石油价格仍然高位

油价徘徊在90美元/桶附近。 (图片来源:Adobe Stock)

行业

截至4月8日,受中东地缘政治不稳定、需求旺盛以及OPEC+供应限制等因素影响,油价继续徘徊在90美元/桶附近

布伦特原油价格在 4 月第一周升至超过 91 美元/桶,为六个月来的最高水平,但此后略有回落。

deVere Group首席执行官奈杰尔·格林(Nigel Green)预测,在可预见的未来,油价可能会保持在高位。

“近期油价飙升,布伦特原油突破每桶 91 美元,西德克萨斯中质原油今年上涨 21%,凸显了地缘政治不确定性和强劲经济基本面之间复杂的相互作用,”格林评论道。

“尽管对中东冲突升级(包括以色列和哈马斯之间的冲突)、伊朗潜在报复以及红海货船袭击的担忧在推动油价上涨方面发挥了重要作用,但也必须认识到美国、欧洲和中国等主要地区的经济增长动态也对需求产生了巨大的上行压力。这三个经济强国正在见证强劲的增长轨迹,进一步增强了全球对石油的需求。

“无论中东局势如何发展,需求激增都可能为油价提供强有力的支撑。

通过协调减产和逐步增加产量,OPEC+有效限制了供应,防止出现供应过剩的情况,否则可能会压低价格。欧佩克+的这一战略举措有助于维持供需之间的微妙平衡,从而支撑价格水平的上涨,”德维尔首席执行官指出。

“我们相信,OPEC+市场管理将确保布伦特原油价格保持在80-100美元/桶的范围内,OPEC+利用其缺乏弹性的定价能力,将其押注为80美元/桶,并利用闲置产能设定100美元/桶的上限,以应对紧缩政策” Ehsan Khoman 和 Ramya RS在最新的三菱日联金融集团商品周报中表示。

另请参阅 https://oilreviewmiddleeast.com/industry/brent-oil-to-remain-above-us-80-per-barrel-in-2024-bloomberg

 

原文链接/oilreviewmiddleeast

Oil prices remain high

The oil price is hovering around the US$90/bbl mark. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Industry

Oil prices continue to hover around the US$90/bbl mark as of 8 April, as a result of the geopolitical instability in the Middle East, robust demand and OPEC+ supply restraint

Brent rose to more than US$91/bbl in the first week of April, its highest level for six months, although it has since fallen back slightly.

Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, forecasts that oil prices are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future.

“The recent surge in oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing US$91 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate climbing 21% for the year, underscores the complex interplay of geopolitical uncertainties and robust economic fundamentals,” Green commented.

“While fears of escalating conflicts in the Middle East, including between Israel and Hamas, a potential Iranian retaliation, and attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea have played a significant role in propelling oil prices upward, it’s also essential to recognise that economic growth dynamics in key regions like the US, Europe, and China are also exerting substantial upward pressure on demand. These three economic powerhouses are witnessing robust growth trajectories, further intensifying the global appetite for oil.

“This surge in demand is likely to provide a strong support pillar for oil prices, irrespective of developments in the Middle East.

“Through coordinated production cuts and gradual increases in output, OPEC+ has effectively constrained supply, preventing an oversupply scenario that could have otherwise dampened prices. This strategic manoeuvring by OPEC+ has been instrumental in maintaining a delicate balance between supply and demand, thereby supporting elevated price levels,” noted the deVere CEO.

“We believe that OPEC+ market management will ensure Brent crude remains in a USD80-100/bbl range, with a USD80/bbl OPEC+ put from the group leveraging its inelastic pricing power, and a USD100/bbl ceiling from spare capacity to handle tightening shocks,” said Ehsan Khoman and Ramya RS in the latest MUFG Commodities Weekly report.

See also https://oilreviewmiddleeast.com/industry/brent-oil-to-remain-above-us-80-per-barrel-in-2024-bloomberg