石油价格

由于 OPEC+ 持续削减石油产量，国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 下调了对沙特经济增长的预测。IMF 目前预计 2024 年沙特经济增长率仅为 1.7%，比之前预测的 2.6% 低了近一个百分点。减产的影响预计将延续到明年，IMF 预测 2025 年沙特 GDP 增长率为 4.7%，较 4 月份的预测下调了 1.3 个百分点。

值得庆幸的是，沙特阿拉伯的经济对石油的依赖正在逐渐减少。今年早些时候，该国经济和计划部透露，到 2023 年，非石油收入将达到该国国内生产总值 (GDP) 的 50%，创历史新高。

沙特的非石油经济按不变价格计算价值为 1.7 万亿沙特里亚尔（约合 4530 亿美元），出口、投资和消费支出稳步增长是其推动力。去年，沙特王国的私营部门投资增长了 57%，达到创纪录的 9590 亿沙特里亚尔（约合 2540 亿美元），而艺术和娱乐以及实体服务出口则实现了三位数增长，分别达到 106% 和 319%，反映出沙特王国正在转变为全球旅游和娱乐目的地。与此同时，食品行业增长了 77%，运输和仓储服务增长了 29%，卫生和教育增长了 10.8%，贸易、餐饮和酒店增长了 7%，而运输和通讯增长了 3.7%。

早在 4 月份，国际货币基金组织就预测，由于加沙战争、红海航运袭击和石油产量下降，中东经济的增长速度将低于早先的预测，这加剧了高债务和借贷成本的现有挑战。国际货币基金组织现在预计，中东和北非 (MENA) 的经济将从 10 月份区域展望中的 3.4% 增长 2.7%。不过，这将意味着从 2023 年开始增长 1.9%。

作者：Alex Kimani，Oilprice.com

主图（来源：路透社）

Oil Price

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its growth forecast for the Saudi economy due to ongoing oil production cuts by OPEC+. The IMF now sees 2024 growth clocking in at just 1.7%, nearly a percentage point lower than its earlier projection of 2.6%. The effects of the cuts are expected to spill over into the coming year, with the IMF projecting GDP growth of 4.7% in 2025, a downward revision of 1.3 percentage points from April.

Thankfully, Saudi Arabia is increasingly becoming less reliant on oil to power its economy. Earlier in the year, the country’s Ministry of Economy and Planning revealed that non-oil revenues hit 50% of the Kingdom’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, the highest level ever.

The country’s non-oil economy was valued at 1.7 trillion Saudi Riyals (approximately 453 billion U.S. dollars) at constant prices, driven by steady growth in exports, investment and consumer spending. Last year, the Kingdom’s private-sector investments expanded by a brisk 57 percent, reaching a record high of 959 billion Saudi Riyals (254 billion dollars), while arts & entertainment and real service exports grew in triple-digits to the tune of 106 percent and 319 percent, respectively, reflecting the Kingdom’s transformation into a global destination for tourism and entertainment. Meanwhile, the food sector recorded 77 percent growth; transport and storage services grew 29 percent, health and education recorded growth of 10.8 percent; trade, restaurants and hotels at 7 percent, while transport and communications increased 3.7 percent.

Back in April, the IMF predicted that Middle East economies would grow at a slower pace than earlier projections due to the war in Gaza, attacks on Red Sea shipping and lower oil output add to existing challenges of high debt and borrowing costs. The IMF now expects the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economy to expand by 2.7 percent from 3.4 percent in its October regional outlook. However, that would mark 1.9 percent growth from 2023.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

Lead image (Credit: Reuters)