Expand’s Dell'Osso: E&Ps Show ‘Unusual’ Discipline with $4 NatGas Strip
Haynesville Shale’s largest gas producers are displaying restraint with a $4/Mcf forward curve. “That’s really unusual,” said Expand Energy CEO Nick Dell’Osso.
Haynesville Shale producers are exhibiting rare discipline with elevated natural gas prices, forcing some analysts to redraw growth forecasts.
Haynesville E&Ps aren’t racing to drill up scarce shale gas inventory as the “golden age of natural gas” begins to take form.
Henry Hub futures average $3.56 for the rest of 2025, according to CME Group data. Forward prices are at a healthy $4/Mcf for the rest of 2026, Expand Energy President and CEO Nick Dell’Osso said. He spoke April 24 at the “Powering AI Global Leadership Summit” hosted by Oklahoma State University’s Hamm Institute for American Energy.
Yet, U.S. gas rigs are down from levels seen a year ago when prices hung around $1.50, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.
“That’s really unusual,” Dell’Osso said. “When you see a forward curve of $4 for natural gas you should see that rig count go up.”
“The time has come for the Haynesville,” BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said during the CERAWeek conference in Houston in March.
Still, Haynesville E&Ps haven’t stepped on the gas pedal yet.
The Haynesville rig count rose by one to 32 during the week ended April 25, according to Baker Hughes rig count data.
Compared to last year, the play’s rig count is down from an average of 35, when Henry Hub prices averaged $2.19. Haynesville rigs averaged 52 in 2023 at $2.53 gas.
The caution is warranted, Dell’Osso said: “There’s still quite a bit of uncertainty as to what happens beyond 2026.”
Natural gas futures have slipped from over $4.50-plus levels seen in March and April, according to CME Group data. Meanwhile, Haynesville drilling faces high pressure, high temperature (HPHT) conditions that require elevated breakeven prices.
Price volatility at key hubs served by Haynesville supply continues to complicate drilling plans, according to Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR).
Layer in more than 105 Bcf/d of production and healthy storage injections, and there’s not a lot of room for upside, according to East Daley Analytics (EDA).
But a surge of new LNG demand picking up in 2026 suggests low prices will not last forever.
The $4 strip price for 2026 “is going to have to move up now in order to incite production to match snowballing LNG demand,” Jack Weixel, senior director at EDA, told Hart Energy.
U.S. LNG exports averaged 11.9 Bcf/d in 2024. But new LNG export projects could push domestic LNG feedgas demand to nearly 20 Bcf/d by mid-2026.
U.S. LNG feedgas demand could reach 20 Bcf/d by mid-2026 with new projects starting up, according to data from East Daley Analytics and Keybanc Capital Markets. (Source: Keybanc)
Around 10 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity is under construction right now, Dell’Osso said.
New demand will stem from projects like Golden Pass LNG, expected to come online later this year.
Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG’s Phase 1 and Corpus Christi’s Stage 3, which came online in late 2024, are also ramping up toward full capacity.
Plaquemines LNG Phase 2 and Venture Global’s CP2 LNG are expected online in 2026.
Future demand will stem from Costa Azul LNG on Mexico’s Pacific coast and the Delfin floating LNG terminal in the Gulf of Mexico, Weixel said.
That’s before factoring in AI data center demand and demand for domestic power generation.
“The current price pain is temporary and will only delay a production ramp by around three months,” Weixel said.
This conversation is moderated according to Hart Energy community rules. Please read the rules before joining the discussion. If you’re experiencing any technical problems, please contact our customer care team.
