自 12 月初以来，美国原油库存一直徘徊在 430 至 4.5 亿桶之间，仍比每年此时的五年平均水平高出 6% 左右。

但有迹象表明原油供应开始减少。美国页岩油生产商削减了产量，而过去四个星期美国原油进口量较去年下降了 7.5%，油轮跟踪数据显示沙特原油出货量下降。

与此同时，自今年年初以来，布伦特原油的交易价格一直在 53 美元至 62 美元之间。截至周一，布伦特原油价格约为 61.50 美元。

对原油价格跌至 40 美元或更低的担忧已经消退。市场情绪暂时转为积极。

大多数分析师预计，OPEC+减产协议最终将重新平衡供需，并为油价上涨提供支撑。沙特的目标是让原油价格回到 80 美元的区间。

但美国国会一项允许司法部起诉 OPEC+ 成员国违反反垄断行为的法案，有可能扰乱 OPEC 限制石油供应的努力。《谢尔曼反托拉斯法》对共谋的处罚是严厉的，如果《禁止石油生产和出口卡特尔法》颁布，石油价格可能会变得不稳定。

（来源：IMA）

U.S. crude inventory has been hovering between 430 and 450 million barrels since early December — and remains around 6% above the five year average for this time of year.

But there are indications that crude supply is beginning to decrease. U.S. shale producers have cut back on production, while crude imports in the U.S. over the past four weeks are down 7.5% from last year and tanker tracking data indicate a decline in Saudi crude shipments.

Meanwhile, Brent crude has traded in the range of $53 to $62 since the beginning of the year. As of Monday, Brent is trading around $61.50.

The fear of crude prices dropping into the $40s or lower has faded. Market sentiment has turned positive — for the time being.

Most analysts expect that the OPEC+ supply curtailment deal will ultimately rebalance supply and demand and provide support for higher oil prices. The Saudis are targeting getting crude prices back to the $80 range.

But a bill in the U.S. Congress to enable the Justice Department to sue OPEC+ members for antitrust violations has the potential to disrupt OPEC efforts to limit oil supply. Penalties for collusion under the Sherman Antitrust Act are draconian — and if the "No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act" law is enacted oil pricing could become volatile.

(Source: IMA)