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伦敦——Wood Mackenzie 预计今年上游石油和天然气最终投资决策 (FID) 将小幅增加，可能承诺开发 27 Bboe 资源的金额将高达 1,850 亿美元。

“实现石油和天然气项目的 FID 比以前更难，但由于 2022 年获得的制裁数量比预期少，我们相信今年的活动将略有增加，40 个最可行的项目中可能有 30 多个项目为了实现这一里程碑，”Wood Mackenzie 副总裁兼上游分析主管弗雷泽·麦凯 (Fraser McKay) 表示。  “大多数运营商将继续遵守纪律，碳减排仍将是许多 FID 项目的关键部分。”

国家石油公司可能会控制规模更大的新投资，这些投资针对已发现的资源，到 2023 年平均开发成本为 7 美元/桶油当量。

麦凯补充道：“国际石油公司将主要关注成本较高但回报较高的深水开发。” 他们将敏锐地意识到石油和天然气项目制裁在公共领域的表现以及对这些项目的审查。它们的相关排放量将受到影响。”

今年的项目平均需要 49 美元/桶原油才能实现 15% 的盈亏平衡内部收益率 (IRR)。该顾问表示，加权平均 IRR 为 19%，即 60 美元/桶，将是 2018 年以来的最低水平，今年项目的平均投资回收期为 9 年。

 上游研究首席分析师格雷格·罗迪克表示，“短周期和小型海上项目在投资回收期和回报方面都将表现出色。” “就内部收益率而言，长寿命液化天然气项目会受到影响，但其有吸引力且稳定的未来现金流将具有战略重要性......

“优势深水石油和大陆架项目在排放方面表现将优于其他项目，但液化天然气、酸性天然气和一些陆上项目需要采取缓解措施。”

2023年13月4日

Offshore staff

LONDON – Wood Mackenzie expects a small increase in upstream oil and gas final investment decisions (FID) this year, with up to $185 billion potentially committed to developing 27 Bboe of resources.

“Achieving FID on oil and gas projects is harder than it used to be, but with fewer sanctioned in 2022 than was expected, we believe we will see a slight uptick in activity this year, with over 30 of the 40 most viable projects likely to reach this milestone,” said Fraser McKay, vice president, head of upstream analysis for Wood Mackenzie. “Most operators will remain disciplined, and carbon mitigation will remain a key part of many FID projects.”

National oil companies will likely control the larger new investments, directed at discovered resources with an average development cost of $7/boe in 2023.

“International oil companies will be focusing largely on higher cost but higher-return deepwater developments,” McKay added. “All will be acutely aware of how oil and gas project sanctions are playing out in the public domain and the scrutiny to which their associated emissions will be subject.”

Projects this year will require on average $49/bbl crude to deliver a breakeven 15% internal rate of return (IRR). A weighted average IRR of 19%, at $60/bbl, would be the lowest since 2018, the consultant suggested, with an average payback for this year’s projects at nine years.

 “Short-cycle and small-scale offshore projects will out-perform in terms of both paybacks and returns,” said Greg Roddick, principal analyst of upstream research. “Long-life LNG projects are compromised when it comes to IRRs, but their attractive and stable future cash flows will be strategically important...

“Advantaged deepwater oil and shelf projects will outperform on emissions, but LNG, sour gas and some onshore projects require mitigation measures.”

04.13.2023