Liquefaction projects in North America—the U.S., Canada and Mexico—will account for around 85% of global incremental supply in 2025, with nearly three-quarters expected to come from the U.S. alone, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The growth in global LNG supply will come after stocks are forecasted to rise 2%, or 10 Bcm, in 2024—the slowest growth rate since 2020—the Paris-based IEA said in its Oct. 15 fourth-quarter 2024 gas market report.
In 2025, LNG supply is forecast to rise nearly 6%, or by 30 Bcm, in 2025 as several large LNG projects come online.
The EIA forecasted 2024 global gas demand to rise more than 2.5% in 2024 and reach a new all-time high of 4,200 Bcm for the year, or about 148 Tcf.
U.S. LNG drives supply growth
A number of U.S.-based LNG export projects slated to come online by the end of this decade will help the North American country supply cleaner energy to world markets, but primarily in Europe and Asia.
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The U.S.—now the world’s largest LNG exporter after surpassing Australia and Qatar—will drive the addition of new LNG supply in 2025, the IEA said in its report, which highlighted four key American projects.
Venture Global LNG’s Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 will be the largest contributing project in the short-term, the IEA said. Production is expected to start in the fourth-quarter 2024 and ramp up in 2025 toward its 18 Bcm/year nameplate capacity.
Freeport LNG, while not a new project, is expected to provide sizable upside in 2025, according to the IEA. Operations at the three-train export facility are recovering from significant outages in 2024 and debottlenecking activities are expected to contribute to a 10% increase in nameplate capacity.
Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion is set to add seven small-scale trains over the coming years. The total expected annual capacity will be nearly 13 Bcm/year, according to the IEA. The initial volumes from the expansion could begin to flow as early as fourth-quarter 2024 as completion of the trains is expected to be gradual, with only limited incremental exports in 2025.
QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil’s Golden Pass LNG is also expected to add to the U.S. export growth in late-2025 or 2026, “but by far less than originally planned,” the IEA said. “A series of delays to commissioning, from originally first-quarter 2024 to mid-2025 and then to end-2025–partially stemming from the bankruptcy of the project’s lead contractor [Zachry Holdings] in the second-quarter 2024–have significantly scaled back the project’s production potential in 2025 and suggest that exports might start only in 2026,” the IEA said.
Canada, Mexico adding LNG supply
Canada and Mexico are also expected to chip in and contribute to growing North American LNG exports, according to the IEA report.
While U.S. LNG export projects on the Gulf Coast are better positioned to target Europe, since they avoid transiting through the Panama Canal, new projects in Canada and Mexico have more direct and shortened routes to Asian markets.
LNG Canada, with an export capacity of 19 Bcm/year, is expected to start operations in 2025, according to the IEA. Company executives told Hart Energy during Gastech in Houston that the start-up was slated for mid-2025.
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In Mexico, New Fortress Energy’s Fast LNG facility offshore Altamira, which has a 1.9 Bcm/year capacity, exported its first cargo in August 2024 and is expected to continue ramping up exports in 2025.
However, delays affected another Mexican project previously slated for a 2025 start, the IEA said without naming the project. Other Mexican projects in planning and pre-FID include Mexico Pacific’s Saguaro LNG, LNG Alliance’s Amigo LNG, and Sempra Infrastructure’s Vista Pacifico LNG and Salina Cruz LNG.
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Sempra Infrastructure’s Energia Costa Azul 4.4 Bcm/year capacity project—located on Mexico’s Pacific coast—was originally anticipated to launch in 2024 and subsequently delayed to mid-2025. The project was recently further delayed to first-quarter 2026, “the latest example of slippage in project executions reducing potential supply-side market relief in 2025,” the IEA said.