Rystad Energy报告称，尽管传统石油和天然气勘探支出预计将自 2019 年以来首次突破 500 亿美元，但运营商并未看到预期结果。

“上游企业正面临一段不确定时期。Rystad Energy 上游研究副总裁 Aatisha Mahajan 在一份新闻稿中表示，他们渴望利用对化石燃料不断增长的需求并寻找更多资源，但最近的结果却乏善可陈。“如果勘探工作在今年剩余时间内继续取得不令人印象深刻的结果，那么 2023 年可能会因为错误的原因而打破纪录。”

据 Rystad 称，勘探者在 2023 年上半年发现了 2.6 Bboe，比 2022 年上半年减少了 42%。到目前为止，已经有 55 个发现，平均发现了 47 MMboe，低于每次发现的 56 MMboe。 2022年期间。

迄今为止，海上工业约占勘探支出的 95%，但仅占已发现量的三分之二左右。海上发现在超深水、深水和陆架发现之间分布相对均匀。Rystad 预计 2023 年剩余时间内的钻探活动将有所增加，预计与 2022 年相比，短桩井将增长 27%。

尽管高影响井的成功率仅为 31%，但预计各大石油公司将继续推动支出。六家公司预计将花费 70 亿美元用于勘探，这一数字比去年高出 10%。勘探活动可能会在 2023 年下半年获得动力，计划钻探重要的勘探井。总体而言，Rystad 预测未来几个月各大石油公司将占全球勘探总支出的 14%。

尽管勘探尚未取得预期结果，但 Rystad 相信今年会取得一些成功，因为预期井只完成了 30%。剩下的 56 口探井中，只有 23 口已经或预计今年将钻探，这意味着 60% 可能会钻探或推迟到 2024 年。即使 2023 年证明不成功，明年也可能出现反弹。

Despite conventional oil and gas exploration spend anticipated to top $50 billion for the first time since 2019, operators aren’t seeing expected results, Rystad Energy reports.

“Upstream companies are facing a period of uncertainty. They are eager to capitalize on the increased demand for fossil fuels and find additional resources, but recent results have been lackluster,” Aatisha Mahajan, vice president of upstream research at Rystad Energy said in a press release. “If exploration efforts continue to yield unimpressive results for the remainder of the year, 2023 could be a record-breaker for the wrong reasons.”

According to Rystad, explorers found 2.6 Bboe in the first half of 2023, 42% lower than the first half of 2022. So far, 55 discoveries have been made with discoveries averaging 47 MMboe — lower than the 56 MMboe per discovery for the same period in 2022.

The offshore industry accounted for about 95% of exploration spending year to date but only about two-thirds of discovered volumes. Offshore discoveries are spread relatively evenly between ultra-deepwater, deepwater and shelf finds. Rystad expects to see an increase in drilling activity for the remainder of 2023, with 27% projected growth in spud wells versus 2022.

Despite high impact wells only yielding a 31% success rate, majors are expected to continue to drive spending. Six companies are expected to spend $7 billion on exploration — a figure 10% higher than last year. Exploration activity will likely gain momentum in the second half of 2023, with crucial exploration wells planned to be drilled. Overall, Rystad forecasts that the majors will contribute 14% of total global exploration spending in the coming months.

Though exploration has not yielded the desired results, Rystad believes there is some success to be had this year, as only 30% of anticipated wells have been completed. Only 23 of a remaining 56 exploration wells have been or are expected to be drilled this year, meaning 60% are likely to be drilled or postponed until 2024. Even if 2023 proves unsuccessful, a rebound could be on the horizon for next year.