Oil and gas operators in the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM) began evacuating personnel and shutting in production ahead of the predicted arrival of Hurricane Rafael—a Category 2 storm with winds topping out at 100 mph. As of 9 a.m. (CST) 8 November, the system is in the southeastern GOM and is tracking west-northwest at around 9 mph. A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so. After that, Rafael is likely to meander over the central GOM through early next week, according to the US National Hurricane Center.
The US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) activated its Hurricane Response Team to work with offshore operators and other state and federal agencies until operations return to normal and the hurricane is no longer a threat to Gulf of Mexico oil and gas activities.
From operator reports, BSEE estimates that 22% (391,214 B/D) of current oil production and nearly 10% (181 MMcf/D) of the current natural gas production in the GOM has been shut in. The shut-in production figures are estimates, which BSEE compares to historical production reports.
Based on data from offshore operator reports submitted as of 11:30 a.m. on 7 November, personnel have been evacuated from a total of 17 production platforms, approximately 5% of the 371 manned platforms.
“In preparation for Hurricane Rafael, we are shutting in production at our Chevron-operated Gulf of Mexico facilities and are transporting all associated personnel to shore,” said Chevron spokesperson Paula Beasley via email. “At our onshore facilities, we are following our storm preparedness procedures and paying close attention to the forecast and track of the system. Chevron will continue to closely monitor the storm. We remain focused on the safety of our workforce, the integrity of our facilities and the protection of the environment.”
Both Shell and BP also confirmed they had begun moving personnel from some of their deepwater assets ahead of the storm.
According to BSSE, personnel have also been evacuated from one nondynamically positioned rig, equivalent to 17% of the six rigs of this type currently operating in the Gulf. Five dynamically positioned (DP) rigs have moved off location out of the hurricane’s path as a precaution. This number represents 24% of the 21 DP rigs currently operating in the GOM. Personnel remain on board and return to the original location once the hurricane has passed.
Rafael is the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted there to be as many as 25 named storms this season—well above the historic average. An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, with seven of them reaching hurricane strength and three spinning into major hurricanes—a Category 3 or higher.
