匹兹堡——分析公司RBN Energy总裁兼首席执行官 David Braziel 表示，阿巴拉契亚气田可以改变能源市场的游戏规则，但首先天然气需要找到一条到达世界的途径。

”S。11 月 30 日，巴西尔在 Hart Energy 举办的 DUG 阿巴拉契亚会议暨展览会上表示，天然气，尤其是阿巴拉契亚天然气，有可能改变世界。如果能够摆脱中游的束缚。这并不是理所当然的。”

从2018年到2022年，美国液化天然气出口量出现了惊人的增长，从平均每天超过2 Bcf到2022年平均超过10 Bcf/d。2023年前六个月，美国领先所有国家。根据美国能源情报署的数据，液化天然气出口量平均为 11.6 Bcf/d，高于其他国家。

Rystad Energy北美天然气市场副总裁Emily McClain 在 DUG Appalachia 的另一次演讲中表示，过去三年，俄罗斯-乌克兰战争引发了欧洲对美国液化天然气的需求激增。根据 Rystad 的预测，从 2021 年到 2022 年，欧洲进口美国液化天然气的比例从 27% 跃升至 63%，而且这些数字在短期内应该会保持不变。

然而，美国、加拿大和墨西哥液化天然气出口天然气市场的长期方向仍可能转向亚洲。麦克莱恩表示，到2035年，中国、印度和其他东亚国家将提供全球约66%的液化天然气需求。

这里真正的故事是亚洲的增长以及该地区对天然气和液化天然气的需求，这种说法并没有改变，”麦克莱恩说。“即使从 2040 年代到 2050 年，天然气和能源的需求仍将继续表现出非常坚定的需求。”

对天然气和液化天然气的需求不断增长，阿巴拉契亚地区成为人们关注的焦点。Marcellus 和 Utica 页岩无疑是美国顶级的干燥气田，平均产量略高于 30 Bcf/d，而第二大盆地——二叠纪盆地和 Eagle Ford 盆地的产量约为 25 Bcf/d。

但巴西尔表示，阿巴拉契亚的供应受到“非市场力量”的限制。

“如果他们能够在没有任何限制的情况下将更多管道运出该地区，他们的产能可以迅速提高到 40 Bcf/d。但当然，事情没那么简单。如今，国会需要采取切实行动才能将一条新管道驶出该地区。”巴西尔表示，他指的是美国国会为清除山谷管道（MVP）面临的法律障碍而采取的行动，作为预算妥协的一部分在六月。

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MVP 线路从西弗吉尼亚州延伸到弗吉尼亚州南部地区，预计将于 2024 年第一季度完工，并将提供一条从马塞勒斯河和尤蒂卡出发的约 2 Bcf/d 的通道，进一步打通大西洋中部和东南部市场。

目前，马里兰州东北部的波因特只有一个液化天然气出口终端在运营。相比之下，墨西哥湾沿岸还有另外五个液化天然气接收站项目正在建设或计划中。

巴西尔指出，还有其他几个拟议的运输项目，旨在将更多阿巴拉契亚天然气运送到美国其他地区，用于出口或国内使用。其中之一是 MVP Southgate 项目，该项目将 MVP 延伸到北卡罗来纳州。Braziel 说，该项目面临着与 MVP 停滞不前相同类型的反对。Equitrans Midstream最初于 2018 年开始构建 MVP。

麦克莱恩表示，在国内方面，对天然气的需求也应继续增长，特别是在电力生产方面。“随着燃煤[发电]设施即将退役，天然气已经能够以这种方式介入并渗透市场。”

巴西尔表示，该国应该了解马塞勒斯和尤蒂卡天然气的潜力。与其他任何地区相比，阿巴拉契亚天然气盆地的供应量可能会改变世界市场，但生产仍然面临障碍。

他说：“我们能够或有限地释放更多东北产量的能力，将在未来几年对全球能源格局产生深远影响。”

PITTSBURGH — Appalachian gas fields can be a game changer in the energy market, said David Braziel, president and CEO of analyst firm RBN Energy, but first that natural gas needs a way to reach the world.

“U.S. gas, and Appalachian gas in particular, has the potential to change the world,” Braziel said at Hart Energy’s DUG Appalachia Conference and Exhibition on Nov. 30. “Just as long as we can get that gas to market; if it can break free of midstream constraints. And that’s not a given.”

From 2018 to 2022, LNG exports from the U.S. had a monstrous growth spurt, from an average of over 2 Bcf/d to an average of more than 10 Bcf/d in 2022. In the first six months of 2023, the U.S. led all other countries in LNG exports with an 11.6 Bcf/d average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Over the past three years, the Russian-Ukraine war kicked off a surge of LNG demand in Europe for U.S. LNG, said Emily McClain, Rystad Energy vice president for North America gas markets, during a separate presentation at DUG Appalachia. From 2021 to 2022, Europe’s imports of U.S. LNG leapt to 63% from 27%, and those numbers should hold in the short term, according to Rystad’s projections.

However, the long-term direction of the U.S., Canadian and Mexican LNG export gas markets is still likely headed to Asia. By 2035, China, India and other East Asian countries will provide about 66% of the world’s LNG demand, McClain said .

The real story here is the growth in Asia and the demand for gas and LNG coming out of that region, and that narrative hasn't changed,” McClain said. “And the trajectory even through the 2040s, into 2050 will continue to show very firm needs or demand for gas and energy.”

The growing demand for gas and LNG is putting a focus on the Appalachia region. The Marcellus and Utica shales are easily the top U.S. dry gas fields, with an average production slightly over 30 Bcf/d, while the second-largest—the Permian and Eagle Ford basins—produce around 25 Bcf/d.

But Braziel said Appalachia supply has been capped — by non-market forces.

“If they could get more pipelines out of the region, in a world with no constraints, they could quickly ramp up to 40 Bcf/d. But of course, it's not that simple. It takes a literal act of Congress these days to get a new pipeline out of the region,” Braziel said, referring to the U.S. Congress’ action to clear legal hurdles facing the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) as part of a budget compromise in June.

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The MVP, which runs from West Virginia to the southern region of Virginia, is expected to be completed in first-quarter of 2024 and will provide about a 2 Bcf/d pathway from the Marcellus and Utica to further open up mid-Atlantic and Southeast markets.

Currently only one LNG export terminal operates in the northeast—Cove Point in Maryland. Along the Gulf Coast, by contrast, another five LNG terminal projects are either under construction or planned.

Braziel noted that there are several other proposed transport projects to move more Appalachian gas to other regions of the U.S., either for export or domestic usage. One is the MVP Southgate project, which would extend the MVP into North Carolina. That project is facing the same type of opposition that stalled the MVP, Braziel said. Equitrans Midstream initially began building the MVP in 2018.

On the domestic side, demand for natural gas should also continue to rise, especially in electric production, McClain said. “With coal fire [power generation] facilities undergoing retirements, gas has been able to step in and penetrate the market that way.”

Braziel said the country should understand the potential of Marcellus and Utica gas. More than any other region, the Appalachian gas basins contain a supply that could alter the world market, but hurdles continue to see that production stymied.

“The degree to which we’re able to or limited in our ability to unleash more northeast production,” he said, “is going to have a profound impact on the global energy landscape for years to come.”