德克萨斯州加尔维斯顿的石油和天然气行业目前处于好消息和坏消息的境地，但仍有充分的理由感到乐观。

Spears & Associates 副总裁 Richard Spears 在由专业工程师协会 (SPE) 主办的人工举升会议和展览会上向午餐会的观众发表主题演讲，表示尽管目前该行业有很多值得高兴和担心的事情，但人们应该专注于他们能够影响的事情。展望未来，他预测到 2025 年全球人工举升市场每年将增长 8%。

他说，目前，该行业正享受着高油价、创纪录的天然气价格、高运营公司和油田服务利润、强劲的需求、技术进步和创新以及红利。

他说：“我不在乎油价是每桶 90 美元、100 美元还是 110 美元，只要油价超过 65 美元就是好消息。”而汽油价格“对我们来说是好事，对消费者来说却很糟糕。”

他说，高油价推动了石油公司的高利润。斯皮尔斯说，尽管油田服务利润“一直较高，但目前非常好”。他补充说，“对每个分子、钻头和抽油杆”的需求都非常强劲。

“如果你看看 1996 年以来人工举升行业的变化率，就会发现如果该行业增长，增长率为 8%。有些年份是 12%，有些年份是 5%，但违约率是 8%。—— Richard Spears, Spears & Associates Inc.

他说，石油和天然气行业正在通过技术进步做出回应，创新“目前在该行业盛行”。此外，该行业正在向股东返还股息并“重新赢得过去 20 年投资者对其所摧毁的部分信任”。

虽然这有很多好处，但石油和天然气行业也必须面对一些严峻的现实。首先，人口增长放缓，从而推动相应的能源需求，他说。其他当前的问题包括预算、油田通货膨胀、勘探不足、美国对石油和天然气行业的敌对政治、资金不足、某些热点地区缺乏可用人员以及经济衰退的威胁。

他还指出，许多运营公司今年早些时候就已经耗尽了预算。

“我想我从来没在八月份听说过这种事，但我们在六月份从我们的战地人员那里听说过这种事，”斯皮尔斯说。“我们通常在万圣节前后、十一月遇到这种事。六月份没有，七月份没有，八月份也没有。”

他说，幸运的是，这些预算将在年初重新设定，因此他认为这只是一个暂时的问题。

需求导致油田价格上涨，但斯皮尔斯预计价格将趋于稳定。与此同时，油田服务业的资本渠道有限，这使得这些公司难以发展，他说。

尽管石油和天然气价格一直居高不下，但该行业并未在勘探方面进行投资。“用于地球物理勘探的资金几乎为零，”他说，但他补充说，“最终我们将开始在地下进行勘探，寻找石油和天然气。”

他补充道，与此同时，美国石油和天然气行业正面临着前所未有的“最为恶劣的政治环境”。

人才短缺，尤其是在二叠纪盆地这样的地方，他说。“我们已经向他们提供每天一千美元的报酬，让他们担任定向钻井工，但他们却不肯接受。”

最后，他说，石油和天然气行业正面临经济衰退的威胁。

他说，在好消息和坏消息中，有相当一部分是人们和公司无法真正控制的，包括油价、天然气价格、需求、人口增长、政治、油田资本的缺乏、人员的缺乏以及经济衰退的威胁。

他补充说，时间还会消除一些问题，例如预算问题、油田通货膨胀以及缺乏勘探活动。

他说，将这些项目从好消息或坏消息名单中剔除后，剩下的就是公司实际上可以控制的事情，比如盈利能力、技术进步、创新方式和股息。

展望 2023 年，Spears 预计大多数人工举升市场都会有所增长。

预计 2022 年杆举市场规模为 23 亿美元，2023 年为 26 亿美元；预计 2022 年电动潜水泵市场规模为 60 亿美元，2023 年为 67 亿美元。预计 2022 年螺杆泵市场规模为 4 亿美元，2023 年为 5 亿美元，而预计今年液压举升市场规模为 3 亿美元，明年为 4 亿美元。预计 2022 年气举市场规模为 9 亿美元，2023 年为 10 亿美元，而预计今年和明年柱塞举升市场规模将保持稳定，均为 5 亿美元。

总体而言，他预计今年全球人工举升市场总额将达到 110 亿美元，2023 年将达到 120 亿美元，2024 年将达到 130 亿美元，2025 年将达到 140 亿美元。

“如果你看看 1996 年以来人工举升行业的变化率，就会发现如果该行业增长，增长率为 8%。有些年份是 12%，有些年份是 5%，但违约率是 8%”，Spears 说道。

GALVESTON, Texas—The oil and gas industry is in a good news-bad news place right now, but there’s plenty of reason for optimism.

Spears & Associates Vice President Richard Spears told a keynote luncheon audience at the Artificial Lift Conference and Exhibition hosted by the Society of Professional Engineers (SPE) that while there’s a lot to like—and to worry about—in the industry right now, people should focus on the things they can influence. Looking forward, he projected an annual 8% increase in the global artificial lift market through 2025.

Currently, he said, the industry is enjoying high oil prices, record gas prices, high operating company and oilfield services profits, strong demand, technology advances and innovation, and dividends.

“I don’t care if [oil prices] are $90/bbl, $100 or $110, anything over $65 is good news,” he said. And gas prices are “great for us, terrible for the consumer.”

Those high prices are contributing to high oil company profits, he said. And while oilfield services profits “have been higher, they are very good right now,” Spears said. Demand is very strong “for every molecule, drill bit and sucker rod,” he added.

“If you look at the rate of change in the artificial lift industry since 1996 on, if the industry grows, it grows at 8%. Some years it’s 12%, some years it’s 5%, but the default rate is 8%.”—Richard Spears, Spears & Associates Inc.

The oil and gas industry is responding with technology advances, he said, and innovation “is running rampant in the industry right now.” Also, the industry is returning dividends to its shareholders and “earning back some of the trust it destroyed over the last 20 years with investors.”

While that is a lot to like, the oil and gas industry also has to face up to a few hard realities. First is that population growth, which drives a corresponding energy demand, has slowed, he said. Other current concerns include budgets, oilfield inflation, lack of exploration, hostile politics in the U.S. in relation to the oil and gas industry, lack of capital, lack of available personnel in certain hot spots, and the threat of recession.

Many operating companies exhausted their budgets early this year, he also noted.

“I don’t think I’ve ever heard that in August, but we were hearing it from our guys in the field in June,” Spears said. “We usually run into that around Halloween, November. Not in June, not in July, not in August.”

Fortunately, he said, those budgets will reset at the turn of the year, so he views this as a temporary issue.

Demand has led to oilfield inflation, but Spears expects that to stabilize. At the same time, oilfield services has limited access to capital, making it hard for those companies to grow, he said.

And while oil and gas prices have been high, the industry has not invested in exploration. “The amount of money being spent on geophysical is practically zero,” he said but added, “eventually we’ll start thumping underground, looking for oil and gas.”

At the same time, the U.S. oil and gas industry is facing one of the “more hostile political environments” it has ever faced, he added.

Personnel are in short supply, especially in places like the Permian Basin, he said. “We already offer them a thousand dollars a day to be a directional driller, and they won’t do it.”

And, lastly, he said, the oil and gas industry is operating under the threat of a recession.

Of those items on the good news and bad news side of things, he said, there were quite a few that people and companies can’t really control, including oil price, gas price, demand, population growth, politics, lack of oilfield capital, lack of personnel and the threat of recession.

Time would also eliminate some problems, he added, such as the budget issue, oilfield inflation and lack of exploration activity.

With those items stricken off the lists of good or bad news, he said, that left things that the companies could actually control, such as profitability, technology advances and how they innovate and dividends.

Looking forward to 2023, Spears expects some growth in most of the artificial lift markets.

Rod lift was projected for $2.3 billion in 2022 and $2.6 billion in 2023; electric submersible pumps were projected at $6 billion in 2022 and $6.7 billion in 2023. Progressing cavity pumps were forecast at $400 million in 2022 and $500 million in 2023, while hydraulic lift was forecast at $300 million this year and $400 million next year. Gas lift was forecast at $900 million in 2022 and $1 billion in 2023, while the plunger lift market was forecast to remain steady at $500 million this year and next.

And overall, he expects the overall global artificial lift market to hit $11 billion this year, $12 billion in 2023, $13 billion in 2024 and $14 billion in 2025.

“If you look at the rate of change in the artificial lift industry since 1996 on, if the industry grows, it grows at 8%. Some years it’s 12%, some years it’s 5%, but the default rate is 8%,” Spears said.