自 2017 年以来，范围 1 和范围 2 上游排放强度已下降 12%。然而，根据 Wood Mackenzie 的一份新报告，由于产量增长，绝对排放量可能会趋于稳定。

在报告中，“上游石油和天然气实现脱碳？”Wood Mackenzie 发现，虽然火炬减少、甲烷检测和修复、电气化和 CCUS 已经降低了排放强度，但排放量的增加正在增加一些地区的绝对排放量。包括石油和天然气价值链的其他组成部分在内，到 2028 年，绝对排放量可能会超过大流行前的水平。

Wood Mackenzie 首席分析师 Adam Pollard 表示：“燃烧、甲烷和排放举措表明可以取得进展，但努力需要超越唾手可得的目标。” “例如，每天仍有超过 10 bcf 的天然气被燃烧。上游总体排放量仍然与生产存在内在联系。燃烧排放仍然是最大的排放源，但减排进展有限。电气化可以大幅减少排放，但前提是可以使用低碳能源。”

在净零承诺以及不断加强的监管和碳税的推动下，各大石油公司和国际石油公司 (IOC) 在改善排放强度方面发挥了带头作用。然而，波拉德先生表示，国家石油公司 (NOC) 的排放量占上游排放量的 51%，而且并非所有国家石油公司都效仿了国际石油公司的做法。

超级排放国也发挥着重要作用，上游行业一半的排放量来自 165 个油气田。该类别包括持续火炬、中东巨型油田、油砂项目和综合液化天然气。

“展望未来，新开发项目的排放量将低于行业平均水平，公司将利用并购作为杠杆，最大限度地提高其投资组合中优势桶的比例，”波拉德先生补充道。 “然而，许多公司和政府还需要迎头赶上。加大排放力度首先要设定目标、制定脱碳战略、加入现有的脱碳举措，并向已经踏上征途的石油巨头、国际石油公司和国家石油公司学习。”

Scope 1 and 2 upstream emissions intensity has declined 12% since 2017. However, absolute emissions could plateau due to production growth, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie.

In the report, “Is upstream oil & gas delivering on decarbonization?” Wood Mackenzie finds that while flaring reduction, methane detection and repair, electrification and CCUS have put a dent in emissions intensity, higher volumes are increasing absolute emissions in some regions. Including the other components of the oil and gas value chain, absolute emissions could exceed pre-pandemic levels by 2028.

“Flaring, methane and venting initiatives show that progress can be made, but efforts need to move beyond the low-hanging fruit,” said Adam Pollard, principal analyst with Wood Mackenzie. “For example, over 10 bcf of gas is still flared daily. Overall upstream emissions remain intrinsically linked to production. Combustion emissions remain the largest sources, but progress on abatement has been limited. Electrification can deliver big reductions but only where low carbon power is available.”

Majors and International Oil Companies (IOCs) have led the way on emissions intensity improvements, driven by net zero commitments and increasing regulations and carbon taxes. However, National Oil Companies (NOCs) account for 51% of upstream emissions and not all have followed the IOCs lead, according to Mr Pollard.

Superemitters play a significant role as well, with half of the upstream sector’s emissions coming from just 165 oil and gas fields. This category includes persistent flares, giant Middle East fields, oil sands projects and integrated LNG.

“Moving forward, new developments will have lower than average industry emissions and companies will use M&A as a lever to maximize the proportion of advantaged barrels in their portfolio,” added Mr Pollard. “However, many companies and governments have catching up to do. Ramping up efforts on emissions starts with setting targets, developing decarbonization strategies, joining existing decarbonization initiatives and learning from the Majors, IOCs and NOCs that are already on the journey.”