NREL 分析发现，数百万英亩土地有发展太阳能、风能和地热能的机会，而大多数地区则未受干扰或可用于其他土地用途。

联邦土地用于多种用途，包括娱乐、保护、牲畜放牧和能源开发。传统上，这些土地上的能源开发主要集中在化石燃料生产上。美国本土约 12% 的石油钻探是在联邦土地上进行的，联邦土地上天然气总产量的份额也差不多。相比之下，目前只有 4% 的运营公用事业规模的陆地可再生能源产能（太阳能光伏 (PV)、陆地风能和地热）位于联邦土地上。

但现在，随着人们对更多可再生能源开发的兴趣日益浓厚，现在是重新审视联邦土地上此类开发的潜力的好时机。

在一项新研究中，美国国家可再生能源实验室 (NREL) 量化了在美国本土联邦土地上可以开发多少太阳能光伏、风能和地热能。NREL 发现这些技术在未来的发展潜力巨大，同时仍留有大量空间用于其他用途。

“我们了解到，联邦土地上可再生能源技术潜力巨大，”NREL 首席研究员兼高级能源系统研究员 Trieu Mai 表示。“这些潜力远远超过满足我们未来能源需求所需的潜力，创造了与其他用途冲突较少的开发机会。”

联邦土地上可能开发多少可再生能源？
为了了解联邦土地上未来可再生能源的部署机会，NREL 创建了七种具有广泛可能性的情景。所有七种情景都到 2035 年实现 100% 无碳电力，并假设到 2050 年实现高电气化。NREL 这样​​做是为了了解可能发生的最大可再生能源开发总量。

对于每种情景，NREL 使用电力部门模型来确定在全国哪些地方建设哪些能源技术以满足未来的能源需求。然后，这些结果被缩小以产生联邦土地上的部署估计值。

在三个主要情景中，NREL 估计到 2035 年，联邦土地上将部署 51-84 千兆瓦 (GW) 的太阳能光伏、风能和地热发电容量。用于这三种技术的联邦土地总面积从 325,000 到 200 万英亩不等。这不到所有联邦土地面积的 0.5%，而且很大一部分土地还可以用于其他用途。在非联邦

选址更受限制的最高部署情景中，到 2035 年，联邦土地上的可再生能源部署将增加到 231-270 GW。

有多少可再生资源可供开发？NREL 使用地理空间工具模拟了三种可再生技术在联邦土地上的技术潜力（即考虑选址限制后的最大可用资源量）。技术潜力可以用土地面积或发电能力来衡量。

NREL 模拟了由五个机构管理的土地的技术潜力：美国土地管理局、美国鱼类和野生动物管理局、美国森林管理局、美国国防部和美国能源部。为了确保模型中的选址符合实际情况，NREL 在整个研究过程中与这些机构密切合作，包括整合 BLM 西部太阳能计划的详细地理空间数据。NREL

高级研究员 Anthony Lopez 表示：“每个机构都有自己的任务重点，这对其土地的管理方式有影响。”“我们通过根据其他土地用途（如娱乐、历史保护、自然保护和关键栖息地）限制可再生能源开发来确定技术潜力。即使考虑到其他用途，我们也发现许多剩余土地面积适合可再生能源开发。”

NREL 估计，全美 4400 万英亩联邦土地上可产生 5750 吉瓦的公用事业规模光伏发电量。风电开发在 4300 万英亩土地上具有 875 吉瓦的潜在发电量。水热系统可在 1200 万英亩土地上产生 130 吉瓦的发电量，而增强型地热系统可在 2700 万英亩土地上产生 975 吉瓦的发电量。虽然这些估计值代表了联邦土地上可再生能源的巨大潜力，但只需其中的一小部分便可满足未来的能源需求。

虽然 NREL 力求确保建模中的选址切合实际，但仍然存在不确定性。为了解决这些不确定性，NREL 开发了一个场景来探讨选址机会更加有限的影响。在这种情况下，潜在的风电容量下降 96%，太阳能容量下降 70%。

我们该何去何从？
由于联邦土地满足许多公众需求，因此任何关于其使用的决定都涉及权衡。土地管理者必须平衡各种优先事项，而且他们在可再生能源开发方面的经验可能有限。“合作对于支持这些机构在负责任地整合可再生能源开发的同时处理相互竞争的利益至关重要，”NREL 能源系统研究员 Melinda Marquis 说道。

这是第一项以协调和高分辨率的方法研究整个美国联邦土地上可再生能源开发的研究——涵盖所有联邦土地和多种可再生能源技术。未来的分析可以评估特定区域或地点的可行性，并应随着土地管理者优先事项的变化而更新。

“通过这项研究，我们与五个合作机构建立了富有成效的对话，”Marquis 说道。“我们现在有一个持续合作的技术框架，将指导未来负责任的能源开发。”

NREL Analysis Finds Millions of Acres Have Opportunity for Solar, Wind, and Geothermal, While Leaving Most Areas Undisturbed or Available for Other Land Uses.

Federal lands are used for many different purposes including recreation, conservation, livestock grazing, and energy development. Traditionally, energy development on these lands has focused on fossil production. About 12% of oil drilling in the contiguous United States is on federal lands, and the share of total natural gas production on federal lands is similar. In contrast, only 4% of operating utility-scale land-based renewable energy capacity—solar photovoltaic (PV), land-based wind, and geothermal—is currently located on federal lands.

But now, with growing interest in more renewable energy development, it is a good time to revisit the potential for this development on federal lands.

In a new study, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) quantified how much solar PV, wind, and geothermal energy could be developed on federal lands in the contiguous United States. NREL finds there is great potential for these technologies going forward, while still leaving substantial area for other uses.

"We learned that there is huge potential for renewable energy technologies on federal lands," said Trieu Mai, principal investigator and senior energy systems researcher at NREL. "The potential is far more than what will be needed to meet our future energy demands, creating opportunities for development that have low conflict with other uses."

How Much Renewable Energy Might Be Developed on Federal Lands?
To understand future renewable energy deployment opportunities on federal lands, NREL created seven scenarios with a wide range of possibilities. All seven scenarios achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035 and assume high electrification through 2050. NREL did this to understand the total maximum renewable energy development that could occur.

For each scenario, NREL used a power sector model to determine what energy technologies to build and where across the country to meet future energy demand. Those results were then downscaled to produce deployment estimates on federal lands.

In the central three scenarios, NREL estimates 51–84 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV, wind, and geothermal capacity are deployed by 2035 on federal lands. The total federal land area that is used for the three technologies ranges from 325,000 to 2 million acres. That is less than 0.5% of all federal land area, and a large fraction of the land could also have other uses.

In the highest deployment scenario where siting on nonfederal is more constrained, renewable energy deployment on federal lands increases to 231–270 GW by 2035.

How Much Renewable Resource Is Available for Development? NREL used a geospatial tool to model the technical potential—or maximum amount of available resource after considering siting constraints—for the three renewable technologies on federal lands. Technical potential can be measured in terms of land area or generation capacity.

NREL modeled the technical potential on land administered by five agencies: the Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Department of Defense, and U.S. Department of Energy. To ensure realistic siting in the model, NREL worked closely with these agencies throughout the study, including incorporating detailed geospatial data from BLM's Western Solar Plan.

“Each agency has its own mission priorities, which has implications for how its land is managed,” said Anthony Lopez, a senior researcher at NREL. “We determined the technical potential by limiting renewable energy development based on other land uses, such as recreation, historic preservation, conservation, and critical habitat. Even when factoring in the other uses, we found a lot of remaining land area would be suitable for renewable energy development.”

NREL estimates 5,750 GW of utility-scale PV could be generated on 44 million acres of federal land across the United States. Wind development has a potential capacity of 875 GW on 43 million acres. Hydrothermal systems could produce 130 GW on 12 million acres, and enhanced geothermal systems could produce 975 GW on 27 million acres. While these estimates represent the vast potential for renewable energy on federal lands, only a small percentage of the potential would be needed to meet future energy demands.

While NREL strives to ensure realistic siting in the modeling, there are still uncertainties. To account for these uncertainties, NREL developed a scenario to explore the implications of much more limited siting opportunities. In this scenario, potential wind capacity declines by 96% and solar capacity declines by 70%.

Where Do We Go from Here?
Because federal lands serve many public needs, any decision about their use involves trade-offs. Land administrators must balance various priorities, and they may have limited experience with renewable energy development. "Collaboration is crucial to support these agencies in navigating competing interests while integrating renewable energy development responsibly," said Melinda Marquis, energy systems researcher at NREL.

This is the first study that examines renewable energy development on federal lands for the entire contiguous United States—encompassing all federal lands and multiple renewable energy technologies—using a harmonized and high-resolution approach. Future analysis can assess the viability of specific areas or sites and should be updated as land administrators' priorities evolve.

"Through this research, we established productive dialogue with our five partner agencies," Marquis said. "We now have a technical framework for ongoing collaboration that will guide responsible energy development in the future."