石油价格

高盛预计， 布伦特原油价格底线 为每桶 75 美元，由于目前对美国经济衰退的宏观经济担忧，这一价格不太可能被突破。

受上周五美国公布的就业数据弱于预期的拖累，油价过去几天暴跌6%，并引发全球股市以及包括原油在内的风险资产大幅下跌。

周二早盘， 布伦特原油 价格截至美国东部时间上午 8:37，当日下跌 0.43% 至 75.96 美元，此前周五和周一连续两天下跌。

对经济衰退的担忧引发了投资者的退出，并加剧了人们对中国石油需求疲软的预期，从而对石油期货造成压力。

不过，高盛表示，经济衰退风险仍然有限，西方和印度的需求依然强劲，交易商的投机仓位非常低。所有这些因素都支持该投行认为油价将在未来几周获得支撑的观点。

高盛分析师在周一发布的一份报告中写道：“尽管美国7月份就业报告疲软导致经济衰退风险上升，以及金融状况波动对石油需求的影响，进一步加大了布伦特原油价格跌至75-90美元区间的风险，尤其是在2025年，但我们的基本预测仍然是油价将在未来几周获得支撑 。  ”

高盛  今年早些时候对布伦特原油价格的预测范围为 75-90 美元。

 盛宝银行分析师在周二早些时候的一份报告中写道：“原油价格触及 75 美元的底部，随后反弹，主要关注地缘政治发展和 OPEC+ 对最新下跌的反应。” 

ING 大宗商品策略师 Warren Patterson 和 Ewa Manthey 表示，“投资者近几周纷纷退出大宗商品市场，仓位数据突显了这一点，而且这种趋势在最近几天也持续下去。”

他们在周二的一份报告中写道： “CE 数据显示，自 6 月中旬以来，ICE 布伦特原油期货的总未平仓合约已下降逾 8%。尽管原油基本面仍看似具有支撑作用，但投机兴趣却出现下降  。 ”

作者：Charles Kennedy，Oilprice.com

主图（来源：路透社）

Oil Price

Goldman Sachs expects a $75 per barrel floor under Brent Crude prices that is unlikely to be breached due to the current macroeconomic fears of a U.S. recession.

Oil prices slumped by 6% in the past few days, dragged down by weaker-than-expected jobs data in the U.S. on Friday, which sparked a massive selloff in equity markets globally and in risk assets, including crude oil.

Early on Tuesday, Brent Crude prices were down by 0.43% on the day to $75.96 as of 8:37 a.m. EDT, following two consecutive daily declines on Friday and Monday.

Recession fears triggered an exit and added to perceived weak Chinese oil demand to weigh on the petroleum futures.

However, Goldman Sachs says that the recession risk is still limited, demand in the West and India remains strong, and the speculative positioning of traders is very low. All these factors support the investment bank’s view that oil will find support in the coming weeks.

“While the increase in recession risk following the weak U.S. July employment report and the impact of volatile financial conditions on oil demand further skew the risks to our $75-90 range for Brent prices to the downside, especially in 2025, our base case remains that oil prices will find support in coming weeks,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note dated Monday.

Goldman put out a $75-$90 range to its Brent forecast earlier this year.

“Brent crude touched its USD 75 floor before bouncing back with focus on geopolitical developments and OPEC+ response to the latest drop,” Saxo Bank analysts wrote in a note early on Tuesday.

According to ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey “Investors have been exiting commodities in recent weeks, highlighted in positioning data and this has continued in recent days.”

“ICE data shows that aggregated open interest in ICE Brent has fallen by more than 8% since mid-June. This souring in speculative appetite comes despite oil fundamentals still looking supportive,” they wrote in a Tuesday note.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

Lead image (Credit: Reuters)