(彭博社)——美国预计明年原油产量仅增长 32 万桶/日，远低于之前的预期。

美国能源信息署周二在其《短期能源展望》中表示，尽管产量仍有望达到创纪录的 1354 万桶/日，但目前预计年增长率为 2.4%，而去年为 3.2%。去年产量意外大幅增长，但今年产量放缓。

自那时起，美国运营的石油钻井平台数量急剧下降，目前徘徊在 2021 年底以来的最低水平附近，这引发了人们对页岩油生产商将继续优先考虑股东回报而不是增长的预期。

美国石油产量走势已成为市场参与者衡量明年平衡的关键因素，尤其是预计大部分增长将与欧佩克成员国及其盟友的供应恢复相吻合。

国际能源署还下调了对 2025 年全球石油需求的预测，预计 2025 年全球石油需求将增长 120 万桶/日，而上个月的预测为 150 万桶/日。与此同时，供应量预计将保持稳定，这进一步加剧了外界对明年石油市场供应过剩的担忧。国际能源署预计，2025 年全球需求将增长不到 1%。

(Bloomberg) - The U.S. expects crude production to grow by just 320,000 bpd next year, much slower than previously estimated.

While output is still poised to reach a record of 13.54 MMbpd, the annual rate of growth is now projected at 2.4% versus 3.2%, the Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook Tuesday. The slowdown comes after a surprise bumper increase last year.

Since then, the number of oil rigs operating in the U.S. has plummeted and is hovering near the lowest since late 2021, fueling expectations that shale producers will continue to prioritize shareholder returns over growth.

The trajectory of U.S. oil production has become a key factor for market participants gauging balances for next year, particularly as much of growth is expected to coincide with the return of supplies from OPEC members and allies.

The agency also revised lower its 2025 estimate for global oil demand, which is seen growing by 1.2 MMbpd compared to last month’s estimate of 1.5 MMbpd. Supplies, meanwhile, are seen holding steady, adding to growing chorus of calls for an oversupplied oil market next year. The International Energy Agency projects that global demand will grow less than 1% in 2025.