特朗普兑现了所有能源承诺:“黄金”时代——美国石油、天然气和液化天然气时代以及海上风电暂停生效

当局与政府

“化石燃料在,可再生能源在”似乎是描述新任美国总统能源政策的流行主题,因为人们对唐纳德·特朗普总统发起的改变的担忧不断加剧,他宣布国家能源紧急状态,暂时冻结海上风电租赁,撤销美国液化天然气(LNG)出口许可暂停,并计划实施其他措施来加强石油巨头在能源领域的作用,同时缩小甚至切断对一些清洁能源替代品的支持,而这些清洁能源替代品被认为是推动净零排放转型的关键。特朗普即将到来的石油和天然气时代会成为阻碍美国可再生能源发展的挫折,还是会成为激发绿色热情的强心剂?

LNG 运输船(仅供参考);来源:美国能源部

关键要点:

近海能源格局日新月异,这得益于迎接低碳未来的斗争以及在过去三年中不断出现的地缘政治和其他挑战中加强全球能源安全的斗争,这些挑战有可能摧毁我们所熟知的世界结构。无论石油和天然气行业面临何种挑战以及其增长道路上的障碍如何,它都会继续奋力前行。得益于一系列数百万甚至数十亿美元的交易,多个正在进行的项目创下了新的里程碑,并为新项目迈出发展的第一步奠定了基础。

美国海洋能源管理局准备通过一份项目环境影响声明(EIS)草案为墨西哥湾(GOM)近海油气租赁下一轮做好准备,美国国家海洋工业协会(NOIA)认为这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步,但美国海洋能源管理局仍借此机会敦促国会和特朗普政府重新评估和修改规模缩小的计划,该计划到2029年只会进行三次租赁销售。

NOIA 总裁Erik Milito表示: “显然,从墨西哥湾生产能源比全球市场依赖排放量更高、环保性能更差的外国能源更好。此外,我们敦促国会和新政府重新评估当前海上项目中仅有三次租赁销售的有限时间表,并采取措施恢复我们的租赁项目,以支持对美国项目的投资。”

“更完善的时间表将更好地反映墨西哥湾在我们的能源格局中不可或缺的作用,并支持能源开发和环境管理。NOIA 致力于与所有利益相关者合作,倡导维护墨西哥湾作为能源安全、经济进步和美国能源领导地位关键支柱的政策。”

关于海上能源的看法。

在特朗普正式宣布将在 2024 年当选总统后,NGSA 和液化天然气中心 (CLNG)都对美国政府从 2025 年开始改变能源政策的消息表示欢迎,这主要是因为人们相信特朗普将释放石油和天然气的潜力,同时促进可再生能源的增长,尽管有些人担心在他的统治下能源转型将受到抑制。此前,美国能源部 (DOE)表示,任何待定的向非自由贸易协定国家出口液化天然气的项目都需要与所有机构完成环境审查,然后才能获得批准。

鉴于液化天然气在众多能源行业脱碳路径分析中的重要性,包括前参议员玛丽·兰德里厄(D-LA)、前众议员蒂姆·瑞安(D-OH)、前众议员肯德里克·米克(D-FL) 和前费城市长迈克尔·纳特在内的自然盟友领导委员会认为拜登政府有关美国液化天然气出口终端的报告令人深感失望,认为这是对美国液化天然气出口的攻击。

“人们普遍认为,美国液化天然气出口增加不会对国内价格产生不利影响。事实上,我们有十年的联邦数据证明,即使美国已成为世界上最大的出口国,美国液化天然气出口增加也没有导致美国人的价格飙升或影响工业竞争力。根据最近的历史,拜登政府对价格上涨的虚假警报站不住脚。据天然盟友领导委员会称,十多年前专家们也使用过类似的恐吓策略,预测价格将上涨 50%,但实际上国内价格一直保持平稳。”

他们辩称,多份报告显示,增加天然气出口有利于减少全球排放并加强美国的国家安全。据称,限制美国液化天然气出口将使多达 9 亿个美国就业岗位面临风险,使俄罗斯和伊朗的环境保护措施减少,并让美国丧失缓解全球气候变化的领导地位,因为如果没有美国液化天然气,发展中国家将基本默认使用煤炭。

在 Twitter 上查看。

ICF 最近的一项研究指出,如果没有美国液化天然气,到 2022 年,全球将多排放 1.12 亿吨温室气体 (GHG),因为届时将使用煤炭和石油,而不是风能或太阳能。随着液化天然气暂停供应的结束,美国能源部已恢复正常业务,化石能源和碳管理办公室 (FECM) 已指示恢复审议根据《天然气法》向未与美国签订自由贸易协定 (FTA) 的国家出口美国液化天然气的待决申请。

液化天然气中心执行主任查理·里德尔 (Charlie Riedl ) 表示: “美国液化天然气出口是两党合作的成功案例,我们期待与当选总统特朗普及其新政府合作,首先解除能源部对液化天然气出口许可的“禁令”,从而释放更大的经济、气候和地缘政治利益。随着全球能源需求持续增长,美国液化天然气出口将在确保美国保持全球能源强国地位方面发挥关键作用。”

关于海上能源的看法。

当特朗普宣布提名北达科他州州长道格·伯格姆出任内政部长时,他强调伯格姆将被任命为新成立的国家能源委员会主席,该委员会被视为“能源沙皇”,使他能够指派各个机构承担能源责任,使他成为一名“全能型”能源州长。

特朗普相信他的能源议程有能力抑制通胀,他在透露伯格姆的权力将涵盖“涉及所有形式的美国能源的许可、生产、发电、分配、监管和运输的所有部门和机构”时也暗示了这种可能性。

在公开宣布削减繁文缛节的计划的同时,美国总统进一步阐述道:“该委员会将通过削减繁文缛节、加强私营部门对所有经济部门的投资、以及通过专注于创新而不是长期存在但完全不必要的监管来监督美国能源主导地位的道路。”

石油巨头是美国能源霸主地位的核心

特朗普重返白宫给包括能源领域在内的许多领域的国内和全球政治格局带来了重大变化,确保了美国海上能源发展的承诺不会动摇。在特朗普重返白宫之前,米利托强调了未来的关键立法议程,认为联邦政府的资金和通过 许可改革等关键立法应该是47任美国总统的首要任务,因为授权海上石油和天然气以及风能租赁销售对于确保更多确定性并将这些投资和项目留在美国境内至关重要。

虽然特朗普同意米利托关于石油和天然气发展的主张,但他并不支持加强海上或陆上风电。相反,新任美国总统明确表示,他的能源政策将终止向大型风电场出租,因为这些风电场破坏了我们的自然景观,无法为美国能源消费者服务,”白宫称,并补充道:“总统将通过结束拜登的气候极端主义政策、简化许可程序、审查并撤销所有对能源生产和使用施加不当负担的法规(包括非燃料矿物的开采和加工)来释放美国能源。”

通过宣布能源紧急状态,动用一切必要资源建设关键能源基础设施,特朗普无疑履行了他所说过的承诺,包括退出《巴黎气候协定》、实施美国优先”贸易政策,并启动海上风电冻结计划。这让人想起了前总统乔·拜登的液化天然气暂停计划,这要归功于暂时取消外大陆架(OCS)所有地区的海上风电租赁,直到总统备忘录被撤销,而这在联邦政府对风电项目的租赁和许可实践进行审查之前不太可能实现。

在 Twitter 上查看。

特朗普强调:“能源安全是全球竞争中日益重要的一个领域。为了伤害美国人民,敌对的国家和非国家外国行为者瞄准了我们的国内能源基础设施,将我们对外国能源的依赖武器化,并滥用其能力在国际大宗商品市场中造成剧烈波动。负担得起且可靠的国内能源供应是任何国家国家和经济安全的基本要求。”

“我们国家能源基础设施的完整性和扩展性——从东海岸到西海岸——是保护美国国家和经济安全的当务之急。联邦政府必须把美国人民的物质和经济福祉放在首位。”

液化天然气和海上风电互换位置:解冻一个,冻结另一个

特朗普总统已任命马克·克里斯蒂为联邦能源管理委员会 (FERC)主席,这并不令人意外,因为克里斯蒂于 2020 年 7 月获特朗普总统提名,并于 2020 年 11 月 30 日获美国参议院批准,于 2021 年 1 月 4 日开始担任 FERC 委员。加入 FERC 之前,克里斯蒂曾担任弗吉尼亚州公司委员会 (Virginia SCC) 主席,任职近 17 年。

在 Twitter 上查看。

虽然许多人对特朗普解除液化天然气出口限制的决定表示赞赏,但对海上风电冻结的看法则更为复杂。有些人认为该行业成本过高,另一些人则指出,让投入到这个价值数十亿美元的行业的所有资金白白浪费是一种耻辱,而另一些人则希望增加海上风电以缓解气候变化。

美国石油协会(API)总裁兼首席执行官迈克·萨默斯评论说: “美国人在投票箱中发出了明确的信息,特朗普总统在第一天就响应了这一号召——美国的能源主导地位将推动我们国家的经济和安全议程。”

“指导监管机构扩大资源获取 渠道、取消液化天然气禁令、简化许可流程并取消严厉的车辆规定将有助于为所有美国人创造更强大、更繁荣的能源未来。这是美国能源的新一天,我们赞扬特朗普总统迅速采取行动,开辟一条新道路,让美国石油和天然气受到欢迎,而不是受到限制。”

在 Twitter 上查看。

亚洲 天然气和能源协会 (ANGEA) 认为,美国恢复液化天然气出口审批对亚洲能源的未来而言是积极的一步,该协会首席执行官声称,天然气在为地球上最依赖煤炭的地区提供替代能源安全和发电方面发挥着关键作用。ANGEA 坚信,作为世界上最大的液化天然气出口国,美国可以为亚洲能源系统的脱碳做出重大的长期贡献。 

ANGEA 首席执行官 Paul Everingham表示: “ ANGEA 委托Wood Mackenzie 进行的一项最新研究发现,从现在到 2050 年,亚洲的液化天然气需求将增长近一倍,这主要得益于南亚和东南亚需求的大幅增长。该研究还预测,到 2035 年,美国将占全球液化天然气供应量的三分之一。然而,新兴亚洲的液化天然气需求增长和美国满足这一需求的能力都取决于‘禁令’的解除和未来几十年美国是否有足够的供应来缓和全球价格,并确保南亚和东南亚国家能够负担得起液化天然气。” 

特朗普总统今天发布恢复液化天然气出口审批的命令,将使关键项目得以继续进行,并为亚洲的决策者和政策制定者提供做出长期能源决策所需的确定性。亚洲新兴经济体寻求用更多的天然气发电取代高排放的煤炭,以追求合理且有计划的可再生能源增长。美国恢复液化天然气出口审批将有助于实现这一目标。” 

美国清洁能源公司称,风能是美国最大的可再生电力来源,提供全国 10.1% 的电力,全国有超过 73,000 台风力涡轮机,风力发电容量达到 153 吉瓦,使其成为美国第四大发电来源,足以为超过 4600 万美国家庭提供电力。风能行业为全美 50 个州的 30 多万个就业岗位提供支持,使美国在 2024 年避免了 3.51 亿公吨的二氧化碳排放。

白宫强调,虽然此次海上风电租赁和许可冻结不会影响撤销地区的现有租赁,但内政部长在必要时应与司法部长磋商,对终止或修改任何现有风能租赁的生态、经济和环境必要性进行“全面审查,确定取消租赁的任何法律依据,并通过总统经济政策助理向总统提交一份包含建议的报告”

正如清洁能源倡导者所指出的,美国新政府可以从保持海上风电的活跃中受益,因为它有可能为美国及其人民提供巨大的收入来源,同时进一步开发石油、天然气和液化天然气。能源专家表示,虽然太阳不会永远照耀,风也不会永远吹拂,但经常用来阻止或减缓可再生能源发展的间歇性问题在技术进步和电池存储改进面前被视为一个站不住脚的论点,尤其是当它们来自化石燃料行业时。

他们承认需要继续努力应对间歇性问题带来的挑战,但他们指出,这些应该被视为需要解决的任务,而不是阻碍太阳能和风能经济蓬勃发展的永久障碍,无论是陆上、海上还是两者兼而有之。对于能源鉴赏家来说,间歇性问题类似于自然灾害和暴风雨天气等外部事件,这些事件将停止海上石油和天然气开采,直到暴风雨过去,它们才会恢复正常。

在 Twitter 上查看。

尽管所有海上和陆上油井的碳氢化合物最终都会耗尽,但这一事实并没有阻止化石燃料的开采,因此,能源专家认为间歇性问题没有理由阻碍可再生能源的进一步增长。作为一个以拥有出色的商业头脑而自豪的人,特朗普很可能会看到让这些风车继续转动的好处,让清洁能源机器中的齿轮继续转动,并促进美国的经济增长和繁荣。

毕竟,全球范围内,实施“全覆盖”能源政策的几率非常大。当世界在能源困境上产生分歧时,这似乎是一个稳妥的选择,一些国家注重加强能源安全,另一些国家则优先考虑可持续性,而其他国家则力求在两个所谓的极端之间找到平衡点。

美国新任“能源沙皇”道格·伯格姆可能认为,依赖可再生能源将损害美国的国家安全,并使中国得以趁机而上。然而,由于中国在可再生能源和化石燃料方面都加大了赌注,美国为何应该放弃其中一种能源,以及此举将如何使美国受益,目前尚不明确。

在 Offshorewind 上查看。

从逻辑上讲,增加两种能源供应对美国有利,使其能够控制更多的全球能源市场,因此,推行上述所有能源政策似乎是确保特朗普所声称的能源主导地位的最佳途径。特朗普挑选的下一任美国能源部长克里斯·赖特似乎很欣赏“能源丰富”带来的优势,因此,他有兴趣“增加负担得起、可靠、安全的美国能源供应”。

这不仅包括石油和天然气、煤炭、核能和水力发电等最主要的能源供应来源,还包括风能和太阳能等美国能源库中增长最快的两种能源,以及地热能,后者被视为进一步拓展美国能源视野的有希望的投资。赖特本周早些时候在参议院能源和自然资源委员会的确认听证会上说过的最令人难忘的话之一是:“能源和气候是一个全球性问题,但美国应该成为领导者。我认为特朗普总统也坚定地赞同这一立场。”

虽然特朗普本人曾多次指出,“钻探,宝贝,钻探”是其能源政策的核心,石油和天然气占据主导地位,但美国候任总统认为实施“全方位”能源政策将带来好处,而赖特的言论则最能说明这一点。赖特明确表示,他将通过“改进所有能够改善人类生活和减少排放的能源技术,促进所有美国能源的发展。这三者相辅相成。”

他明确指出了自己打算重点关注的“三项当务之急”,包括释放美国国内外的能源潜力,恢复美国能源主导地位;确保美国在创新和技术突破方面引领世界;确保美国本土建设,扫除阻碍进步的障碍,因为他声称,联邦政策使得“项目很容易被叫停,而启动和完成项目却非常困难”。

赖特强调说:“特朗普总统和我一样对能源充满热情,如果得到确认,我将不懈努力地实施他的大胆议程,作为所有经济实惠、可靠和安全的美国能源的忠实管家。”

 米利托最近强调,近年来, 海上风电行业取得了 显著进步” ,使得德克萨斯州、 路易斯安那州、 北卡罗来纳州和 佛罗里达州等州的工人 能够积极协助建设海上风电项目,据说这些项目正在安全、负责任地进展,许多项目已经下水。 

美国准备全力发展能源基础设施

作为第47任美国总统,特朗普的举措预计将确保墨西哥湾的石油和天然气产量强劲增长,加大对碳捕获和储存的投资,并重新调整美国整体能源和关键矿产的识别、租赁、开发、生产、运输、精炼和发电能力,从而摆脱特朗普认为是上届政府遗产的“能源供应不足”状态,转向“可靠、多样化和负担得起的能源供应”。

特朗普进一步阐述道:“美国有潜力在国内利用其未开发的能源资源,并向国际盟友和伙伴出售可靠、多样化且价格合理的能源供应。这将为当前经济中被遗忘的美国人创造就业机会和经济繁荣,改善美国的贸易平衡,帮助我们的国家与敌对的外国势力竞争,加强与盟友和伙伴的关系,并支持国际和平与安全。因此,我们国家危险的能源状况对我们的外交政策造成了不必要且危险的限制。

“上届政府的政策使我们的国家陷入了国家紧急状态,能源供应极度不足且断断续续,电网也越来越不可靠,需要迅速果断采取行动。如果不立即采取补救措施,由于对能源和自然资源的需求很高,以推动下一代技术的发展,这种情况将在不久的将来急剧恶化。美国能否保持技术创新的领先地位取决于可靠的能源供应和国家电网的完整性。我们国家目前国内能源资源开发不足,使我们容易受到敌对外国势力的攻击,并对美国的繁荣和国家安全构成迫在眉睫且日益严重的威胁。”

美国总统认为,能源生产、运输、提炼和发电不足对美国经济、国家安全和外交政策构成“不寻常和非同寻常的威胁”,因此,他指示各行政部门和机构负责人确定并行使任何可用的合法紧急权力,以促进国内能源资源的识别、租赁、选址、生产、运输、提炼和发电。

与此相呼应,特朗普希望加快能源基础设施的建设,因此,美国政府机构应确定并使用“所有相关合法紧急状态和其他可用权力”,加快完成所有已获授权和拨款的基础设施、能源、环境和自然资源项目,并促进美国西海岸、美国东北部和阿拉斯加的能源供应、提炼和运输。

30天内,所有机构负责人以及陆军部长通过陆军主管土木工程的助理部长,确定为促进美国能源供应而计划采取的或可能采取的行动,这些行动可能需要根据陆军工程兵团或陆军工程兵团与环境保护署联合颁布的法规和全国许可进行紧急处理,并提供总结报告,列出这些行动。  

特朗普在其声明中明确表示,他希望各机构“在尽可能充分且符合适用法律的前提下”使用陆军工程兵团的紧急许可条款,以促进美国的能源供应。在提交初步总结报告后,各部门和机构被指示继续提供状态报告,列出已采取的行动、任何先前报告的计划或潜在行动的状态,以及在国家紧急状态期间至少每 30 天提供一次新行动。

关于《濒危物种法案》(ESA)紧急磋商条例,各机构负责人有30天的时间来确定可能受紧急情况磋商条例约束的促进美国能源供应的计划或潜在行动;在适用法律允许的最大范围内,使用ESA紧急情况磋商条例来促进能源供应;提供一份总结报告,列出此类行动,并在国家紧急状态期间至少每30天提供一次这些报告;

内政部长担任《濒危物种法案》委员会主席,负责至少每季度召集一次《濒危物种法案》委员会会议,除非法律另有规定,以审查和考虑任何机构、州长或任何申请豁免《濒危物种法案》第 7 条规定的义务的许可证或执照申请人所提交的任何合法申请。

此外,指示内政部长确保审查所有提交的材料,包括确定任何法律缺陷,以确保在收到材料后 20 天内作出初步决定,并能够在初步确定资格后 140 天内召集濒危物种法案委员会解决提交的材料。如果委员会没有待审的申请,它将确定国内能源基础设施的障碍,特别是因实施《ESA》或《海洋哺乳动物保护法》而产生的障碍,包括监管改革工作、物种清单和其他相关事项,以制定程序、监管和机构间改进措施。

环保人士认为特朗普的能源政策是“破坏气候”的石油和天然气宝藏

自从选举结果显示前美国总统唐纳德·特朗普成为第 47任美国总统以来,环保活动家们的反应十分愤怒,他们预测气候和能源转型之路将面临严峻的形势,清洁能源的发展被认为面临风险。最近美国总统竞选的结果似乎给 COP29 的参与者带来了沉重的负担,随着特朗普的回归,人们对美国退出巴黎协定的担忧迫在眉睫,让世界各地的气候活动家、环保组织和支持气候行动的政治家们产生了一种气候厄运即将来临的感觉。

如今这位前美国总统重返白宫,他们的担忧和末日预言是否会成真还有待观察,然而,石油和天然气在特朗普能源议程中的主导地位引发了气候行动爱好者和零排放未来支持者的恐慌,同时也激发了他们阻止将可再生能源边缘化的决心。气候活动家和环保人士对特朗普对化石燃料的立场以及扩大这些能源生产的决心感到不满,这已经不是什么秘密了。

因此,日出运动的多名成员决定干扰赖特的听证会,以确保他们的担忧得到倾听。尽管许多人最终被捕,但赖特并没有忽视他们的存在,而是选择以真正外交的方式承认他们提出的担忧,倡导一种平衡的做法。

“你必须明白,没有肮脏能源和清洁能源之分。所有能源都是不同的,它们都有不同的权衡。不同的人对权衡有不同的权重或评价。不同的地理位置或地点的气候对这种能源比对那种能源更有利,”赖特外交地解释道,并补充道:

“因此,这是一个复杂的对话,这意味着很难让人们分享更广泛的观点。我认为,我们在今天坐在听证室里的那些充满热情、善意、优秀的人身上看到了这一点。”

根据美国能源信息署(EIA)的数据,海上石油产量占美国原油总产量的14%,即每天近200万桶石油,因此,API声称,到2040年,更加强劲的海上石油和天然气开发可以为政府带来超过80亿美元的额外收入。这些海上资源被视为对美国能源安全的重大贡献,据说其生产 的石油碳强度是 世界上最低的。

自从特朗普总统宣布美国退出《巴黎气候协定》、誓言停止风电租赁并指示联邦机构开始撤销拜登的气候、能源和污染减排政策以来,这些举措在气候活动团体看来破坏了关键的环境保护措施,削弱了清洁能源投资。

公民气候计划主任 戴维·阿库什 (David Arkush ) 指出: “特朗普竭尽全力,以牺牲美国人民的利益为代价,让化石燃料亿万富翁伙伴致富,以此表明他的优先事项。这些命令将提高美国家庭的能源价格,让我们更加生病,让我们的社区陷入困境,并使美国在未来能源竞争中落后。”

“在未来的日子里,特朗普可能会采取更多行动,攻击那些旨在提高能源效率和更清洁、更便宜的可再生能源以及保护我们的空气和水免受污染的温和政策。特朗普的行动将对美国家庭和宜居气候产生可怕的后果。”

特朗普的决定遭到气候行动运动 (CAC) 成员的抨击,这些组织包括美国进步中心、地球正义、环境保护基金、环境保护选民联盟、自然资源保护委员会、塞拉俱乐部、忧思科学家联盟和 WEACT 环境正义。他们认为,共和党领导人的举动将危及社区的健康和安全,增加成本,并使美国家庭更容易受到日益极端的天气事件的影响。

这些代表全美 1500 多万民众的组织和团体强调:“全美人民不希望 出现 超级风暴、致命的野火、干旱和洪水,以及这些极端天气事件给全美社区造成的数千亿 美元 的损失。然而,特朗普总统废除污染保护措施的计划和退出巴黎气候协定的决定恰恰会造成这样的后果。”

“他们不希望能源账单上涨,也不希望在石油和天然气行业 实现利润最大化的同时,阻碍清洁能源就业增长的历史性步伐 ,但这正是特朗普总统承诺的 “钻井,宝贝,钻井” 及其政府破坏新的海上风电和电器效率措施的努力所要做的。我们的组织将继续坚定地支持气候保护,并将反对特朗普总统损害我们的环境、健康、经济和气候的计划。”

公民气候计划远非唯一一个认为特朗普行政行动标志着美国能源和气候政策“黑暗转折”的组织,78个来自欧洲和其他国家的民间社会组织向美国能源部提交了一封信,以回应其2024年液化天然气出口研究,警告不要扩大他们所说的“30个液化天然气出口”,要求能源部拒绝所有未来和待决的液化天然气出口扩张许可。

虽然这些团体认为美国能源部的研究提出了一些较弱和较强的论据,后者表明液化天然气扩张将增加美国人的成本,其扩张将对气候产生相当大的影响,并承认至少对社区产生了一些影响,但这封信强调了该组织对天然气供应链对人权的负面影响的担忧,特别是对受水力压裂和液化天然气出口影响的社区。签署者强调,跨大西洋能源安全在于能源效率和充足性以及可再生能源,而不是欧盟-美国液化天然气贸易规模的扩大。

在思考特朗普第二任期的影响时,Rystad Energy 指出,世界正准备迎接特朗普 2.0 时代,美国总统和参议院选举都对特朗普和共和党有利,因为共和党在众议院保持多数席位,使他们能够完全控制国会。能源市场情报机构将特朗普重返白宫描绘为放松管制、加快许可速度和结束拜登政府液化天然气暂停的标志。

“特朗普推动增加液化天然气出口的举措可能会与贸易紧张局势发生冲突,因为重新征收关税可能会导致中国需求减少。这将产生负面影响,因为美国液化天然气项目依赖于确保中国持续的需求。尽管存在这些风险,特朗普政府仍可能为美国能源行业带来重大利益。通过取消监管壁垒和快速审批许可证,特朗普可以帮助缓解基础设施瓶颈并支持美国液化天然气出口的长期增长。此外,他的政策可能会为运营商创造更有利的环境,改善市场情绪并鼓励更多资本流入能源项目,” Rystad 强调道。

虽然该公司指出,在共和党控制的国会下,通胀削减法案面临潜在挑战,但该公司认为,不太可能立即废除 IRA 低碳能源条款下的关键税收抵免,如 CCUS(45Q)、清洁能源制造和脱碳(45X、48C)、技术中立的清洁电力(48E、45Y)和清洁氢能(45V),因为这些计划得到了两党的支持,并使共和党领导的州受益匪浅。

Rystad 总结道:“共和党主导的经济可能会优先考虑供需成本动态,支持低成本生产途径并促进需求增长,这最终可能会支持清洁技术的发展。政府宣传中可能会忽略有关全球变暖的论述,就像特朗普政府期间的情况一样,重点转向创造就业机会和经济增长,将其作为清洁技术进步的主要驱动力。”

“预计州一级的政策将与联邦政策有所不同,沿海各州将维持各自的清洁能源议程。在全国范围内,美国可能会对以气候为重点的举措采取更反对的立场。”

原文链接/Offshore_Energy

Trump makes good on all his energy promises: ‘Golden’ US oil, gas, & LNG age and offshore wind pause in effect

Authorities & Government

In with fossil fuels, out with renewables seems to be the prevailing theme running on a loop to describe the newly sworn-in U.S. President’s energy policy, as fears continue to mount over the changes President Donald Trump has set in motion by declaring a national energy emergency, a temporary freeze on offshore wind leasing, reversal of the U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permitting pause, and others he plans to implement to bolster Big Oil’s role in the energy sector while narrowing down and even cutting off support for some clean energy alternatives considered crucial to power the transformation to net zero. Will Trump’s upcoming oil and gas era be a setback, holding back U.S. renewables’ progress, or a shot in the arm galvanizing greener zest?

LNG tanker (for illustration purposes); Source: U.S. Department of Energy

Key takeaways:

The offshore energy landscape is becoming more dynamic day in and day out, driven by the fight to usher in a low-carbon future and the struggle to fortify global energy security amid geopolitical and other challenges that have risen over the past three years and threaten to tear down the very fabric of the world as we know it. Regardless of the challenges the oil and gas industry is forced to contend with and the obstacles in its growth path, it keeps soldiering on. Multiple ongoing projects hit new milestones and set the stage for new ones to take their first steps toward development thanks to a series of multimillion—and billion-dollar deals.

While the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management‘s move to set the stage for the next oil and gas leasing round to be held for offshore acreage in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) with a draft programmatic environmental impact statement (EIS) was seen as a step in the right direction by National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA), it still took the opportunity to urge Congress and the Trump administration to reevaluate and revise the scaled-back program, which comes with only three lease sales up to 2029.

Erik Milito, NOIA’s President, said: “It’s clearly better to produce our energy from the Gulf of Mexico than for the global market to rely upon foreign sources with higher emissions and weaker environmental performance. Furthermore, we urge Congress and the incoming administration to reassess the limited schedule of only three lease sales in the current offshore program and take steps to restore our leasing program to bolster investment in U.S. projects.

“A more robust schedule would better reflect the Gulf’s indispensable role in our energy landscape and support both energy development and environmental stewardship. NOIA is committed to working with all stakeholders to advocate for policies that uphold the Gulf of Mexico as a key pillar in energy security, economic progress, and total U.S. energy leadership.”

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Both the NGSA and the Center for LNG (CLNG) welcomed the news of a change in the U.S. administration’s energy policies from 2025 after the 2024 election was officially called for President Trump, primarily because of the belief that Trump will unleash oil and gas while also enabling renewables growth, even though some fear that the energy transition will get stifled under his rule. Previously, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said environmental reviews needed to be finished with all agencies before any pending LNG export projects to non-free trade agreement countries would get the go-ahead.

Given the level of importance assigned to LNG in numerous energy sector decarbonization pathway analyses, the Natural Allies Leadership Council, including former Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA), former Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH), former Congressman Kendrick Meek (D-FL), and former Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, found the Biden Administration’s report concerning U.S. liquefied natural gas export terminals “deeply disappointing,” perceiving it as an assault on the exportation of U.S. LNG.

“There is a strong consensus that increased U.S. LNG exports will not adversely impact domestic prices. In fact, we have a decade of federal data proving that rising U.S. LNG exports have not caused price spikes for Americans or impacted industrial competitiveness, even as the United States has become the world’s largest exporter. The Biden Administration’s false alarms of rising prices don’t hold up based on recent history. Experts used similar scare tactics over a decade ago, projecting prices would rise by 50%, but in fact domestic prices have remained flat,” according to the Natural Allies Leadership Council.

They argue that multiple reports have shown the benefits of increased natural gas exports in reducing global emissions and strengthening America’s national security. The limiting of U.S. LNG exports is said to risk up to 900,00 American jobs, empower Russia and Iran with fewer environmental safeguards, and abdicate U.S. leadership on mitigating global climate change, as developing countries will largely default to coal without U.S. LNG.

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A recent ICF study noted the world would have seen 112 million more tons of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) without U.S. LNG in 2022, as coal and oil would have been used rather than wind or solar. As the LNG pause has ended, the U.S. Department of Energy has returned to regular order of business, with the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) directed to resume consideration of pending applications to export American LNG to countries without a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States under the Natural Gas Act.

Charlie Riedl, Executive Director of the Center for LNG, said: “U.S. LNG exports are a bipartisan success story, and we look forward to working with Presidentelect Trump and his new administration to unlock even greater economic, climate, and geopolitical benefits by, first and foremost, lifting the Department of Energy’s ‘pause’ on LNG export permits. As global energy demand continues to grow, U.S. LNG exports will play a critical role in ensuring the United States remains a global energy powerhouse.”

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When Trump announced Doug Burgum, North Dakota Governor, as the nominee to lead the Interior Department, he underlined that Burgum would be named Chair of a newly created National Energy Council, seen as an ‘energy czar’ role, which would enable him to task various agencies with energy responsibilities, allowing him to become an ‘all-of-the-above’ energy governor.

Trump, who believes his energy agenda has the power to curb inflation, also hinted at this possibility when he disclosed that Burgum’s authority will cover “all Departments and Agencies involved in the permitting, production, generation, distribution, regulation, transportation, of ALL forms of American Energy.”

While openly stating plans to cut the red tape, the U.S. President further elaborated: “This Council will oversee the path to U.S. ENERGY DOMINANCE by cutting red tape, enhancing private sector investments across all sectors of the Economy, and by focusing on INNOVATION over longstanding, but totally unnecessary, regulation.”

Big Oil at the heart of American energy dominance

Trump’s return to the White House has brought significant shifts in the domestic and global political landscape in many spheres, including the energy domain, ensuring the promise of a boost in American offshore energy remains unwavering. Before Trump stepped back into the White House, Milito emphasized the critical legislative agenda ahead, identifying the funding of the federal government and passing key legislation, such as permitting reform, as areas that should be the 47th U.S. President’s top priorities, as mandating offshore oil and gas and wind lease sales is crucial to ensuring more certainty and keeping these investments and projects within the United States.

While Trump agrees with Milito on the oil and gas boost, he is not a fan of bolstering offshore or onshore wind power. Quite the contrary, the new U.S. President made it abundantly clear that his energy policies would end leasing to massive wind farms that “degrade our natural landscapes and fail to serve American energy consumers,” according to the White House, which added: “The President will unleash American energy by ending Biden’s policies of climate extremism, streamlining permitting, and reviewing for rescission all regulations that impose undue burdens on energy production and use, including mining and processing of non-fuel minerals.”

By declaring an energy emergency to use all necessary resources to build critical energy infrastructure, Trump has certainly done what he said he would do including withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord, putting the America First Trade Policy in action, and setting off an offshore wind freeze, reminiscent of former President Joe Biden’s LNG pause, thanks to a temporary withdrawal of all areas on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) from offshore wind leasing until the presidential memorandum is revoked, which is not likely to come until a review of the federal government’s leasing and permitting practices has been carried out for wind projects.

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Trump highlighted: “Energy security is an increasingly crucial theater of global competition. In an effort to harm the American people, hostile state and non-state foreign actors have targeted our domestic energy infrastructure, weaponized our reliance on foreign energy, and abused their ability to cause dramatic swings within international commodity markets. An affordable and reliable domestic supply of energy is a fundamental requirement for the national and economic security of any nation.

“The integrity and expansion of our Nation’s energy infrastructure —- from coast to coast -— is an immediate and pressing priority for the protection of the United States’ national and economic security.  It is imperative that the Federal government puts the physical and economic wellbeing of the American people first.”

LNG and offshore wind switch places: Unfreezing one to freeze the other

President Trump has named Mark Christie as Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), which is not surprising given that Christie began his term as a FERC Commissioner on January 4, 2021, after being nominated by President Trump in July 2020 and confirmed by the U.S. Senate on November 30, 2020. Before joining FERC, Christie was the Chairman of the Virginia State Corporation Commission (Virginia SCC), on which he served for nearly 17 years.

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While many have applauded Trump’s decision to lift the restrictions on LNG exports, the sentiment about the offshore wind freeze is more complex. While some say the industry is too expensive, others point out that it would be a shame to let all the money poured into the multibillion-dollar industry go to waste, while others want more offshore wind to mitigate climate change.

Mike Sommers, American Petroleum Institute (API), President and CEO, commented: “Americans sent a clear message at the ballot box, and President Trump is answering the call on Day One—U.S. energy dominance will drive our nation’s economic and security agenda.

“Directing regulators to expand access to resources, lift the LNG pause, streamline permitting processes and roll back heavy-handed vehicle mandates will help deliver a stronger, more prosperous energy future for all Americans. This is a new day for American energy, and we applaud President Trump for moving swiftly to chart a new path where U.S. oil and natural gas are embraced, not restricted.”

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The Asia Natural Gas and Energy Association (ANGEA) sees the resumption of LNG export approvals in the United States as a positive step for Asia’s energy future while its CEO claims that natural gas has a critical role to play in providing an alternative source of energy security and power generation for the most coal-reliant region on the planet. ANGEA is convinced that the United States, as the world’s largest exporter of LNG, can make significant, long-term contributions to decarbonizing the energy systems of Asia. 

Paul Everingham, ANGEA’s CEO, remarked: A recent study by Wood Mackenzie, commissioned by ANGEA, found that Asia’s LNG demand would nearly double between now and 2050, driven largely by significant growth in demand from South and Southeast Asia. The study also forecast that the United States would make up a third of global LNG supply by 2035. However, both LNG demand growth from emerging Asia and the ability of the US to meet it, were contingent on the ‘pause’ being lifted and sufficient US supply being available in coming decades to moderate global prices and ensure that LNG was affordable for nations in South and Southeast Asia. 

Today’s issuing by President Trump of an order to resume processing of LNG export approvals will enable key projects to proceed and give decision and policy makers in Asia the certainty they require to make long-term decisions about energy. Emerging economies in Asia seek to switch out high-emitting coal use for more gas-fired power as they pursue sensible and well-planned growth in renewable energy sources. The resumption of LNG export approvals in the US will help make this a reality.” 

According to American Clean Power, wind is the largest source of renewable electricity generation in the United States, providing 10.1% of the country’s electricity with over 73,000 wind turbines across the country putting wind power capacity at 153 GW, making it the fourth-largest source of electricity generation capacity in the country, which is enough to serve the equivalent of over 46 million American homes. The wind industry, which supports over 300,000 American jobs across all 50 states, has enabled the U.S. to avoid 351 million metric tons of CO2 emissions in 2024.

While this offshore wind leasing and permitting freeze does not affect existing leases in the withdrawn areas, the Secretary of the Interior, in consultation with the Attorney General as needed, has been instructed to conduct “a comprehensive review of the ecological, economic, and environmental necessity of terminating or amending any existing wind energy leases, identifying any legal bases for such removal, and submit a report with recommendations to the President, through the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy,” underlined the White House.

As clean energy advocates have pointed out, the new U.S. administration could benefit from keeping offshore wind active, as it has the potential to provide America and its people with huge streams of revenue alongside further oil, gas, and LNG development. While the sun will not always shine and the wind will not always blow, the intermittency issues that are often used to stop or slow down the development of renewable sources are perceived as a weak argument in the face of technological advancement and battery storage improvements that continue to be made, especially when they come from the fossil fuels industry, according to energy experts.

While acknowledging the need to continue to work on coming to grips with the challenges of navigating the intermittency woes, they point out that these should be seen as tasks to be solved and not as permanent roadblocks to booming solar and wind economy be it onshore, offshore, or both. For energy connoisseurs, intermittency issues are similar to external events, such as natural disasters and stormy weather, which will stop offshore oil and gas extraction until the storm passes before they return to business as usual.

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Even though all offshore and onshore wells will run out of hydrocarbon juice at some point and become depleted, this fact has not stopped fossil fuel extraction, thus, energy experts see no reason for intermittency issues to stand in the way of further renewable energy growth. As someone who prides himself on having great business acumen, Trump will likely see the benefit in keeping those windmills spinning, enabling the cogs in the clean energy machinery to continue turning and bolstering America’s economic growth and prosperity.

After all, the global odds are heavily stacked in favor of an ‘all-of-the-above’ energy policy, which seems like a sure bet when the world is divided on the energy dilemma conundrum, with some countries focusing on boosting energy security while others prioritize sustainability, and the rest strive for a balancing act to find the middle ground between the two so-called extremes.

The new U.S. ‘energy czar,’ Doug Burgum, may have the impression that reliance on renewables will derail U.S. national security and enable China to score, however, as the Asian country is upping the ante on both renewables and fossil fuels, the argument for the reason why the U.S. should give up on one of these energy sources and how such a move would benefit the U.S. is not clear.

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As logic dictates boosting both sources of supply would work in America’s favor, enabling it to control more of the global energy market, pursuing the all-of-the-above energy policy appears to be the best way forward to ensure the energy dominance Trump claims to be after. Chris Wright, Trump’s pick for the role of the next U.S. Energy Secretary, seemingly appreciates the advantages that come with “energy abundance,” thus, he is interested in “growing the supply of affordable, reliable, secure American energy.”

This does not only encompass oil and gas, coal, nuclear, and hydropower as the most dominant sources of energy supply, but also expands to entail wind and solar as the two fastest growing additions to the U.S. energy arsenal, and geothermal, which is viewed as a promising play to expand further America’s energy horizons. Among the most memorable lines that Wright uttered during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee earlier this week was: “Energy and climate is a global problem, but America should be the leader. And I think President Trump is firmly aligned with that position as well.”

While Trump himself has pointed out on numerous occasions that ‘drill, baby, drill’ is at the heart of his energy policy in which oil and gas reign supreme, the most significant indicator that the U.S. President-elect sees the benefits of implementing an ‘all-of-the-above’ energy policy came from Wright when he clearly stated that he would promote all sources of American energy, by “improving all energy technologies that can better human lives and reduce emissions. They go together.”

He pinpoints ‘three immediate tasks’ on which he intends to focus, encapsulating all it takes to unleash American energy at home and abroad to restore U.S. energy dominance; ensuring America leads the world in innovation and technology breakthroughs; and making sure things are built in America and removing barriers to progress, as he claims that Federal policies make it “too easy to stop projects and very hard, hard to start and complete projects.”

“President Trump shares my passion for energy and if confirmed, I will work tirelessly to implement his bold agenda as an unabashed steward for all sources of affordable, reliable and secure American energy,” emphasized Wright.

Milito recently emphasized that the offshore wind sector saw remarkable advancements in recent years, enabling workers in states like TexasLouisianaNorth Carolina, and Florida to actively assist in building offshore wind projects, which are said to be progressing safely and responsibly, with many “already having steel in the water.” 

US poised to go all out on energy infrastructure

The 47th U.S. President’s actions are expected to ensure robust oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, ramping up the burgeoning carbon capture and storage investments and recalibrating the overall energy and critical minerals identification, leasing, development, production, transportation, refining, and generation capacity of the United States, so that it goes from “far too inadequate” state of play, which Trump sees as the legacy of the previous administration, to “a reliable, diversified, and affordable supply of energy.”

Trump elaborated: “The United States has the potential to use its unrealized energy resources domestically, and to sell to international allies and partners a reliable, diversified, and affordable supply of energy.  This would create jobs and economic prosperity for Americans forgotten in the present economy, improve the United States’ trade balance, help our country compete with hostile foreign powers, strengthen relations with allies and partners, and support international peace and security. Accordingly, our Nation’s dangerous energy situation inflicts unnecessary and perilous constraints on our foreign policy.

“The policies of the previous administration have driven our Nation into a national emergency, where a precariously inadequate and intermittent energy supply, and an increasingly unreliable grid, require swift and decisive action. Without immediate remedy, this situation will dramatically deteriorate in the near future due to a high demand for energy and natural resources to power the next generation of technology. The United States’ ability to remain at the forefront of technological innovation depends on a reliable supply of energy and the integrity of our Nation’s electrical grid.  Our Nation’s current inadequate development of domestic energy resources leaves us vulnerable to hostile foreign actors and poses an imminent and growing threat to the United States’ prosperity and national security.”

The U.S. President considers insufficient energy production, transportation, refining, and generation as “an unusual and extraordinary threat” to the American economy, national security, and foreign policy, thus, he has instructed the heads of executive departments and agencies to identify and exercise any lawful emergency authorities available to them to facilitate the identification, leasing, siting, production, transportation, refining, and generation of domestic energy resources.

In line with this, Trump wants to expedite the delivery of energy infrastructure. Therefore, U.S. government agencies are to identify and use “all relevant lawful emergency and other authorities available to them” to speed up the completion of all authorized and appropriated infrastructure, energy, environmental, and natural resources projects and facilitate the supply, refining, and transportation of energy in and through the West Coast of the United States, Northeast of the United States, and Alaska.

Within 30 days, the heads of all agencies, as well as the Secretary of the Army, acting through the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works are to identify planned or potential actions to facilitate America’s  energy supply that may be subject to emergency treatment under the regulations and nationwide permits promulgated by the Corps, or jointly by the Corps and EPA, and provide a summary report, listing such actions.  

Trump has been very clear in his that he wants agencies to use “to the fullest extent possible and consistent with applicable law” the emergency Army Corps permitting provisions to facilitate the U.S. energy supply. Following the submission of the initial summary report, each department and agency has been directed to continue the practice of providing a status report to list actions that have been taken, the status of any previously reported planned or potential actions, and any new ones at least every 30 days for the duration of the national emergency.

Regarding theEndangered Species Act (ESA) emergency consultation regulations, the heads of all agencies have been given 30 days to identify planned or potential actions to facilitate the U.S. energy supply that may be subject to the regulation on consultations in emergencies; use to the maximum extent permissible under applicable law, the ESA regulation on consultations in emergencies to facilitate the energy supply; provide a summary report, listing such actions, and keep providing these reports at least every 30 days for the duration of the national emergency;

The Secretary of the Interior, acting as Chairman of the Endangered Species Act Committee, is tasked with convening the Endangered Species Act Committee at least quarterly, unless otherwise required by law, to review and consider any lawful applications submitted by an agency, the Governor of a State, or any applicant for a permit or license who submits for exemption from obligations imposed by Section 7 of the ESA.

Furthermore, the Secretary of the Interior is instructed to ensure a review of all submissions including identification of any legal deficiencies to ensure an initial determination within 20 days of receipt and the ability to convene the Endangered Species Act Committee to resolve the submission within 140 days of such initial determination of eligibility. If the committee has no pending applications for review, it will identify obstacles to domestic energy infrastructure, specifically deriving from the implementation of the ESA or the Marine Mammal Protection Act, to include regulatory reform efforts, species listings, and other related matters to develop procedural, regulatory, and interagency improvements.

Environmentalists deem Trump’s energy policy as ‘climate-wrecking’ oil & gas bonanza

Since the election results showed that the former U.S. president, Donald Trump, is the 47th U.S. president, reactions run the gauntlet of environmental activists’ ire, predicting dire straits for the climate and the energy transition journey, with clean energy progress perceived to be at risk. The results of the recent U.S. presidential run seemed to weigh heavily on participants at COP29, as fears over a U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement loomed on the horizon with Trump’s return, creating a sense of impending climate doom among climate activists, environmental organizations, and climate action championing politicians around the world.

Whether their worries and doomsday predictions will come to pass now that the former U.S. president is back in the White House remains to be seen, however, the domination of oil and gas in Trump’s energy agenda has sparked panic among climate action enthusiasts and proponents of a zero-emission future while spurring determination to thwart attempts to sideline renewables. It is no secret that climate campaigners and environmental activists are not happy with Trump’s stance on fossil fuels and his determination to expand the production of these sources.

Therefore, multiple members of Sunrise Movement decided to disrupt Wright’s hearing to ensure their concerns would be heard. While many of them ended up being arrested, Wright did not ignore their presence and opted to acknowledge the concerns being raised in a truly diplomatic fashion, advocating for a balanced approach.

“You have to understand that there isn’t dirty energy and clean energy. All energies are different, and they all have different trade-offs. Different people have different weights or valuations of trade-offs. Different geographies or locations have climates more favorable to this energy versus that energy,” Wright diplomatically explained, adding:

“So it’s a complicated dialog, which means it’s not easy to get people to share this broader perspective on it. I think we’re seeing a little bit of that in passionate, well-meaning, wonderful people that have been sitting in the hearing room today.”

Based on the data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), offshore production accounts for 14% of total U.S. crude oil production, or nearly 2 million barrels of oil per day, thus, API claims that a more robust offshore oil and natural gas development could generate over $8 billion in additional government revenue by 2040. These offshore resources, which are seen as significant contributions to America’s energy security, are said to generate among the lowest carbon-intensive barrels produced anywhere in the world.

Since President Trump announced the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, vowed to halt wind power leases, and instructed federal agencies to begin the process of undoing Biden’s climate, energy, and pollution reduction policies, these moves undermine key environmental protections and undercut clean energy investments in the eyes of climate activist groups.

David Arkush, Director of Public Citizen’s Climate Program, noted: “Trump is making his priorities clear by pulling every lever he can to enrich his fossil fuel billionaire buddies at the expense of the American people. These orders will raise energy prices for American families, make us sicker, put our communities to the torch, and put the United States way behind in the race for the future of energy.

“In the days to come, Trump will likely take additional actions that attack the modest policies to promote energy efficiency and cleaner, cheaper renewable power and protect our air and water from polluters. Trump’s actions will have dire consequences for American families and a livable climate.”

Trump’s decisions have come under fire from members of the Climate Action Campaign (CAC) – Center for American Progress, Earthjustice, Environmental Defense Fund, League of Conservation Voters, Natural Resources Defense Council, Sierra Club, Union of Concerned Scientists, and WEACT for Environmental Justice. They believe that the Republican leader’s moves will compromise the health and safety of communities, increase costs, and leave American families more vulnerable to increasingly extreme weather events.

These organizations and groups, which represent more than 15 million people across the United States, underlined: “People across this country don’t want more superstorms, deadly wildfires, droughts and floods, and the hundreds of billions of dollars that these extreme weather events have cost Americans in communities across the country. Yet President Trump’s plan to dismantle pollution protections and his decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement would do just that.

“And they don’t want higher energy bills or to throw the brakes on the historic pace of clean energy job growth while the oil and gas industry maximizes its profits, but that’s exactly what President Trump’s promise to ‘drill, baby, drill’ and his administration’s effort to undermine new offshore wind and appliance efficiency measures would do. Our organizations will continue to stand strong for climate protections and will fight President Trump’s plans that would harm our environment, our health, our economy, and our climate.”

Public Citizen’s Climate Program is far from alone in its beliefs that Trump’s executive actions mark a “dark turn” for U.S. energy and climate policies, as 78 civil society organizations from Europe and beyond submitted a letter to the U.S. Department of Energy in response to its 2024 LNG export study, warning against the expansion of what they describe as “dirty LNG exports,” demanding from the DOE to reject all future and pending permits for LNG export expansion.

While the DOE study is perceived by these groups to make some weaker and some stronger cases, the latter demonstrating that LNG expansion will raise costs for Americans, how its expansion will have a considerable climate impact, and the acknowledgment of at least some community impacts, the letter highlights the group’s concerns about the negative human right impacts along the gas supply chain, particularly for communities impacted by fracking and the export of LNG. The signatories underline that transatlantic energy security lies in energy efficiency and sufficiency and renewables, not in super-sizing EU-US LNG trade.

While pondering the implications of Trump’s second term in office, Rystad Energy pinpointed the ongoing recalibration as the world was bracing for a Trump 2.0 era, with the U.S. presidency and Senate races called in favor of Trump and Republicans as the party maintained its majority in the House of Representatives, enabling them to hold full control over Congress. The energy market intelligence player paints Trump’s return to the White House as a sign of a shift toward deregulation, faster permitting, and an end to the Biden administration’s LNG pause.

“Trump’s push for growing LNG exports could clash with trade tensions, as the reintroduction of tariffs could lead to reduced demand from China. This would have negative consequences, as US LNG projects rely on securing consistent demand from China. Despite these risks, the Trump administration could still bring major benefits to the US energy sector. By rolling back regulatory barriers and fast-tracking permits, Trump could help ease infrastructure bottlenecks and support long-term US LNG export growth. Additionally, his policies would likely foster a more favorable environment for operators, improving market sentiment and encouraging further capital inflow into energy projects,” underlined Rystad.

While the company outlines that the Inflation Reduction Act faces potential challenges under a Republican-controlled Congress, it believes it unlikely that there will be an immediate repeal of key tax credits under the IRA’s low-carbon energy provisions such as CCUS (45Q), clean energy manufacturing and decarbonization (45X, 48C), technology-neutral clean electricity (48E, 45Y), and clean hydrogen (45V), as these programs enjoy bipartisan support and disproportionately benefit Republican-led states.

Rystad concluded: “A Republican-led economy may prioritize supply-demand cost dynamics, favoring lower-cost production pathways and fostering demand growth, which may ultimately support clean technology developments. The narrative around global warming might be sidelined in government communications, as seen during Trump’s administration, shifting the focus to job creation and economic growth as primary drivers of cleantech advancement.

“State-level policies are expected to diverge from federal communications, with coastal states maintaining their clean energy agendas. Nationally, the US may adopt a more oppositional stance on climate-focused initiatives.”