格雷森米尔是继雪佛龙-赫斯之后下一个倒下的巴肯多米诺骨牌吗？

据报道，随着勘探与生产公司寻求在二叠纪盆地以外扩大规模，EnCap 支持的巴肯公司 Grayson Mill Energy 正在探索价值约 50 亿美元的出售方案。

克里斯
马修斯
哈特能源

在经历了历史性的整合浪潮之后，二叠纪盆地的并购机会正在萎缩，因此分析师认为勘探与生产公司将考虑深化在美国其他地区的投资组合

巴肯矿区可能是非二叠纪盆地之一。雪佛龙公司 (Chevron Corp.)正通过以 600 亿美元收购赫斯公司(Hess Corp.)的方式进入巴肯 (Bakken) 。据报道，私人 E&P Grayson Mill Energy也在该地区探索价值约 50 亿美元的出售。

Grayson Mill 在总部位于休斯敦的私募股权公司EnCap Investments LP的支持下，自 2021 年通过Equinor 9 亿美元收购首次进入巴肯盆地以来，已在巴肯盆地发展了规模相当大的投资组合。

Equinor 收购包括该公司在北达科他州和蒙大拿州的经营和非经营面积约 242,000 净英亩，产量约为 48,000 桶油当量/天；当时 WTI 价格约为 60 美元/桶。

去年，格雷森米尔 (Grayson Mill)以 8.25 亿美元收购 Ovintiv 的巴肯资产，扩大了该盆地的规模。Ovintiv交易在北达科他州增加了 46,000 英亩净土地，产量约为 37,000 桶油当量/天；WTI 价格约为 80 美元/桶。

Capital One Securities 的分析师表示，目前很难确定 Grayson Mill 目前的净生产率，但该银行估计其产量范围在 80,000 桶油当量/天到 100,000 桶油当量/天（约 60 桶油）之间。

第一资本证券分析师报告称，“坦率地说，我们认为所提到的 50 亿美元的价格标签看起来很高，并且根据净产量水平，公允价值将固定在 [35 亿美元至 45 亿美元] 范围内。”

EnCap 拒绝透露任何出售格雷森工厂计划的细节。EnCap 管理合伙人 Jason DeLorenzo 告诉 Hart Energy，该公司拥有许多业绩良好的投资组合公司，可能会在未来 12 至 24 个月内将其推向市场。

“雷森米尔就是其中之一，”德洛伦佐说。

有关的

私募股权：寻找“科蒂·皮蓬”，如果不是另一个迈克尔·乔丹的话

敲击和弦

根据摩根大通对 Enverus Intelligence Research 数据的分析，与该地区其他大型运营商相比，Grayson Mill 是巴肯地区生产力最高的勘探开发公司之一。

根据六个月的累计每英尺产量，格雷森米尔公司在 2023 年石油生产率中排名仅落后于Enerplus 公司，而该公司排名领先于其他主要勘探与生产公司，包括马拉松石油公司、赫斯公司、Chord Energy和Continental Resources。

根据摩根大通的分析，格雷森米尔目前在巴肯运营着三座钻井平台。

如果 Grayson Mill 进入市场，哪些勘探与生产公司可能有兴趣分割这些资产？第一资本认为 Chord Energy 将是最合乎逻辑的买家。

Chord 是由Whiting Petroleum和Oasis Petroleum于 2022 年公私合并而成，一直在剥离非核心资产，将其投资组合集中在威利斯顿盆地。

和弦能量图
Chord Energy 由 Whiting Petroleum（紫色）和 Oasis Petroleum（黄色）于 2022 年合并而成。（来源：Rextag）

考虑到 Chord 和 Grayson Mill 之间相当大的地理重叠，以及 Chord 持续渴望深入巴肯，Chord 作为潜在买家确实有意义。

目前的收购价格约为 50 亿美元，对于 Chord 来说，要价可能过高，无法支付。但如果 Chord 能够支付“显着降低的价格”，该银行认为这笔交易可能是有意义的。

第一资本表示，Chord 的资产负债表干净，净债务基本为零，因此该公司“可以轻松地用现金和债务为大部分收购融资”。Chord 还可能包括一定数量的股权考虑，以将杠杆率保持在 1.5 倍左右。

最近上游领域的大量并购活动都是为了延长库存期限。

但据第一资本称，Chord 和 Grayson Mill 之间的交易更多的是为了最大化自由现金流、提高股东资本回报以及获取规模和协同效应的好处，而不是深化 Chord 的岩心钻探库存。

该银行表示，Chord 的战略可能包括支付尽可能接近已证实的已开发生产价值的资产，并让技术（如更长的三英里侧井）和油价从交易中推动上涨。

Chord 告诉 Hart Energy，作为一家上市公司，禁止对潜在的并购进行投机。

科德在一份声明中表示：“总的来说，我们仍然对能够为我们的投资组合增值的机会持开放态度。”

有关的

Chord Energy 走得很远：巴肯勘探与生产公司 (Bakken E&P) 调查四英里支线

围栏线现场报告

其他几个主要勘探与生产项目的面积毗邻或靠近格雷森米尔公司在巴肯的资产。美国石油巨头埃克森美孚公司（通过其子公司XTO 能源公司）和康菲石油公司均已在该盆地开展业务。

埃克森雪佛龙巴肯地图
美国石油巨头埃克森美孚和康菲石油公司已经入驻巴肯。雪佛龙通过收购 Hess Corp. 进军该盆地（来源：Rextag）

雪佛龙通过收购赫斯公司 (Hess Corp)，在巴肯石油产量中获得约 190,000 桶油当量/天。

该地区也是马拉松石油公司、大陆资源公司和 Enerplus 等几家规模较小但规模较大的石油和天然气公司的所在地。根据 Enverus 的数据，这三个国家都是巴肯地区的顶级生产商。

大陆马拉松Enerplus
大陆资源公司、马拉松石油公司和 Enerplus 都是巴肯地区顶级的石油和天然气生产商。（来源：雷克斯泰格）

根据 Enverus 的数据，由于钻探库存稀缺，导致2023 年第四季度交易量达到 1,440 亿美元。2023 年全年上游交易总额为 1,920 亿美元。

原文链接/hartenergy

Is Grayson Mill the Next Bakken Domino to Fall After Chevron-Hess?

As E&Ps look to bulk up outside of the Permian Basin, EnCap-backed Bakken player Grayson Mill Energy is reportedly exploring a sale valued around $5 billion.

Chris
Mathews
Hart Energy

Permian Basin M&A opportunities are shrinking after a historic wave of consolidation in the basin, so analysts believe E&Ps will look at deepening their portfolios in other areas of the U.S.

One of those non-Permian locations could be the Bakken play. Chevron Corp. is getting into the Bakken through its $60 billion acquisition of Hess Corp. It’s also where private E&P Grayson Mill Energy is reportedly exploring a sale valued somewhere around $5 billion.

Grayson Mill, backed by Houston-based private equity firm EnCap Investments LP, has grown a sizable portfolio in the Bakken since first entering the basin through a $900 million acquisition from Equinor in 2021.

The Equinor acquisition included the company’s operated and non-operated acreage—about 242,000 net acres in North Dakota and Montana—and production of around 48,000 boe/d; WTI was about $60/bbl at that time.

Grayson Mill added more scale in the basin by bolting on Ovintiv’s Bakken assets for $825 million last year. The Ovintiv transaction added 46,000 net acres in North Dakota and output of approximately 37,000 boe/d; WTI was about $80/bbl.

Analysts at Capital One Securities said it’s difficult to nail down Grayson Mill’s current net production rate at this point, but the bank estimates a range between 80,000 boe/d and 100,000 boe/d (~60 oil).

“We think the $5 billion price tag referenced frankly looks steep and would peg fair value in the [$3.5 billion to $4.5 billion] range, depending on the net production level,” Capital One Securities analysts reported.

EnCap declined to offer specifics on any plans to sell Grayson Mill. EnCap Managing Partner Jason DeLorenzo told Hart Energy the firm has many well-performing portfolio companies that it may take to market in the next 12 to 24 months.

“Grayson Mill is one of those companies,” DeLorenzo said.

RELATED

Private Equity: Seeking ‘Scottie Pippen’ Plays, If Not Another Michael Jordan

Striking a Chord

Grayson Mill is one of the more productive E&Ps in the Bakken compared to other large operators in the area, according to a J.P. Morgan analysis of Enverus Intelligence Research data.

Based on six-month cumulative output per foot, Grayson Mill ranked only behind Enerplus Corp. in 2023 oil productivity—and the company ranked ahead of other major E&Ps including Marathon Oil Corp., Hess Corp., Chord Energy and Continental Resources.

Grayson Mill is currently operating three drilling rigs in the Bakken, according to the J.P. Morgan analysis.

If Grayson Mill hits the market, which E&Ps might be interested in carving out the assets? Capital One believes Chord Energy would be the most logical buyer.

Chord, formed through the public-public merger of Whiting Petroleum and Oasis Petroleum in 2022, has been offloading non-core assets to focus its portfolio on the Williston Basin.

Chord Energy Map
Chord Energy formed through the merger of Whiting Petroleum (purple) and Oasis Petroleum (yellow) in 2022. (Source: Rextag)

Given the sizable geographic overlap between Chord and Grayson Mill, as well as Chord’s continued desire to get deeper in the Bakken, Chord does make sense as a potential buyer.

The current price being shopped, around $5 billion, might be too big of an asking price for Chord to pay. But if Chord was able to pay “a significantly lower price,” the bank thinks a deal would likely make sense.

Chord has a clean balance sheet with essentially zero net debt, so the company “could easily finance a large portion of the acquisition” with cash and debt, Capital One said. Chord could also include some amount of equity consideration to keep a leverage ratio comfortable at around 1.5x.

A huge amount of the recent M&A activity in the upstream space has been about extending inventory duration.

But a deal between Chord and Grayson Mill would be more about maximizing free cash flow, boosting shareholder capital returns and capturing benefits of scale and synergies—rather than deepening Chord’s core drilling inventory, according to Capital One.

Chord’s strategy would likely involve paying as close to proved developed producing value as possible for the assets and to let technology—like longer three-mile lateral wells—and oil prices drive upside from the deal, the bank said.

Chord told Hart Energy that as a public company it is prohibited from speculating on potential M&A.

“What we can say generally is that we remain open to opportunities that will add value to our portfolio,” Chord said in a statement.

RELATED

Chord Energy Goes Long: Bakken E&P Investigating Four-mile Laterals

Fence line field report

Several other major E&Ps have acreage adjacent to or near Grayson Mill’s assets in the Bakken. U.S. majors Exxon Mobil Corp., through its subsidiary XTO Energy, and ConocoPhillips both have existing footprints in the basin.

Exxon Chevron Bakken Map
U.S. majors Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips are already in the Bakken. Chevron is buying into the basin through its acquisition of Hess Corp. (Source: Rextag)

And Chevron is picking up around 190,000 boe/d of mostly oil production in the Bakken through its acquisition of Hess Corp.

The area is also home to several smaller—but still massive—oil and gas companies, like Marathon Oil, Continental Resources and Enerplus. All three are among the top producers in the Bakken, according to Enverus data.

Continental Marathon Enerplus
Continental Resources, Marathon Oil and Enerplus are each among the top oil and gas producers in the Bakken. (Source: Rextag)

The scarcity-fueled rush for drilling inventory led to a $144-billion deluge of deals during the fourth quarter of 2023, per Enverus figures. Full-year 2023 upstream deals totaled $192 billion.