对于页岩油生产商来说，2023 年是新闻流量具有里程碑意义的一年。从主题上看，公共投资者继续关注自由现金的产生和股东的资本回报，同时考虑库存深度的未来。上市公司大肆宣扬较长横向设计的好处，因为在二叠纪页岩区观察到的平均横向长度增加了 3%，Eagle Ford 增加了 8%，Bakken 增加了 1%。 

巧合的是，在 2021 年至 2022 年每英尺生产率相对大幅下降之后，美国所有页岩油区的每英尺石油生产率实际上几年来首次增长了 3%。维护计划方面，市场对美国页岩油增长的反应相对意外，截至第三季度，同比增长 9%，而钻机数量年初至今平均下降约 5%，自去年同期以来下降了 20%。年初。

归根结底，这种动态大约有一半是由私人市场的增长来解释的，因为运营商可能希望向公众货币化，同时也受益于改善的油井性能、周期时间和改进的油井设计。事实上，页岩油运营商在面临库存寿命有限的情况下提高了运营效率。

大多数公众投资者在权衡收购风险的同时，都仔细审视了页岩油库存深度，并对资本状况高回报的长期可持续性提出了质疑。另一方面，我们目睹雪佛龙和埃克森美孚等大公司将四个公众名称从董事会中剔除——先锋自然资源公司、登伯里公司、PDC能源公司和赫斯公司。尽管采用的是全股权收购机制，溢价很少。

事实上，从各大石油公司获取巨额溢价的浪漫可能已经成为过去，但与此同时，美国石油产量增长的波动性应该会随着时间的推移而继续减少。私人对公共的整合通常会导致钻机合理化，以增加近期的自由现金。考虑到私营运营商对油页岩增长 9% 的贡献约为 5%，2024 年美国石油生产格局将受到私营运营商市场份额显着变化的严重影响，该份额从 2023 年初的 60% 下降至 52% %，此前私营钻机今年迄今下降了 32%，而上市公司则下降了 8%。 

自 2020 年底以来，钻机数量平均减少约 59%，私人运营商活动的下降应该会对页岩油的持续增长产生显着影响，特别是当公众继续整合 CrownQuest、Forge、Advance Energy 等公司的名字时，这些公司都是有意义的参与者在私人二叠纪竞技场。

美国页岩油在公共领域的前进道路现在将不可避免地采取较小规模的补强交易的形式来取代库存，因为私人领域的规模机会仍然有限，所有人都在关注奋进能源等公司的命运。随着公私合并时代理论上即将结束，公众名称现在将再次决定美国石油增长的路径，并更加关注开发效率、高品位和库存管理。 

随着世界再次消化令人惊讶的强劲美国石油产量以及其他几个全球宏观因素，可以公平地说，一个相对看跌的变量——私营公司页岩油增长——在进入 2024 年时将显着减弱。 

油价从 9 月底的 93 美元/桶左右回落至 12 月中旬的 72 美元/桶左右，这为美国公共运营商如何选择更受大型石油公司活动影响的行为方式提供了一个有趣的起点。

最终，2023 年的整合浪潮应该会对国内行业资本约束产生持续影响，这是自 2018 年底以来投资公众的一个关键目标。同时，2023 年生产力的提高为国内页岩油和全球石油行业提供了令人信服的背景。将较低层库存转换为较高层库存只能通过埃克森美孚等大型企业的公告进一步了解，随着他们的足迹通过收购而扩大，二叠纪盆地的回收率将大幅提高。2024 年美国油页岩篇章确实会引人入胜。

David Deckelbaum 是 TD Cowen 可持续发展和能源转型董事总经理。他居住在纽约市。

For shale producers, 2023 was a monumental year in terms of news flow. Thematically, public investors continued to focus on free cash generation and returns of capital to shareholders while considering the future of inventory depth. Public companies touted benefits of longer lateral designs as average lateral lengths observed across shale plays increased 3% in the Permian, 8% in the Eagle Ford and 1% in the Bakken. 

Coincidentally, for the first time in several years, oil productivity per-foot on average actually increased by 3% across all U.S. shale plays, following a relatively dramatic drop in per-foot productivity from 2021 to 2022. With most companies continuing to communicate relative maintenance programs, the market has responded with relative surprise to U.S. shale oil growth, now trending up 9% year-over-year as of the third quarter while the rig count on average has declined roughly 5% on average YTD and 20% since the beginning of the year.

At the end of the day, this dynamic is roughly half-explained by the growth witnessed in the private market as operators likely look to monetize to publics, while also benefitting from improved well performance, cycle times and enhanced well designs. Indeed, shale operators have improved operating efficiency while facing the narrative of limited inventory life.

Most public investors have scrutinized shale oil inventory depth and questioned the long-term sustainability of high return of capital profiles while weighing the risk of acquisitions. On the other hand, we have witnessed majors such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil taking four public names off the board—Pioneer Natural Resources, Denbury, PDC Energy, and Hess Corp.—albeit using all-equity takeout mechanisms with scant premiums.

Indeed, the romance of large takeout premiums from majors is likely a relic of the past, but at the same time, the volatility around U.S. oil production growth should continue to decrease over time. Private-to-public consolidation has typically resulted in rig rationalization to augment near-term free cash. Considering that private operators contributed to roughly 5% of the 9% oil shale growth, the setup for U.S. oil production in 2024 will be heavily influenced by a marked shift in private operator market share that dropped from 60% at the beginning of 2023 to 52%, following a 32% decline in private rigs YTD versus 8% for public companies. 

After averaging roughly 59% of the rig count since late 2020, the decline in private operator activity should have a noted impact on continued shale oil growth, particularly as publics continue to consolidate names like CrownQuest, Forge, Advance Energy and others, all meaningful players in the private Permian arena.

The path forward for U.S. shale in the public arena will inevitably now take the form of smaller bolt-on deals to replace inventory as limited opportunities in the private space remain for scale, with all eyes on the fates of names like Endeavor Energy. As the era of public-for-private consolidation theoretically comes to a near-term end, public names will now dictate the path of U.S. oil growth once again with an increased focus on development efficiencies, high-grading and inventory management. 

As the world digests surprisingly robust U.S. oil production once again, along with several other global macro factors, it is fair to argue that one relatively bearish variable—private company shale growth—was significantly diminished heading into 2024. 

Oil prices receded from north of $93/bbl at the end of September to about $72/bbl by mid-December, providing an interesting starting point for how U.S. public operators choose to behave that will be more heavily influenced by the majors’ activities.

Ultimately, the 2023 wave of consolidation should prove to have ongoing impact on domestic industry capital restraint, a critical goal of the investing public since late 2018. At the same time, the productivity gains experienced in 2023 provide a compelling backdrop for domestic shale and the conversion of lower tier inventory to higher tiers that will only be further informed by proclamations from larger players such as Exxon look to dramatically increase recoveries in the Permian as their footprint has grown through acquisition. The 2024 U.S. oil shale chapter should indeed prove to be a page-turner.

David Deckelbaum is managing director for sustainability and energy transition at TD Cowen. He is based in New York City.