布伦特原油价格上周收于 74.17 美元，本周收于 75.38 美元。WTI 价格上周收于 70.33 美元，本周收于 71.55 美元。

尽管有一些对油价不利的事态发展，但油价仍在上涨： 

• 美国债务上限仍未解决，共和党与拜登政府之间的谈判上周破裂。
• 美国商业原油库存增加504万桶。
• 战略石油储备（SPR）库存水平减少243万桶，连续七周释放 

根据我们对供需和其他因素的参考预测，我们仍然认为布伦特原油价格将在下半年向 90 美元移动，但需要注意的是，下行风险大于上行风险与预测相关。 

这些风险主要与需求方相关，最近的数据继续凸显这些风险。 

• 美国消费者仍然面临着工资下降、债务水平高和通货膨胀的困扰。美国最大零售商沃尔玛首席执行官表示，过去两年食品价格上涨了 20% 以上，这说明了后者的严重程度。
• 美国10年期国债上周收于3.658%。相比之下，3月初的10年期国债收益率为4.073%，2022年10月19日为4.226%。收益率曲线仍然倒挂，2年期国债收益率为4.252%，1年期国债收益率为5.008%。收益率曲线倒挂被视为经济处于衰退边缘的迹象。
• 欧盟委员会预测，2023年德国经济增速仅为0.2%，而整个欧盟预计增速为0.8%左右。 
• 就中国而言，1-4月份，中国吸收外资下降3.3%。中国经济增长继续受到内需疲软和出口需求疲软的制约。此外，中国青年失业率（16岁至24岁）已达到20%，创历史新高。 

然而，供给方看起来更具支持性。上周，美国正在运营的石油钻井平台数量减少了 11 座，目前为 575 座，而疫情前截至 2020 年 3 月 13 日这一周的水平为 683 座。加拿大增加了 2 个，目前为 39 个，而去年同期运营的钻井平台数量为 40 个。 

根据 OPEC+ 此前宣布的 1.16 MMbbl/d 的额外供应削减，似乎是在过去两周沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、科威特、伊拉克、阿尔及利亚和加蓬的出口总量减少 1.0 MMbbl/d 的情况下开始的。船舶跟踪数据。伊拉克石油部长和俄罗斯能源部长上周五表示，他们对石油减产和欧佩克+协议的共同承诺，进一步支持减产。 

根据减产和我们预测的需求，下半年石油供需平衡将转为赤字。 

未来一周，我们预计美国债务上限将继续成为不确定性的来源，股市和石油市场将受到当前事态发展的影响。因此，债务上限得到积极解决的迹象将为油价提供上行支撑。然而，目前双方似乎都愿意继续谈判进程，直到美国财政部开始耗尽资金的最后几天，美国财政部表示，这将在 6 月 1 日发生。 当前的症结包括增加福利计划的工作要求、削减支出、税收政策以及简化与能源项目相关的联邦许可程序的规定。

有关成品油和价格的完整预测，请参阅我们的 短期展望。

作者简介：John E. Paise ， Stratas Advisors总裁，负责管理全球研究和咨询业务。在加入 Stratas Advisors 之前，Paisie 是总部位于华盛顿特区的战略咨询公司 PFC Energy 的合伙人，负责领导全球业务，专注于帮助客户（包括国际石油公司、国家石油公司、独立石油公司和政府）了解未来市场环境和竞争格局，设定适当的战略方向并实施战略举措。他在 IBM 咨询公司（原普华永道、普华永道咨询公司）工作了八年多，担任专注于能源领域的战略变革实践的副合伙人，同时居住在休斯顿、新加坡、北京和伦敦。

 The price of Brent crude ended the week at $75.38 after closing the previous week at $74.17. The price of WTI ended the week at $71.55 after closing the previous week at $70.33.

Oil prices increased despite several developments that are negative for oil prices: 

• The U.S. debt limit is still not resolved and negotiations between the Republicans and the Biden Administration broke off during the last week.
• Commercial crude inventories in the U.S. increased by 5.04 million barrels.
• The level of inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 2.43 million, which represents the seven consecutive weeks of releases from the SPR 

We are still holding our view that the price of Brent crude oil will move toward $90 during the second half of the year based on our reference forecast of supply/demand and other factors – with the caveat that there is more downside risk than upside risk associated with the forecast. 

These risks are associated mainly with the demand side of the equation and recent data continues to highlight these risks. 

• The U.S. consumer is still facing the combination of falling wages, high debt levels and inflation. The extent of the latter is illustrated by food prices having increased by more than 20% over the last two years, according to the CEO of Walmart, the U.S.’ largest retailer.
• The U.S. 10-year treasury ended last week at 3.658%. In comparison, the 10 year was at 4.073% at the beginning of March and 4.226% on October 19, 2022. The yield curve remains inverted with 2-year treasury at 4.252% and the 1-year treasury at 5.008%. An inverted yield curve is seen as a sign of the economy being on the verge of a recession.
• The EU commission is forecasting that Germany’s economic growth will only be 0.2%, while the entire EU is forecasted to grow at around 0.8% during 2023. 
• With respect to China, foreign direct investment in China decreased by 3.3% during the January through April. China’s economic growth continues to be hampered by weak domestic demand and weak demand for exports. Additionally, China’s youth jobless rate (age 16 – 24) has reached 20%, which is an all-time high. 

The supply-side of the equation, however, looks more supportive. Last week, the number of operating oil rigs in the U.S. decreased by 11 and now stands at 575 rigs, which compares to the pre-COVID level of 683 that occurred during the week of March 13, 2020. The number of operating oil rigs in Canada increased by 2 and now stands at 39, which compares to 40 operating rigs for the same period of the previous year. 

The additional supply cuts of 1.16  MMbbl/d that were previously announced by OPEC+ appear to have been initiated with the combined exports from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Gabon decreasing by 1.0 MMbbl/d during the last two weeks according to shiptracking data. Further support for the supply reductions comes from the oil minister of Iraq and the minister of energy from Russia stating last Friday their mutual commitment to oil production cuts and the OPEC+ agreement. 

Based on the production cuts along with our forecast demand, the oil supply/demand balance will shift into a deficit during the second half of the year. 

For the upcoming week, we are expecting that the U.S. debt limit will continue to be a source of uncertainty and the equity markets as well as the oil market will be affected by the ongoing developments. As such, signs of a positive resolution to the debt limit will provide upward support for oil prices. At this time, however, it appears that both sides are willing to continue with the negotiating process up until the final days before the U.S. Treasury starts to run out of money, which the U.S. Treasury Department says will occur on June 1. Current sticking points include adding work requirements to benefit programs, spending reductions, tax policies and a provision to ease the federal permitting process associated with energy projects.

For a complete forecast of refined products and prices, please refer to our Short-term Outlook.

About the Author: John E. Paise, president of Stratas Advisors, is responsible for managing the research and consulting business worldwide. Prior to joining Stratas Advisors, Paisie was a partner with PFC Energy, a strategic consultancy based in Washington, D.C., where he led a global practice focused on helping clients (including IOCs, NOC, independent oil companies and governments) to understand the future market environment and competitive landscape, set an appropriate strategic direction and implement strategic initiatives. He worked more than eight years with IBM Consulting (formerly PriceWaterhouseCoopers, PwC Consulting) as an associate partner in the strategic change practice focused on the energy sector while residing in Houston, Singapore, Beijing and London.