[编者注：这个故事的一个版本出现在 《石油和天然气投资者》杂志2020 年11 月号上 。它最初于 2020 年 9 月 23 日出版。在此订阅该杂志 。]

美国的石油产量在 2019 年底达到约 1300 万桶/日的高位，但今年早些时候，冠状病毒驱动的市场崩溃导致产量急剧下降。

到 5 月底，产量已降至 10.3 MMbbl/d，这是由于广泛的减产引发的，以帮助全球市场更加接近平衡并提高油轮价格。美国非常规、海上和常规资源生产商以及世界其他主要石油和天然气生产地区都削减了产量。

挪威能源咨询公司 Rystad Energy 勘探与生产研究副总裁 Leslie Wei 表示，在那之后的几个月里，几乎所有被削减的石油产量都已恢复生产。

“值得注意的是，美国的减产幅度是所有国家中最大的，甚至高于沙特阿拉伯的减产幅度，后者减产了250万桶。”魏说。“这凸显了页岩油和市场按预期运作的灵活性，生产商能够根据油价快速减少产量。”

然而，美国的产量会再次恢复到 13 MMbbl/d 吗？

这是魏在 9 月 22 日在 Rystad 美洲年度峰会上提出的问题。一个关键的决定因素可能涉及世界其他地区发生的情况。

跟踪水力压裂

她在虚拟活动中发表讲话，解释了与 2019 年相比，6 月美国页岩油区的压裂作业数量骤降 75%，至 326 个。她表示，活动已开始恢复，7 月和 8 月分别有 400 个压裂作业。

“二叠纪盆地经历了最大的复苏，从 6 月份 101 个压裂作业的底部增加了一倍多，到 7 月和 8 月的 227 个和 246 个压裂作业，”她说。“agle Ford 也显示出持续复苏的迹象，7 月和 8 月均新增约 50 个压裂作业。另一方面，巴肯地区的水力压裂预计将回到谷底，因为一些生产商可能会在 Dakota Access 管道可能关闭后重新审视其计划。”

Rystad 预测，随着完井活动的增加以及旧设备退出市场，压裂设备的需求将在年底前上升，增幅约为 30%。今年压裂设备的利用率创下 15% 的历史新低。

Rystad 研究副总裁托马斯·雅各布 (Thomas Jacob) 根据该公司与运营商和油田服务公司的对话表示，“今年剩余时间里的活动不会出现任何意外。”

油价低于 40 美元/桶也无济于事。

“由于典型的季节性因素，即压裂假期和最终预算耗尽，我们预计第四季度的竣工活动将下降 5% 至 7%，”雅各布说。

Rystad 预计液压马力需求将在 2025 年之前恢复到 2019 年的水平。雅各布表示，“复苏之路将是缓慢而痛苦的”。

“进入2021年，需求将继续上升，年底将达到1000万只，”魏说。与此同时，机队规模将保持在1500万辆左右。因此，这意味着利用率约为三分之二。”

Jacob 说，目前美国有超过 100 支压裂船队正在运行。预计明年需求将增至 180 至 190 之间。

该细分市场仍然供应过剩。

“我们认为，即使在 WTI 类型的持续价格超过 60 美元的环境中，该行业也可以使用 250 至 300 辆船队轻松满足需求，”雅各布说。“因此，需要 350 到 400 辆车队的日子已经一去不复返了。”

展望未来

通过使用拉链压裂和同步压裂作业所获得的效率正在降低船队需求，因为运营商与油田服务公司合作，减少了非生产时间。

Jacob 表示，“资本纪律、井设计优化、服务价格通缩、效率提高和对 ESG 的关注”将塑造未来十年。“过去几个月，油田服务领域发生了很大变化，但在市场达到真正需要的水平之前，还需要进行更多变化，”他说。

再加上现有油井的基本递减率，Rystad 的展望显示，页岩气产量到 2021 年中期都会下降。

当时，魏表示，“石油价格回升应该足以看到新一波页岩油投资，产量将再次逐渐增加，全年产量约为每天 700 万桶。”

鉴于 Rystad 预测该行业将在年底前完全复苏，海上风电预计将有助于提高美国的整体产量。然而，这一提振不足以让美国在今年或 2021 年恢复到峰值产出。

此后发生的情况将取决于全球供需情况。

“短期内，即使没有页岩油，全球产量也有望恢复。但从中期来看，全球产量看起来很严峻。”魏说。“预计到 2025 年，全球产量甚至不能超过 9400 万桶。你可能会说欧佩克可以填补这一空白。但实际上，OPEC的闲置产能只有1到200万桶。因此，即使是欧佩克也无法拯救我们。”

分析师表示，将需要页岩气产量。

Wei 表示，6-11 MMbbl 需要来自尚未钻探的页岩井。分析师认为，60 美元/桶左右的油价将激励页岩油生产商加大活动力度，开启新的上行周期。

Rystad 的展望显示，2021 年第一季度 WTI 平均价格约为 40 美元/桶，明年将达到 50 美元/桶左右，到 2025 年将升至 60 美元/桶左右。

“预计投资将在 2022 年开始复苏，到本世纪中期达到每年 1,550 亿美元，”魏在转向生产之前表示。“到 2022 年，我们将看到产量再次上升，然后恢复到从之前的下滑中恢复后的 100 万桶/日增长率。因此，为了回答这个问题，我们认为到 2024 年，美国有可能达到历史新高，达到 1350 万桶/日。”

[Editor's note: A version of this story appears in the November 2020 issue of Oil and Gas Investor magazine. It was originally published Sept. 23, 2020. Subscribe to the magazine here.]

The U.S. saw its oil output hit a high of about 13 million bbl/d at the end of 2019 before the coronavirus-driven market collapse sent production into a nosedive earlier this year.

By the end of May, production had fallen to 10.3 MMbbl/d, triggered by widespread curtailments in an effort to help bring the global market closer to balance and improve tanking oil prices. U.S. producers of unconventional, offshore and conventional resources alike cut output along with other major oil- and gas-producing regions across the world.

In the months since, nearly all of the curtailed barrels have come back online, according to Leslie Wei, vice president of E&P research for the Norway-based energy consultancy Rystad Energy.

“It’s interesting to note that the production cut from the U.S. was the largest among all countries, even higher than Saudi Arabia, which cut 2.5 million barrels,” Wei said. “This highlights the flexibility of shale and the market working as intended, in which producers are able to quickly remove volumes from a mark in response to oil prices.”

However, will the United States produce ever return to 13 MMbbl/d again?

That was the question Wei posed Sept. 22 during Rystad’s Americas annual summit. A crucial determining factor could involve what happens in other parts of the world.

Tracking Fracking

Speaking during the virtual event, she explained how the number of frac jobs in U.S. shale plays plummeted by 75% to 326 in June, compared to 2019. Activity has started to return, with 400 frac jobs in July and again in August, she said.

“The Permian Basin experienced the largest recovery, more than doubling from the bottom of 101 frac jobs in June to 227 and 246 frac jobs in July and August,” she said. “Eagle Ford also shows signs of sustained recovery with about 50 new frac jobs in both July and August. On the other hand, fracking in the Bakken region is expected to return to the bottom as some producers are likely to revisit their plans after the potential shutdown of the Dakota Access pipeline.”

Rystad forecasts demand for frac equipment, which saw utilization hit record lows of 15% this year, will rise toward the end of the year—exiting at about 30%—as completion activity picks up and older equipment leaves the market.

“There won’t be any surprises in activity for the remainder of the year,” Thomas Jacob, vice president of research for Rystad, said based on conversations the firm has had with operators and oilfield service companies.

Oil prices below $40/bbl don’t help.

“We are expecting a 5% to 7% percent decline in completions activity in the fourth quarter due to the typical seasonality that you see frac holidays and end budget exhaustion,” Jacob said.

Rystad doesn’t expect hydraulic horsepower demand to recover to 2019 levels until 2025. “The road to recovery will be slow and painful,” according to Jacob.

“Moving into 2021, demand will continue to go up, hitting 10 million at the end of the year,” Wei said. “At the same time, the fleet size will remain constant at around 15 million. Therefore, implying a utilization rate of about two-thirds.”

Currently, just over 100 frac fleets are working in the U.S., Jacob said. Demand is expected to rise to between 180 and 190 next year.

The segment remains oversupplied.

“We think the industry will easily be able to meet demand using 250 to 300 fleet, even in a sustained $60-plus WTI-type environment,” Jacob said. “So, the days of requiring 350 to 400 fleets are pretty much done.”

Looking Ahead

Efficiency gained through the use of zipper fracs and simul-frac operations are driving down fleet demand as operators, working with oilfield service companies, cut nonproductive time.

“Capital discipline, well design optimization, service price deflation, efficiency improvements and a focus on ESG” will shape the decade ahead, according to Jacob. “The oilfield service segment has changed quite a lot in the last few months but it needs to change a lot more before the market can get to where it really needs to be,” he said.

Add base decline rates of existing wells to the mix, Rystad’s outlook shows production from shale plays dropping until mid-2021.

At that time, Wei said an “oil price recovery should be sufficient to see a new wave of investments in shale and production will gradually increase again and exit the year around 7 million barrels per day.”

Offshore is expected to help lift overall production for the U.S., given Rystad forecasts the sector will fully recover by the year’s end. Yet, the boost won’t be enough for the U.S. to recover to its peak output this year or in 2021.

What happens after that will depend on what happens globally in terms of supply and demand.

“In the short term, global production is expected to recover even without shale. But in the medium term, global production looks grim,” Wei said. “We see that in 2025 global production cannot exceed even 94 million barrels. You might argue that OPEC could fill this gap. But in reality, OPEC’s spare capacity is only one to 2 million barrels. So even OPEC can’t save us.”

Shale volumes will be needed, the analysts said.

Wei said between 6-11 MMbbl will need to come from shale wells not yet drilled. Analysts believe an oil price around $60/bbl would incentivize shale players to ramp up activity, commencing a new upcycle.

Rystad’s outlook shows WTI averaging about $40/bbl in first-quarter 2021, exiting next year around $50/bbl and rising to the to mid-$60s/bbl by 2025.

“We expect to see investments start to recover in 2022 before reaching $155 billion U.S. dollars per year by the middle of the decade,” Wei said before turning to production. “In 2022, we’ll see an uptake in production again before returning to the 1 million barrels per day growth rate that we saw after the recovery from the previous downfall. So to answer the question, we believe by 2024 for the U.S. has a possibility to reach new all-time highs and hit 13.5 million barrels per day.”