据雷斯塔能源称，勘探与生产公司正在加大东南亚海上活动，以增加天然气产量并满足长期需求增长，这可能会释放出 1000 亿美元的潜在产量。

但雷斯塔德表示，该地区的发展需要较高的盈亏平衡价格。

根据美国能源信息署的数据，亚洲是美国第二大液化天然气出口市场，去年平均日出口量为31亿立方英尺，主要出口到印度、中国、韩国和日本。

但 Rystad 表示，到 2028 年，东南亚区域项目将通过一系列最终投资决策 (FID) 得到释放。

Rystad Energy 上游研究副总裁 Prateek Pandey 在报告中表示：“这比 2014 年至 2023 年期间达成 FID 的 450 亿美元开发项目增加了一倍，标志着该地区海上天然气行业的蓬勃发展。”“新的碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 进展将有助于满足该地区的批准议程。”

该地区的天然气行业预计将大幅增长，预计到 2028 年，FID 提供的天然气资源将增至 58 万亿立方英尺，比 2019 年至 2024 年五年间增长三倍。

增长取决于有效地将最近的发现货币化以及推进延迟的发展。

尽管投资环境良好，但运营商仍面临经济挑战，尤其是在深水和酸性天然气项目方面。Rystad Energy 分析表明，许多项目需要天然气价格高于历史平均水平 4 美元/千立方英尺才能实现盈利。Rystad 表示，理想情况下，价格需要接近 6 美元/千立方英尺。

Rystad 发现，在 7.50 美元/千立方英尺的价格下，95% 的计划开发项目将具有经济可行性，尤其是印度尼西亚的液化天然气项目和越南的国内供应计划。据路透社报道，截至 7 月 17 日，7 月 5 日当周，日本韩国市场 (JKM) 天然气价格为 11.95 美元。

首先，需要做出最终投资决定，而这需要大量资金。

石油和天然气巨头预计将在开发中扮演重要角色，占计划投资的 25%。随着道达尔能源在马来西亚进行大规模收购，他们所占比例可能会扩大到 27%。尽管这家总部位于巴黎的公司于 6 月同意以 2.59 亿美元的价格将子公司道达尔能源 EP (Brunei) BV 出售给马来西亚独立 E&P Hibiscus Petroleum Berhard。

Rystad 表示，进一步的投资将来自国家石油公司 (NOC)，其投资份额将达到 31%。

Rystad 称，东亚自身的上游公司正在崛起，占据 15% 的市场份额，并且有通过重点并购和勘探实现增长的潜力。

东南亚国家最近将重点放在国内生产的未来，同时限制对天然气进口的依赖。能源安全和向天然气燃料的过渡已成为该地区各国政府日益关注的问题。

正如印尼国家石油公司 ( Pertamina ) 总裁兼首席执行官尼克·维迪亚瓦蒂 (Nicke Widyawati)在去年的世界石油大会上所指出的那样，无论价格如何，印尼国家石油公司的首要任务是维护印尼的能源安全。

Pertamina 还投资了电动汽车、生物燃料以及碳捕获与封存领域。

就投资而言，印尼是该地区各国中的佼佼者。主要项目包括Inpex运营的阿巴迪液化天然气项目、埃尼的印度尼西亚深水开发项目 (IDD) 和英国石油公司的 Tangguh Ubadari 碳捕获项目 (UCC)。

雷斯塔德公司称，加上最近在东加里曼丹和安达曼省发现的油气项目，印度尼西亚的项目估计占到印度尼西亚计划进行最终投资决定的海上天然气总投资的 75%。

雷斯塔德称，“尽管马来西亚凭借近期的最终投资决定、勘探成功和计划中的勘探努力，继续保持强劲的活动水平，但这一显著增长使印尼成为马来西亚既定主导地位的强大竞争对手。”

预计自 2025 年开始，印度尼西亚的 FID 活动将会增加，这得益于 BP 和 Eni 等全球企业牵头的重大项目。

马来西亚即将进行的 FID 项目凸显了自 2020 年以来取得的重大发现，主要由Petronas、PTTEP和Shell管理。

E&Ps are ramping up activity offshore Southeast Asia to increase natural gas output and meet long-term demand growth that could unlock a potential $100 billion in volumes, according to Rystad Energy.

But development in the area will require high breakeven prices, Rystad said.

Asia is the U.S.’ second largest market for LNG exports, with an average 3.1 Bcf/d delivered last year — primarily to India, China, South Korea and Japan, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

But regional projects in Southeast Asia stand to unleash by a “flurry” of final investment decisions (FID) by 2028, Rystad said.

“This represents a twofold increase over the $45 billion in developments that reached FID from 2014 to 2023 and signals a surge for the region’s offshore gas industry,” Prateek Pandey, Rystad Energy vice president of upstream research said in the report. “New carbon capture and storage (CCS) advancements will help meet the region’s sanctioning agenda.”

The region's gas sector anticipates substantial growth, with projected gas resources from FIDs set to rise to 58 Tcf by 2028 — a threefold increase from the five years spanning 2019 to 2024.

Growth hinges on efficiently monetizing recent discoveries and advancing delayed developments.

Despite a favorable investment climate, operators face economic challenges, particularly in deepwater and sour gas ventures. Rystad Energy analysis indicates that many projects require gas prices above historical averages of $4/Mcf to achieve profitability. Optimally, prices need to be closer to $6/Mcf, Rystad said.

At prices of $7.50/Mcf, 95% ofof planned developments would be economically viable, especially LNG projects in Indonesia and domestic supply initiatives in Vietnam, Rystad found. As of July 17, natural gas prices Japan Korea Marker (JKM) traded at $11.95 for the week of July 5, according to Reuters.

First, the FIDs need to come, which will require buckets of capital.

Oil and gas majors are expected to play a sizeable role in development, accounting for 25% of planned investments. Their role could expand to 27% following TotalEnergies’ substantial acquisition efforts in Malaysia. That despite the Paris-based company agreeing to sell in June subsidiary TotalEnergies EP (Brunei) BV to Malaysian independent E&P Hibiscus Petroleum Berhard for $259 million.

Further investment would come from national oil companies (NOCs), which would account for a 31% share, Rystad said.

East Asia's own upstream companies are emerging with a 15% share and have the potential for growth through a focus M&A as well as exploration, Rystad.

Southeast Asian countries have lately focused on the future of domestic production while limiting dependence on gas imports. Energy security and the transition to gas as a fuel have become growing concerns for governments in the region.

As Nicke Widyawati, president and CEO of Indonesia’s Pertamina noted at the World Petroluem Congress last year, the NOC’s priority is to maintain Indonesian energy security, “whatever the price.”

Pertamina has also invested in electric vehicles, biofuels and carbon capture and sequestration.

Indonesia is a standout among countries in the region when it comes to investment. Major projects include the Inpex-operated Abadi LNG, Eni’s Indonesia Deepwater Development (IDD) and BP’s Tangguh Ubadari Carbon Capture (UCC).

Along with recent discoveries in the East Kalimantan and Andaman provinces, the country’s projects are estimated to account for 75% of Indonesia's total offshore gas investments slated for FID, Rystad said.

“This significant increase positions Indonesia as a formidable contender to Malaysia's established dominance, although Malaysia continues to maintain robust activity levels with recent FIDs, exploration success and planned exploration efforts,” Rystad said.

Indonesia anticipates increased FID activity starting in 2025, bolstered by major projects spearheaded by global players such as BP and Eni.

Malaysia's upcoming FID projects underscore significant discoveries made since 2020, primarily managed by Petronas, PTTEP and Shell.