尽管自由港液化天然气回归，美国天然气仍因天气转暖下跌 3%

尽管自由港液化天然气设施自去年关闭以来首次出口货物，但美国天然气期货仍下跌 7 美分，至 2.444 美元/MMBtu。

斯科特·迪萨维诺，路透社

2 月 13 日，美国天然气期货下跌约 3%，原因是产量增加，且预计未来两周天气温和，取暖需求低于此前预期。

尽管液化天然气出口量跃升至 2022 年 5 月以来的最高水平，此前一艘船从自由港液化天然气公司位于德克萨斯州长期闲置的出口工厂接收了一批货物，并且该工厂开始抽入更多管道天然气来冷却其三个液化列车之一，但价格仍出现下跌。

美国东部时间上午 11:30，3 月份交割的近月天然气期货下跌 7 美分，跌幅为 2.8%，至 2.444 美元/MMBtu。2 月 8 日，该合约收于 25 个月低点 2.396 美元。

美国第二大液化天然气出口工厂弗里波特于 2022 年 6 月发生火灾。该工厂的天然气流量有望在 2 月 13 日达到 0.5 Bcf/d，高于 1 月 26 日以来的平均 43 MMcf/d当时联邦监管机构批准了该公司开始冷却工厂部分部件的计划。

这仍然只是自由港在全功率运行时可以吸入约 2.1 Bcf/d 的天然气来制造液化天然气的一小部分。能源监管机构和分析师表示，自由港可能要到 3 月中旬或更晚才能恢复满负荷生产。

自由港的几个客户——日本的 JERA 和大阪天然气公司——表示，他们预计要到 3 月之后才能从该工厂获得液化天然气。

随着流向自由港的天然气量增加，流向美国液化天然气出口工厂的原料气平均量从 1 月份的 12.3 Bcf/天攀升至 2 月份迄今为止的 12.7 Bcf/天。相比之下，2022 年 3 月自由港关闭之前的月度记录为 12.9 Bcf/d。

然而，按日计，液化天然气原料气有望在 2 月 13 日达到 13.3 Bcf/d，这是自 2022 年 5 月自由港于 2022 年 6 月关闭之前以来的单日最高水平。

包括自由港在内的美国七大出口工厂可将约 13.8 Bcf/d 的天然气转化为液化天然气。

美国天然气产量

数据提供商 Refinitiv 表示，2 月份迄今为止，美国 48 个州的平均天然气产量降至 97 Bcf/d，低于 1 月份的 98.3 Bcf/d。相比之下，2022 年 11 月的月度记录为 99.8 Bcf/d。

然而，从日产量来看，2 月 11 日产量创下两周新高，达到 98.6 Bcf/d，德克萨斯州、新墨西哥州、俄克拉荷马州和宾夕法尼亚州等几个州的油气井在本月早些时候结冰后恢复运行。 。能源行业称产量下降是由于油井冻结造成的。

气象学家预测，除了2月17日至18日和2月23日至25日左右的几日寒冷外，2月28日之前天气大部分都会比正常温暖。

由于预计下周将出现三天寒冷天气，而本周仅为两天，Refinitiv 预测美国天然气需求（包括出口）将从本周的 119.2 Bcf/d 升至下周的 122.6 Bcf/d。这些预测低于 Refinitiv 2 月 10 日的展望。

然而，能源分析师指出，2 月底比正常天气寒冷的天气并没有像 1 月底寒冷那样刺激供暖需求。根据数据提供商 Refinitiv 的数据，1 月 25 日美国下 48 个州的 30 年平均气温约为 37 华氏度（3 摄氏度），而 2 月 25 日为 42 华氏度。

原文链接/hartenergy

US Natgas Fall 3% on Milder Weather Despite Freeport LNG Return

Despite the Freeport LNG facility exporting its first cargo since it shut down last year, U.S. natural gas futures still slipped by 7 cents to $2.444/MMBtu.

Scott DiSavino, Reuters

U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% on Feb. 13 on rising output and forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

That price decline came even though LNG exports jumped to their highest since May 2022 after a vessel picked up a cargo from Freeport LNG's long-idled export plant in Texas and the facility started pulling in more pipeline gas to cooldown one of its three liquefaction trains.

Front-month gas futures for March delivery fell 7 cents, or 2.8%, to $2.444/MMBtu at 11:30 a.m. EST. On Feb. 8, the contract closed at a 25-month low of $2.396.

Freeport, the second biggest U.S. LNG export plant, shut in a fire in June 2022. Gas flows to the plant were on track to reach 0.5 Bcf/d on Feb. 13, up from an average of 43 MMcf/d since Jan. 26 when federal regulators approved the company's plan to start cooling parts of the plant.

That is still only a fraction of the roughly 2.1 Bcf/d of gas Freeport can pull in to make LNG when operating at full power. Energy regulators and analysts have said Freeport will likely not return to full capacity until mid March or later.

A couple of Freeport's customers - Japan's JERA and Osaka Gas - have said they do not expect to get LNG from the plant until after March.

With the amount of gas flowing to Freeport rising the average amount of feedgas going to U.S. LNG export plants climbed to 12.7 Bcf/d so far in February, up from 12.3 Bcf/d in January. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 Bcf/d in March 2022 before Freeport shut.

On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to reach 13.3 Bcf/d on Feb. 13, the most in a day since May 2022 before Freeport shut in June 2022.

The seven big U.S. export plants, including Freeport, can turn about 13.8 Bcf/d of gas into LNG.

U.S. gas output

Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 97 Bcf/d so far in February, down from 98.3 Bcf/d in January. That compares with a monthly record of 99.8 Bcf/d in November 2022.

On a daily basis, however, production hit a two-week high of 98.6 Bcf/d on Feb. 11 as oil and gas wells return to service after freezing earlier in the month in several states, including Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Pennsylvania. The energy industry calls output declines from freezing wells freeze-offs.

Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through Feb. 28 except for a few cold days around Feb. 17-18 and Feb. 23-25.

With three cold days expected next week versus just two this week, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 119.2 Bcf/d this week to 122.6 Bcf/d next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Feb. 10.

Energy analysts, however, noted that colder than normal weather in late February does not boost heating demand by as much as cold in late January. The 30-year average temperature in the U.S. Lower 48 states is about 37 F (3 C) on Jan. 25 versus 42 F on Feb. 25, according to data provider Refinitiv.