美国财经频道

最新一轮经济数据显示美国通胀正在缓解，可能为美联储降息和刺激经济开辟道路，原油期货周四持稳。

根据劳工部周四发布的数据，批发价格在 4 月份上涨后，5 月份意外下跌 0.2%。生产者价格报告是在周三公布的数据显示 5 月份消费者价格持平之后发布的。

本周油价上涨 4%，从上周因 OPEC+ 计划在第四季度增加产量而遭受的抛售中恢复过来。石油市场分析师普遍认为此次抛售是反应过度。

以下是今天的能源价格：

• 西德克萨斯中质原油 7 月合约：每桶 78.62 美元，上涨 12 美分。今年迄今，美国原油价格已上涨 9.8%。
• 布伦特 原油 8 月合约：每桶 82.78 美元，上涨 18 美分。今年迄今，全球基准原油价格上涨 7.5%。
• RBOB 汽油 7 月合约：每加仑 2.41 美元，上涨 0.77%。今年迄今，汽油价格上涨了 14.7%。
• 天然气 7 月合约：每千立方英尺 2.98 美元，下跌 2.10%。今年迄今，天然气价格已上涨 18.4%。

美联储周三维持联邦基金利率不变，预计今年仅降息一次，低于之前的三次。降息通常会促进经济增长并提振原油需求。今年降息次数减少可能意味着原油上涨空间减小。

美国报告石油库存意外增加 370 万桶，而分析师此前预计库存将下降。由于燃料需求依然疲软，汽油库存增加了 260 万桶。

石油经纪商 PVM 的分析师塔马斯·瓦尔加 (Tamas Varga) 在周四的一份报告中表示：“市场反应和油价的大幅上涨表明，需求上升以及随之而来的全球石油库存量下降只是时间问题，而不是是否会发生的问题。”

“但就像降低利率一样，它会比预期的来得晚，而且上升的路径也不会是一条直线，”瓦尔加说。

越来越多的分析师认为，石油市场至少会在第三季度保持紧缩状态，然后在 2025 年放松。Redburn Atlantic 分析师彼得·洛 (Peter Low) 预计，第三季度石油短缺量将达到 170 万桶/日，第四季度将达到 150 万桶/日，然后明年将转为过剩。

CNBC

Crude oil futures held steady Thursday after the latest round of economic data indicated that inflation is easing in the U.S., potentially opening a path for the Fed to cut interest rates and boost the economy.

Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in May by 0.2% after rising in April, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. The producer price report came on the back of Wednesday numbers that showed consumer prices were unchanged in May.

Oil prices have gained 4% this week, recovering from a sell-off last week on an OPEC+ plan to increase production in the fourth quarter. Oil market analysts generally viewed the sell-off as an overreaction.

Here are today’s energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate July contract: $78.62 per barrel, up 12 cents. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained 9.8%.
• Brent August contract: $82.78 per barrel, up 18 cents. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead 7.5%.
• RBOB Gasoline July contract: $2.41 per gallon, up 0.77%. Year to date, gasoline is up 14.7%.
• Natural Gas July contract: $2.98 per thousand cubic feet, down 2.10%. Year to date, gas has advanced 18.4%.

The Fed left its fed funds rate unchanged on Wednesday and penciled in just one reduction this year, down from three previously. Lower interest rates typically boost economic growth and lift crude oil demand. Fewer cuts this year potentially mean less upside for crude.

The U.S. reported a surprise oil stockpile build of 3.7 million barrels, whereas analysts had expected inventories would fall. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels as fuel demand remains soft.

“The market reaction and the respectable advance in oil prices indicates that rising demand and the subsequent fall in the volume of oil stored worldwide is the question of when and not if,” Tamas Varga, analyst at oil broker PVM, said in a Thursday note.

“But just like the lowering of interest rates, it will come later than anticipated and the path higher will not be a straight line,” Varga said.

A growing number of analysts see the oil market tightening at least through the third quarter before loosening in 2025. Peter Low, an analyst at Redburn Atlantic, sees an oil deficit of 1.7 million barrels per day, or bpd, in the third quarter and 1.5 million bpd in the fourth quarter, before becoming a surplus next year.