海底服务市场（包括流量保证服务、ROV 钻探支持以及检查、维护和修理 (IMR)）今年的支出预计将超过 70 亿美元。与去年相比增长了 20% 以上，这主要是由于美洲和欧洲棕地活动的增加所致。 

海底市场健康状况的一个主要指标是海底树木奖励和安装活动，以及跟踪树木在其生命周期内的健康状况以获得关键结论。海底生产系统 (SPS) 包含安装在水下的对故障最敏感的设备，并通过更换控制模块进行预防性维护。检查对于监控设备状态至关重要，大多数 IMR 工作都属于此类。然而，主要支出发生在需要维修时，尽管维修只占活动的一小部分。 

海底脐带管、立管和出油管 (SURF) 市场是最大的海底市场，自然受到 IMR 需求的影响。立管和自由悬挂的脐带缆承受极端的动态载荷，并且经常通过从上部进行的环空监测以及通过使用 ROV、AUV 或潜水员进行目视检查其完整性。流线和刚性干线放置在静态环境中。检查清管器、ROV 或 AUV 对管线进行检查，因为未经处理的井流会使管道更容易腐蚀。因此，管道需要对流量保证问题进行常规评估，例如打蜡。检查通常占管道 IMR 活动的 70% 到 90%。

海底设备通常遵循 IMR 活动可能性的浴盆曲线：在最初几年，监控任何初始故障至关重要；中期是稳健经营；当设备接近其设计寿命（通常为 20 至 30 年）时，需要进行更定期的检查。虽然年龄不会增加 IMR 强度，但设备年龄可能是测量旧海底设备完整性的市场需求的良好指标。 

安哥拉和尼日利亚在上个十年初期出现了一波海底采油树安装浪潮，未来几年将突破十年大关，可能会增加该地区对 IMR 服务的需求。到 2027 年，非洲将拥有约 1,200 棵成熟（树龄 10 年或以上）海底树木，比该地区今年的数量增加 20%，到 2027 年，非洲大陆将占全球此类成熟树木的 40% 左右。 欧洲也将成为海底 IMR 市场的热点，因为该地区拥有今年运营的所有成熟海底采油树的四分之一。 

从这些成熟的海底树木目前发挥作用的水深来看，几乎 74% 的树木位于 125 m 至 1,500 m 的水深之间。该水深范围内的树木有 47% 位于安哥拉和尼日利亚，目前在 Dalia、Pazflor、Girassol 和 Bonga 等项目中投入使用。非洲海底服务支出预计未来几年将保持在每年 8 亿美元以上，过去六到七年每年保持在 5 亿至 6 亿美元之间。 

在欧洲，目前运营的成熟海底树中近 60% 位于 125 m 至 1,500 m 水深，尤其是 Troll Oil、Aasgard 和 Gullfaks South 等项目，这些项目均位于挪威。其余成熟的海底树木目前活跃在水深 125 m 或以下的项目中。
巴西有望在超过 1,500 m 的水深中拥有最成熟的树木，其 Roncador 项目于 1999 年开始生产，而 Tupi 项目的第一个油田于 2009 年上线。

过去五年，全球海底服务市场平均每年支出约 50 亿美元，我们预计未来五年可能会增加到每年 70 亿美元以上。从 ROV 钻井支持、IMR 服务、流量保证服务等方面的海底服务支出来看，未来五年欧洲的支出可能超过 70 亿美元，其中包括受管道新发展推动的 IMR 服务和 ROV 钻井支持地区。其次是北美和南美，随着新开发的进行，这两个地区的支出合计可能超过 100 亿美元，这也受到一系列海底服务的推动。与此同时，非洲在此期间的收入可能略高于 50 亿美元，但我们预计其中大部分将用于 IMR 服务。 

Abhinav Parashar 是 Rystad Energy 能源服务研究高级分析师。

The subsea services market – with its flow assurance services, ROV drill support and inspection, maintenance and repair (IMR) – is set to top $7 billion in spending this year. That represents more than a 20% increase compared to last year, driven largely by increased brownfield activity in the Americas and Europe. 

A major indicator of the health of the subsea market is subsea tree award and installation activity, as well as tracking the health of trees over their lifetime for key takeaways. A subsea production system (SPS) contains the most failure-sensitive equipment installed underwater and is subject to preventive maintenance through the replacement of control modules. Inspection is critical to monitor the state of the equipment, with most IMR work falling under this category. The major expenditure occurs, however, when repair is needed, even though repair accounts for a relatively small portion of activity. 

The subsea umbilical, riser and flowline (SURF) market is the largest subsea market and is naturally subject to IMR needs. Risers and free-hanging umbilicals are subject to extreme dynamic loads and are frequently checked for integrity, both through annulus monitoring from the topsides and visually through the use of ROVs, AUVs or divers. Flowlines and rigid trunklines are placed in static environments. Inspection pigs, ROVs or AUVs inspect the lines because the unprocessed well stream can make pipes more prone to corrosion. As such, pipelines require routine assessment for flow assurance issues, such as waxing. Inspection typically makes up between 70% and 90% of IMR activity for pipelines.

Subsea equipment usually follows a bathtub curve for the likelihood of IMR activities: During the first years, it is crucial to monitor for any initial failure; the middle years are characterized by steady operations; and more regular inspection is required as equipment nears the end of its design life, usually 20 to 30 years. Although it is not a given that age increases IMR intensity, equipment age could be a good indicator of market demand for surveying the integrity of old subsea equipment. 

Angola and Nigeria saw a wave of subsea tree installations at the beginning of the previous decade that will pass the 10-year mark in the coming years, potentially increasing the regional demand for IMR services. Africa will have around 1,200 matured (aged 10 years or older) subsea trees in 2027, a 20% increase from what the region will have this year, and the continent will account for around 40% of such matured trees operating globally in 2027. Europe will also be a hot spot for the subsea IMR market as the region holds a quarter of all matured subsea trees operating this year. 

Looking at the water depth at which these matured subsea trees are currently functioning, almost 74% of them are in water depths between 125 m and 1,500 m. 47% of trees in that range of water depth are in Angola and Nigeria, currently operational at projects such as Dalia, Pazflor, Girassol and Bonga. Estimated expenditure on subsea services in Africa is expected to remain at over $800 million per annum in the coming years, having stayed between $500 million to $600 million per annum for the last six to seven years. 

In Europe, almost 60% of currently operational matured subsea trees are in water depths of 125 m to 1,500 m, notably at projects such as Troll Oil, Aasgard and Gullfaks South, all of which are in Norway. The remainder of mature subsea trees are currently active in projects located in water depths of 125 m or less.
Brazil is expected to have the most matured trees in water depths exceeding 1,500 m, with its Roncador project that started production in 1999, and Tupi, where the project’s first field came online in 2009.

The global subsea service market has seen around $5 billion spent annually on average over the last five years, which we expect could increase to just over $7 billion a year in the coming five years. Looking at the subsea services expenditures for ROV drill support, IMR services, flow assurance services and others, Europe could see above $7 billion of expenditure in the coming five years, including IMR services and ROV drill support driven by new developments in the pipeline in the region. This will be followed by North America and South America, which together could see over $10 billion of expenditure, also driven by a range of subsea services as new developments are under way. Africa, meanwhile, could see just above $5 billion in that period, but we expect most of it will be for IMR services. 

Abhinav Parashar is a senior analyst for energy service research at Rystad Energy.