯维尔、尤蒂卡和马塞勒斯——预计将持续增长，预计到 2030 年将帮助天然气产量升至 110 Bcf/d 左右。这五个气田预计将持续增长。到 2040 年，其天然气产量将占美国天然气总产量的 73%。

由于天然气产量增长趋势大致相同，美国对墨西哥的液化天然气管道天然气出口也将增加。 

美国液化天然气出口不断增长

由于对低碳能源的强劲需求以及欧洲争相购买液化天然气以取代俄罗斯管道天然气进口的损失，美国液化天然气出口预计将在本十年末加速增长，到 2030 年将超过 25 Bcf/d。

到本世纪末，美国用于生产和受制裁项目的液化天然气总出口量到 2030 年将达到美国液化天然气总产量的 25% 左右，到 2040 年将达到 31%-32% 左右。

Rystad 估计，从现在到 2024 年，澳大利亚、加拿大、印度尼西亚、墨西哥、莫桑比克、美国和俄罗斯的全球液化天然气产能新增量预计将达到每年 1.33 亿吨 (mtpa)，其中美国墨西哥湾沿岸液化天然气项目代表88 吨/年或约 66%。

美国墨西哥湾沿岸出口终端管道基础设施图 - Rystad Energy
Rystad Energy 的 Rob Cordray 表示，批准的管道基础设施可确保更多二叠纪盆地天然气到达美国墨西哥湾沿岸出口码头。（来源：Rystad Energy研究与分析）

普京对乌克兰的军事入侵正在推动对美国液化天然气出口的需求，因为俄罗斯的制裁和俄罗斯天然气出口量被取消市场导致液化天然气市场失去平衡，留下了一个巨大的缺口需要填补。

全球制裁导致俄罗斯管道天然气和液化天然气出口大幅下降，许多欧洲国家已转向增加液化天然气进口，以确保国内能源安全。

尽管亚洲将液化天然气进口量从 2021 年的 80% 减少至 75% 左右，但亚洲需求对液化天然气进口的替代品有限。由于液化天然气仍然是亚洲国家天然气进口的主要方式，管道天然气进口目前分别占 25% 和 20% 左右。科德雷说道。

原文链接/hartenergy

Permian Gas Production Set to Rise 41% by 2030, Rystad Says

Gas production from the Permian Basin has already surpassed pre-pandemic highs and is slated to rise 41% by 2030 compared to current levels, according to Rystad Energy data.

Pietro D
Pitts
Hart Energy

MIDLAND, Texas—Gas production from the Permian Basin is expected to grow approximately 6.3 Bcf/d by 2030, up around 41% compared to current levels. 

The bulk of the Permian’s gas production will come from the Delaware sub-basin followed by the Midland sub-basin by the end of the decade, Rob Cordray, senior vice president of consulting at Rystad Energy, told attendees to the Hart Energy Executive Oil Conference. 

The U.S. Permian Basin as well as the other U.S. shale basins are key to anchoring U.S. LNG exports and projected rises in the future. Permian production of both oil and gas has already surpassed pre-pandemic highs, Cordray said. 

“Permian production grew at a rate of 15.3% per annum from January 2018 to June 2022, rich gas production led growth, while light oil volumes have maintained a greater share of production owing to higher baseline volumes,” he said, adding that “rich gas volumes have broken out above the share range bound 30%-35% share of production, reaching nearly 40% in the second quarter of 2022.”

Volume growth in the Permian Basin has been led by gas production in both the Delaware and Midland basins with volumes doubling between first-half 2018 and first-half 2022 to 11.7 Bcf/d and 6.8 Bcf/d, respectively. However, the production mix in the Central Basin Platform and elsewhere in the Permian has seen little or no change, according to Rystad data.

Despite the rising production profile in the Permian Basin, flaring intensity has declined by 70%, led by substantial improvements in key sub-basins. Expanded pipeline capacity has coincided with immediate flaring reductions, according to Cordray.

It should also be noted that flared volumes in the Permian Basin rose between 2018-2019 owing to a lack of infrastructure as well as outages of gas processing facilities and pipelines, he added.

RELATED:

Permian Basin, Haynesville Shale Key to Rising US Production

Cordray said the top five U.S. shale plays—Permian Midland, Permian Delaware, Haynesville, Utica and Marcellus—are slated for continued growth and expected to assist gas production rise to around 110 Bcf/d in 2030. The five plays are set to account for 73% of all U.S. gas output by 2040.

U.S. LNG piped-gas exports to Mexico are also set to rise anchored by much of the same gas production growth trends. 

Anchor Rising U.S. LNG Exports

Growth in U.S. LNG exports is expected to accelerate through the end of the decade and surpass 25 Bcf/d by 2030 amid strong demand for the low-carbon energy source and as Europe scrambles to buy up LNG to replace lost Russian piped gas-imports.

Through the end of the decade, U.S. gross LNG exports for producing and sanctioned projects could reach around 25% of total U.S. LNG production by 2030 and around 31%-32% by 2040.

Global LNG capacity additions from Australia, Canada, Indonesia, Mexico, Mozambique, the U.S. and Russia are slated to reach 133 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) between now and 2024, according to Rystad estimates, with U.S. LNG projects on the Gulf Coast representing 88 mtpa or around 66%.

US Gulf Coast export terminal pipeline infrastructure map - Rystad Energy
Sanctioned pipeline infrastructure ensures more Permian Basin gas will reach U.S. Gulf Coast export terminals, according to Rystad Energy’s Rob Cordray. (Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis)

Putin’s military invasion in Ukraine is driving demand for U.S. LNG exports as the LNG markets have been thrown out of balance due to Russian sanctions and the removal of Russian gas export volumes from the market, which has left a large hole to fill.

The global sanctions have resulted in a significant decline in both piped-gas and LNG exports from Russia and many European nations have turned to rising LNG imports to ensure domestic energy security.

While Asia has reduced its LNG imports to around 75% compared to 80% in 2021, Asian demand has limited alternatives to LNG imports. Piped-gas imports are currently around 25% compared to 20%, respectively as LNG continues to be the predominant method for gas imports among Asian nations. Cordray said.