• 随着勘探与生产公司放缓油田活动，对油井增产用水的需求也随之放缓。

• 二叠纪盆地是石油和天然气用水趋势的代表。

• 井数将决定油井增产用水的方向。

二叠纪盆地油井增产用水的变化率正在放缓。虽然 2018 年每井增产用水量平均增长了中个位数，但在 2015 年后大宗商品价格复苏期间，增长速度较两位数增长有所放缓。

值得注意的是，随着勘探与生产公司在 2019 年下半年释放钻机并放慢完工速度，到今年年底，总用水量的变化率可能会变为负值。如果这一趋势最终得以实现，这将意味着用水量首次下降。页岩时代油井增产的年耗水总量。为此，每口井的用水量需要趋于平缓（这似乎正在发生），并且年度完井数量也必须下降。后一种趋势将讲述磁带的故事。

主要关注点是二叠纪盆地，根据 Hart Energy 对FracFocus.org记录的检查，2018 年油井增产用水量达到 70.7 Bgal 。此外，当年的总消耗量比 2017 年增长了 85%。相比之下，2018 年二叠纪盆地用于油井增产的用水量达到 216,900 英亩英尺，大致相当于大都市环境中 430,000 名居民的年消耗量。

2014-2018 年二叠纪盆地的用水趋势令人震惊。米德兰盆地水力压裂的每口井用水量从 2014 年第一季度的每口井 2.95 毫米加仑上升到 2018 年第四季度的每口井 15.58 毫米加仑，增加了 428%，即每口井额外用水 12.6 毫米加仑。特拉华盆地也有类似的趋势。用水量从 2014 年第一季度的每口井 3.1 MMgal 增加到 2018 年第四季度的 13.17 MMgal，增长了 324%，即每口井额外增加了 10 MMgal。

数字背后是什么？更长的支管和更多的阶段需要更多的水。其次，该行业正在转向更大比例的滑溜水压裂增产，以将更大量的细目砂沿着更长的井眼输送。有细微差别。例如，特拉华州的横向长度正在趋于平缓，2018 年同比增长 13.7%，但 2019 年迄今为止增长了 9.3%。米德兰盆地也出现了类似的扁平化现象，该盆地的年横向长度在 2019 年平均仅增长了 3.5%。 2018 年与 2019 年持平。

两个盆地的水平井平均侧向长度在 2,835 m 至 2,896 m（9,300 ft 和 9,500 ft）之间，反映出平均侧向长度已缩小与前沿侧向井在井筒长度方面的差距的趋势。

与此同时，压裂增产中滑溜水的使用结果好坏参半，米德兰盆地滑溜水市场份额略有下降，而特拉华盆地份额不断增加。结果证实了增产市场的轶事评论，即横向长度的增长随着支撑剂消耗和级数的增长而趋于平缓。因此，水力压裂每口井的耗水量应趋于平稳。在这种情况下，井数将决定油井增产用水的方向。

2018 年，二叠纪盆地总计使用了 1.683 桶水用于油井增产。二叠纪盆地的水资源利用是一个价值 110 亿美元的产业，分为用于增产的注入水和用于再利用或处置的采出水。预计 2019 年二叠纪盆地的采出水量将达到 8.7 MMbbl/d
，即全年 3.2 Bbbl。无论影响油井增产用水的因素如何，这一趋势预计都会增加，值得单独审查。

• As E&P companies slow field activity, demand slows for the water used in well stimulation.

• The Permian Basin serves as a proxy for water use trends in oil and gas.

• Well count will determine the direction in water consumption for well stimulation.

The rate of change in water use for Permian Basin well stimulation is moderating. While annual water use per well for stimulation rose in the mid-single digits on average in 2018, the growth rate slowed from the low double-digit increases during the post-2015 recovery in commodity prices.

Significantly, that rate of change may turn negative for total water use by the end of the year as E&P companies release rigs and slow the pace of completions in the second half of 2019. Should this trend pan out, it would represent the first decline in aggregate annual water consumption for well stimulation in the shale era. For that to happen, water use per well would need to flatten, which appears to be underway, and the number of annual completions would have to drop. It is the latter trend that will tell the tale of the tape.

The main focus is in the Permian Basin where water use for well stimulation reached 70.7 Bgal in 2018, according to a Hart Energy examination of FracFocus.org records. Furthermore, aggregate consumption that year grew 85% over 2017. For comparison, 2018 Permian Basin water consumption for well stimulation reached 216,900- acre feet, which is loosely equivalent in annual consumption to 430,000 residents in a metropolitan setting.

Permian Basin water use trends in the 2014-2018 period are stunning. Water use per well for hydraulic fracturing in the Midland Basin rose from 2.95 MMgal per well in the first quarter of 2014 to 15.58 MMgal per well in the fourth quarter of 2018, a 428% gain, or an additional 12.6 MMgal per well. The Delaware Basin features similar trends. Water use grew from 3.1 MMgal per well in the first quarter of 2014 to 13.17 MMgal in the fourth quarter of 2018, a 324% gain, or an additional 10 MMgal per well.

What is behind the numbers? Longer laterals and more stages require more water. Secondly, the industry is moving to a greater percentage of slickwater fracture stimulation to transport larger volumes of finer mesh sand down longer wellbores. There is nuance. Lateral length, for example, is flattening in the Delaware, rising 13.7% in 2018 year over year but 9.3% year to date in 2019. Similar flattening has taken place in the Midland Basin, where annual lateral length on average grew just 3.5% in 2018 and is flat in 2019.

Both basins feature average lateral length between 2,835 m and 2,896 m (9,300 ft and 9,500 ft) for horizontal wells reflecting a trend where the average lateral has closed the gap on leading-edge laterals in terms of wellbore length.

At the same time, slickwater use in fracture stimulation shows mixed results with a slight decline in marketshare for slickwater in the Midland Basin and incremental share gains in the Delaware Basin. The results confirm anecdotal comments from the stimulation market that growth in lateral length is flattening along with proppant consumption and stage count. Thus, water consumption per well for hydraulic fracturing should flatten. In that case, well count will determine the direction in water consumption for well stimulation.

In aggregate, the Permian Basin used 1.683 Bbbl of water in 2018 for well stimulation. Permian Basin water use is an $11 billion industry divided between water injected for stimulation and produced water for reuse or disposal. Produced water is projected to reach 8.7 MMbbl/d in the Permian Basin in
2019, or 3.2 Bbbl for the year. That trend, which merits separate review, is projected to increase regardless of the forces impacting water use for well stimulation.