二叠纪电气化面临问题:系统冲击力不足

二叠纪盆地的生产商可能需要等待数年才能看到德克萨斯州的公用事业公司扩大电网。

Grand Slam 中央交付点是 BPX 在二叠纪盆地的电力网络的一部分。该公司已将二叠纪盆地约 95% 的运营油井通电,而 2018 年这一比例仅为 4%。(来源:BPX)

自 2020 年以来,许多二叠纪盆地运营商已公开承诺减少排放,其中现场设备电气化是首要任务。

同年,联合国发起“奔向零排放”运动,鼓励企业和国家承诺到 2050 年实现零排放运营。

英国石油公司高管做出了净零排放承诺,称公司将消除石油和天然气生产过程中的所有温室气体 (GHG) 排放,并将运营过程中的甲烷强度降低 50%。埃克森美孚雪佛龙也做出了类似的承诺。

自那时起,流域内许多能源行业的从业者都面临着电动汽车车主的噩梦:如果没有地方充电会发生什么?

电气化是减少温室气体排放的关键因素。无论是在生产现场、泵站还是加工厂,运营商都可以取代通常用于驱动运营的柴油或燃气发动机。

德克萨斯州西部和新墨西哥州南部是该大陆人口最稀少的地区之一,该州的公用事业公司建造的电网只是为了处理较小的负荷。

然而,钻探和运输石油是一项能源密集型业务。大型钻机可能需要 3,000 马力才能运行。单个生产油田的电力需求高达数百兆瓦 (MW)。原油管道泵站每天可消耗 15 兆瓦电力。

在全国范围内整体电力需求不断增加的同时,二叠纪盆地的电力公司也已开始增加供电量,尽管预计追赶这一水平还需要数年时间。

9 月,二叠纪盆地石油协会 (PBPA) 在董事会会议上讨论了这个问题。PBPA 执行副总裁 Stephen Robertson 在接受当地电视台采访时表示,电力供应是该地区石油和天然气行业最大的担忧。

“如果你看看西德克萨斯州,你会发现德克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会 (ERCOT) 电网的电力输送严重不足,这不仅对家庭和企业用电价格产生重大影响,而且对石油和天然气行业的用电价格也产生重大影响,”罗伯逊说。

现场灯光

RPower 是一家总部位于休斯顿的电力公司,专门在操作员等待公用设施插入时提供现场电力作为备用、主要或桥接电源。

能源销售高级副总裁 Ryan Rudnitzki 表示,该公司在西德克萨斯州一直很忙。2022 年《通货膨胀削减法案》对甲烷排放征税,二叠纪盆地的电气化进程由此拉开序幕。能源站点的大部分设备(钻井、天然气处理和管道泵站)都由化石燃料驱动。

“问题是,很多这些地点都在非常偏远的地区,很难获得电网电力,而这正是我们要努力的方向,”鲁德尼茨基说。

根据德克萨斯州公共事业委员会 2022 年的一份报告,二叠纪盆地的许多石油和天然气作业需要等待两年才能接入电网。鲁德尼茨基说,一些客户现在要等待两倍的时间。

天然气处理厂的常见建设工期约为18个月。

他说:“经常听到(天然气处理)客户说,电力公司或输电公司告诉他们,可能需要三到四年甚至更长时间,具体取决于位置和该地区的拥堵程度。” 

电网插件短缺已影响到该流域内一些最大的参与者。北美最大的中游公司之一Enbridge证实,该地区受到了延误的影响。

发言人迈克尔·巴恩斯 (Michael Barnes) 对《石油和天然气投资者》表示:“鉴于 Enbridge 广泛的运输管道和出口资产,以及对德克萨斯州和美国墨西哥湾沿岸新增长的持续兴趣,我们始终对电网的可靠性和连通性保持警惕。”

“到目前为止,我们的一些项目和设施已经受到了电力供应和二叠纪地区电网接入请求时间延长的影响。盆地某些地点的可靠性问题也对我们造成了影响,”他说道。

该公司表示,电力基础设施是中游系统的关键组成部分,在二叠纪盆地持续快速增长的背景下,电力基础设施将发挥重要作用。

“我们评估了新基础设施的所有风险,电力需求是我们长期规划的一部分,”巴恩斯说。“我们正在与合作伙伴和供应商就连通性进行合作,但我们认识到电网的需求持续增长,当前的限制可能会影响一些时间表和项目。”

运营商拥有与现场发电相同的一些选择:传统的柴油发电机。

RPower 采取了不同的方法,通常运营以天然气为动力的长期发电设施,这些设施可以自行为场地供电,并在电网连接可用后为未来的停电提供备用电源。该公司还可以将电力出售给 ERCOT 等非管制电网,与客户分享收入。

仪表背后的庞然大物

德克萨斯州石油和天然气协会(TXOGA)首席经济学家迪安·福尔曼说,每个发电厂做出的决策加起来就形成了庞大的自制电力供应。

标普全球 2022 年的一项研究显示,二叠纪盆地运营商自产电力是电网发电量的两倍多。如今,这一比例大致相同,运营商自产电力约为 12 吉瓦。1 吉瓦足以为大约 75 万户家庭供电。

“很多都是临时解决方案,在电表后面安装柴油发电机,”福尔曼说。“这些设备本来打算一直使用到 ERCOT 能够在该地区扩大发电和输电,而几个月变成了几个季度,几个季度变成了几年。”

福尔曼表示,从历史上看,ERCOT 一直能够跟上增长需求。ERCOT 负责二叠纪盆地的德克萨斯州部分;西南电力联盟 (SPP) 负责新墨西哥州。然而,随着该盆地的产量在 2018 年跃升,公用事业开始落后。

自 2010 年以来,美国整体电力消耗一直持平。得益于页岩气的快速发展,二叠纪盆地逆势而上。标普全球指出,到 2022 年,电力负荷需求与可用电网电力之间的差距将达到 8.3 吉瓦。

同年,国会通过了《降低通货膨胀法案》,将电气化列为优先事项。标普报告称,随着用户寻求满足新的温室气体目标,电网需求立即上升了 50%。 

8 月份,ERCOT 的远西德克萨斯地区(包括二叠纪盆地)的峰值负荷较 2023 年上升了 20%,达到 7.94 吉瓦。福尔曼表示,预计总需求将是可用负荷的两倍多。

更高的电压

德克萨斯州和新墨西哥州的公用事业单位正在加班加点地赶上进度。

“我们现在看到,在过去的一年里,负荷增长确实在加速。”福尔曼说,“这说明石油和天然气正在摆脱那些临时解决方案,并随着更多可用资源的出现而重新回到电网。”

该盆地已见证了数个电气化成功案例。BPX Energy在 2023 年初报告称,成功接入电网使该公司将 BPX Permian 资产的燃烧率从 16% 降至不到 1%。BPX 正在花费约 14 亿美元的基础设施成本来更新其生产,使其几乎完全电气化。

新墨西哥州的能源行业和电力供应商都提出了计划,允许其他公司复制 BPX 的成功。

在新墨西哥州,SPP 批准了一项 77 亿美元的输电计划,以应对该机构所称的电网“代际挑战”。项目清单中包括一条 765 千伏的输电线,将该州东南部与德克萨斯州狭长地带的现有基础设施连接起来,以应对“新墨西哥州独特的急剧负荷增长”。

去年,德克萨斯州立法机构批准了众议院第 5066 号法案,以研究这一问题。9 月,德克萨斯州公共事业委员会 (PUC) 通过了一项区域电力可靠性计划,预计未来 13 年将耗资 138 亿美元。

ERCOT 将指导该地区新建和升级输电线路,以便从该州其他地区引入电力。此次建设将努力满足该地区到 2038 年的需求,届时 PUC 预计该地区将需要额外的 26 GW 电力。

虽然石油和天然气是电网扩建的主要驱动力,但根据该计划,委员会也考虑到了人工智能数据中心和加密货币运营日益增长的需求。

德克萨斯州电力供应协会主席托德·斯台普斯 (Todd Staples) 10 月份表示,他希望公众能够理解向二叠纪盆地输送更多电力的迫切需要。

斯台普斯说:“很多时候,人们听到的都是推测,以及可能发生的事情;一种‘如果你建好了,他们就会来’之类的话。”然而,就二叠纪石油和天然气行业而言,“他们就在这里。”

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Electrification of Permian Faces a Problem: Not Enough Shock for the System

Permian Basin producers may have to wait years for Texas utilities to grow the grid.

The Grand Slam central delivery point is part of BPX’s electrical network in the Permian. The company has electrified about 95% of its operated wells in the Permian, up from just 4% in 2018. (Source: BPX)

Since 2020, a lot of Permian Basin operators have made public commitments to reduce emissions, with electrification of field equipment a top priority.

That year, the United Nations Race to Zero campaign launched, encouraging companies and countries to pledge to make their operations neutral by 2050.

BP executives made a net-zero pledge, saying the company would eliminate all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from its oil and gas production and reduce the methane intensity of operations by 50%. Exxon Mobil and Chevron followed suit with similar pledges.

Since then, many in the basin’s energy industry have faced the electric vehicle owner’s nightmare: What happens if there’s no place to plug in?

Electrification is a key factor in reducing GHG emissions. Operators sub out the diesel or gas-powered engines that typically drive operations, whether at a production site, a pump station or a processing facility.

Far West Texas and southern New Mexico are among the most sparsely populated areas on the continent, and the states’ utilities built the electric grid to handle a smaller load.

Drilling for and transporting oil, however, is an energy-intensive business. A large rig may need 3,000 hp to operate. Power demands for a single production field run into the hundreds of megawatts (MW). A crude pipeline pump station can consume 15 MW a day.

While overall power demand is ramping up nationwide, the Permian’s electric utilities have started to ramp up their supply as well—though catching up is expected to take years.

In September, the Permian Basin Petroleum Association (PBPA) discussed the issue at a board meeting. Access to electricity is the biggest concern for the oil and gas industry in the area, Stephen Robertson, PBPA executive vice president, said in a local television interview.

“If you look at West Texas, we are greatly underserved by the ERCOT [Electric Reliability Council of Texas] grid with electricity delivery and where that impacts greatly is not just prices for people buying electricity for homes and for businesses, but specifically out in the oil and gas industry,” Robertson said.

Light at the site

RPower is a Houston-based power company specializing in providing on-site electricity as a back-up, prime or bridge power while the operator waits for a utility plug-in.

The company has been busy in West Texas, said Ryan Rudnitzki, senior vice president of sales for energy. The electrification of the Permian kicked into high gear with the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which instituted taxes on methane emissions. Much of the equipment at energy sites—drilling, gas processing and pipeline pump stations—has been powered by fossil fuels.

“The kicker is, a lot of these locations are in very remote areas and it’s hard to get grid power to them, and that’s where we step up,” Rudnitzki said.

Many oil and gas operations in the Permian faced a two-year wait for a connection to an electrical grid, according to a 2022 report from the Texas Public Utilities Commission. Rudnitzki says some clients now face twice the wait.

A common construction timeline for a gas processing plant can be about 18 months.

“It’s very common to hear (gas processing) customers say that the power company or the transmission company is telling them it might be three to four years or longer, depending on the location and how much congestion there is in the area,” he said. 

The shortage of grid plug-ins has affected some of the largest players in the basin. Enbridge, one of North America’s largest midstream companies, confirmed that the region has been affected by the delays.

“Given Enbridge’s extensive transportation pipeline and export assets, as well as continued interest in new growth across Texas and the U.S. Gulf Coast, we are always vigilant about the reliability and connectivity to the grid,” spokesman Michael Barnes told Oil and Gas Investor.

“To date, some of our projects and facilities have been impacted by power availability and increased timelines for requests to connect to the electrical grid in the Permian. We have also been impacted by reliability issues at certain locations in the basin,” he said.

The company said that electrical infrastructure is a crucial part of a midstream system and will be needed especially as the Permian continues to grow at a frenetic pace.

“As we assess all risks for new infrastructure, electrical power need is part of our long-term planning,” Barnes said. “We are working with our partners and providers on connectivity but recognize that demands on the grid continue to grow, and that current constraints could likely impact some timelines and projects.”

Operators have some of the same options as they’ve always had with on-site generation: traditionally diesel-powered generators.

RPower has taken a different approach and operates typically gas-powered, long-term generation facilities that can electrify a site on its own and provide backup in future power outages after the grid connection is available. The company can also sell power to deregulated grids like ERCOT, splitting revenues with the customer.

The Behemoth Behind the Meter

The decisions made at each power plant add up to a massive homemade power supply, said Dean Foreman, chief economist with the Texas Oil and Gas Association (TXOGA).

Permian Basin operators were self-producing more than twice the electricity than they were getting from the grid, according to an S&P Global study in 2022. Today, the ratio is about the same, with operators producing about 12 GW on their own. One GW is enough to power about 750,000 homes.

“A lot of these were temporary solutions, diesel generators behind the meter,” Foreman said. “They were meant to be put in place until ERCOT could expand both generation and transmission within the region, and months have become quarters, quarters have become years.”

Historically, ERCOT has been able to keep pace with the demand for growth, Foreman said. ERCOT is responsible for the Texas part of the Permian; the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) oversees New Mexico. However, once the basin’s production jumped in 2018, utilities started falling behind.

Overall U.S. consumption of electricity had been flat since 2010. The Permian Basin, thanks to the rapid development of the shale plays, bucked the trend. By 2022, S&P Global noted an 8.3-GW gap between the electric load demand and available grid power.

Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act the same year, making electrification a priority. As users sought to meet the new GHG targets, the demand on the grid immediately rose by 50%, S&P reported. 

In August, ERCOT’s Far West Texas region, which includes the Permian, saw its peak load rise by 20% from 2023, hitting 7.94 GW. Total demand is estimated to be more than double the available load, Foreman said.

Higher voltage

The utilities in Texas and New Mexico are working overtime to catch up.

“We’re seeing now, in the last year, load growth really ramping up.  …And it represents oil and gas getting rid of those temporary solutions and coming back to the grid as more is available,” Foreman said.

The basin has seen several electrification success stories. BPX Energy reported in early 2023 that a successful hook-up to the grid allowed the company to reduce flaring on BPX’s Permian assets from 16% to less than 1%. BPX is spending about $1.4 billion in infrastructure costs to update its production to almost complete electrification.

The energy industry and electric providers in New Mexico have both come forward with plans that will allow other companies to replicate BPX’s success.

In New Mexico, the SPP approved a $7.7 billion transmission plan to meet what the agency called “generational challenges” on its electrical grid. Among the list of projects is a 765-kilovolt power line connecting the southeast part of the state to available infrastructure in the Texas panhandle for “uniquely sharp load increases in New Mexico.”

Last year, the Texas legislature approved House Bill 5066 to study the issue. In September, the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) of Texas passed a regional electric reliability plan estimated to cost $13.8 billion over the next 13 years.

ERCOT will direct the building of new and upgraded transmission lines for the region to bring in power from other regions of the state. The buildout will attempt to meet the region’s demands up to 2038, when the PUC expects an additional 26 GW will be needed in the area.

While oil and gas are the primary drivers of the grid expansion, commissioners have also taken into account the growing needs of artificial intelligence data centers and cryptocurrency operations, according to the plan.

Todd Staples, TXOGA president, said in October that he hoped the public understood the immediate need to ship more electricity to the Permian.

“A lot of times, folks hear things that are speculative, and what might happen; an ‘if-you-build-it-they-will-come’ type of thing,” Staples said. In the case of the Permian oil and gas industry, however, “they’re here.”

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