报告称，“我们正处于深水钻井市场的转折点吗？”，活跃浮式钻井平台利用率已从 2018 年 65% 的低点反弹至 2023 年超过 85%，合同的超深水钻井平台数量（ UDW）良性钻井平台已恢复到新冠疫情爆发前的水平，一流浮式钻井平台的日费率在过去两年中翻了一番。

Wood Mackenzie 首席分析师莱斯利·库克 (Leslie Cook) 表示：“油价上涨、对能源安全的关注以及深水的排放优势支持了深水开发，并在一定程度上促进了勘探。现在活跃的供应更加符合需求，并且钻机现金流为正。我们预计需求将继续上升。”

预计增长大部分将来自拉丁美洲、北美和非洲的“老三角”以及地中海部分地区。Wood Mackenzie 预计，到 2027 年，这些地区将占全球浮式钻井平台需求的 75%。

最近的活动使过去一年的费率上涨了 40%，Wood Mackenzie 预计浮动日费率将进一步上涨 18%。年底前，对于高价值、优势超深水钻井平台来说，价格可能会恢复到 50 万美元/天或以上。2023年上半年，良性超深水钻井平台日均收入为42万美元，利用率为90%。

库克继续说道：“随着需求和价格的增加，我们正在接近新建和重新启动的临界点。我们还没有达到这个目标，但对于新建筑来说，这不是是否会实现的问题，而是何时实现的问题。脱碳、技术进步、提高效率以及最终更换车队的需求将推动一个新的周期。如果钻机经济保持强劲并且钻机公司看到合同风险减弱，那么这可能是宜早不宜迟的。”

在线阅读文章：https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/exploration/13062023/floating-rig-utilization-rebounds-to-pre-covid-levels/

According to the report, ‘Are we at the tipping point of the deepwater rig market?’, active floater utilisation has rebounded from a low of 65% in 2018 to over 85% in 2023, the number of contracted ultra-deepwater (UDW) benign rigs has returned to pre-COVID levels and day rates for best-in-class floaters have doubled in the past two years.

Leslie Cook, Principal Analyst for Wood Mackenzie, said: “Higher oil prices, the focus on energy security and deepwater’s emissions advantages have supported deepwater development and, to some extent, boosted exploration. Active supply is now more in line with demand and rig cash flows are positive. We expect demand to continue to rise.”

Much of this expected growth will come from the ‘Golden Triangle’ of Latin America, North America and Africa, as well as parts of the Mediterranean. Wood Mackenzie projects that these areas will account for 75% of global floating rig demand through 2027.

Recent activity has pushed rates up 40% in the past year and Wood Mackenzie anticipates a further 18% escalation for floater day rates. Before the end of the year, rates of US$500 000/day or above may return for highly-prized, advantaged ultra-deepwater rigs. Benign ultra-deepwater rigs have averaged US$420 000/day in the first half of 2023, with utilisation at 90%.

Cook continued: “With increasing demand and rates, we are approaching the tipping point for new builds and reactivations. We haven’t reached it yet, but for new builds, it’s not a question of if, but when. The need for decarbonisation, technological advancement, more efficiency and, ultimately, fleet replacement will drive a new cycle. If rig economics remain robust and rig companies see contractual risks abate, this could be sooner rather than later.”

Read the article online at: https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/exploration/13062023/floating-rig-utilisation-rebounds-to-pre-covid-levels/